Woohoo! This is fantastic. Previously it has only been possible to approximate the 2PP flow from most non-classic 2CP candidates.

Podcast #160 – One Nation surges in the polls Ben was joined by George Hasanakos from pollster DemosAU to discuss the surge in support for One Nation, which has pushed them ahead of the combined Liberal-National vote in a number of polls, as w…

The podcast is back for 2026. Yesterday I interviewed @georgehasanakos.bsky.social from DemosAU about the surge in support for One Nation, the split in the Coalition, and how pollsters will deal with these challenges #auspol

We have replaced the Two Party Preferred with Seat projections as the key election outcome metric in our polls.

More detail at this link: demosau.com/news/moving-...

#Auspol

Hanson Leads Ley as One Nation Surge Continues Support for the Coalition parties has continued to slide according to a new DemosAU poll which shows One Nation surpassing the Coalition by three percentage

Our latest federal poll in Capital Brief today.

(change since last election)

PV: ALP 30 (-4.6) ONP 24 (+17.6) L/NP 21 (-10.8) Grn 13 (+0.8) Oth 12 (-3.0)

Seat Projection: ALP 87-95 ONP 29-36 Lib 9-18 Nat 1-5 Grn 0-2 Oth 6-11

demosau.com/news/hanson-...

#Auspol

One Nation neck-and-neck with Coalition on primary vote, new polling shows DemosAU’s head of research, George Hasanakos, says it’s the first time a nationwide poll has shown a minor party on equal footing with a traditional party of government.

Here is the link to the Capital Brief report (paywalled): www.capitalbrief.com/article/one-...

As One Nation are joint second, we did a nation-wide ALP-ONP TPP which came out at 50-50.

This result was derived from the limited preference data available and should be treated with caution.

Poll shows One Nation Reaching New Heights - DemosAU New federal polling shows the Coalition and One Nation are tied on a 23 per cent primary vote while Labor’s vote has fallen to 29 per cent.

Our nation-wide Federal Poll out today as reported in Capital Brief.

Primaries (change since last election)
ALP 29 (-5.6)
L/NP 23 (-8.8)
ONP 23 (+16.6)
Grn 12 (-0.2)
Oth 13 (-2.0)

TPP: ALP 52 L/NP 48 (+3.2 to L/NP)

Our Post: demosau.com/news/one-nat...

#auspol

🚨 FIRST ON 6 NEWS: New polling from DemosAU shows the Coalition holding its lead in Victoria, while Brad Battin has increased his standing as preferred premier

The Greens are just 7% behind Labor in statewide upper house polling, while One Nation has risen from 2% to 11% since the last election

DemosAU: Liberals Increase Lead Ahead Of Budget Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/demo... #DemosAU: Liberals Increase Lead Ahead Of Budget #politas

Exactly. This why I only include parties that have track record of running in every seat in lower house polls. "Any other candidate" isn't perfect, but its best of the available options prior to close of nominations IMO.

FF at 5% while ON does well may not be so crazy. ON doesn't really play in the religious right space. While NSW had the CDP for decades which won 3-6% of the upper house vote and they aren't around anymore, so FF may be able to fill the void.

I am open minded on this possibility.

Still, we are in a moment where One Nation is shooting up. Essential today has them at 16% nationally (once undec are excluded), Redbridge had them on 14% a few weeks ago. 8-10% swing. A 9% swing in the upper house to them isn't so fanciful.

The people who don't really want to dwell on politics may be more likely to see elections as a binary major party choice. But this is a theory on my part.

I don't think its an issue with the sampling, because the lower house result is credible IMO.

In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.

Labor opens up big lead in NSW poll - DemosAU NSW Labor has jumped out to a large lead over the NSW Liberal National Coalition, leading 59 - 41 per cent on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis, according to

Our NSW State Poll out today. VI, PP & Top Issue.

Primaries (change since last election)
ALP 37 (nc)
L/NP 30 (-5.4)
Grn 13 (+3.3)
Oth 20 (+2.1)

TPP: ALP 59-41 (+4.7 to ALP)

Our post here: demosau.com/news/labor-o...

Full report here: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

#auspol #nswpol

LNP maintains clear lead over Labor in Queensland – new poll - DemosAU The Crisafulli Government maintains a clear lead over Labor in Queensland on the eve of its one year anniversary, leading 54-46% on a two-party preferred

Our Qld State Poll out today. VI, PP & issues.

Primaries (change since last election)
LNP 37 (-4.5)
ALP 29 (-3.6)
ON 14 (+6.0)
Grn 12 (+2.1)
Oth 8 (nc)

TPP: LNP 54-46 (+0.2 to LNP)

Our post here: demosau.com/news/lnp-mai...

Full report here: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

#auspol #qldpol

Our SA state poll in conjunction with Ace Strategies is out today with a headline TPP of 66-34 Labor.

We also have Upper House VI, Issue questions and personal ratings.

Full report: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

Opinion: SA political poll tells tale of two parties with a crushing blow - News | InDaily, Inside South Australia The team behind panini shop Aye Frank are bringing its little brother to Flinders Park, corner deli style with coffee, panini and pinball.

#DemosAU/Ace Strategies SA (state) ALP 47 Lib 21 Green 13 others 19
2PP 66-34 to ALP.

Follows a YouGov 67-33 in May.

Insane numbers. An Opposition that should be helped by federal drag is in danger of oblivion.

#saparli

www.indailysa.com.au/news/opinion...

The Battle for Inner Brisbane - DemosAU A new poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats points to a series of close contests, with a moderate swing towards Labor at the expense of the minor party and the

Our poll of Green held Brisbane, Griffith & Ryan shows a tight contest for the 3 seats that will have a big impact on the election result.

PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)

n: 1087

mode: internet panel

date: 7-15 Apr 25

Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...

#auspol

Politics is a popularity contest, but is it a personality hire? Politicians aren’t known for their warmth and rizz, but surely character traits have some sway on voting habits.

My comments on why the personality of leaders is important to voters but not the driving force.

"What is driving voters’ intentions is habits of a lifetime, the state of the economy, how well things are going for them, where they come from." #auspol

www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/que...

State Politics Poll (Change vs 2023 state election)

TPP: ALP 54 (-0.3) L/NP 46 (+0.3)

PV: L/NP 34 (-1.4) ALP 33 (-4.0) Grn 14 (+4.3) Oth 19 (+1.1)

Preferred Premier: Minns 42 Speakman 24

NSW going in right direction: Yes 38 No 43

#auspol #nswpol

Federal Politics Poll - NSW (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)

PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)

Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38

Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52

NSW Poll: Coalition has Edge Over Labor in Federal Contest The Liberal National Coalition holds an 51% to 49% lead over Federal Labor, according to DemosAU's latest NSW Poll.

Our NSW poll has a 2.4% TPP swing for the Fed L/NP.

State Labor is in decent position thanks to Minns and Greens absorbing vote losses

Federal TPP: L/NP 51-49

State TPP: ALP 54-46

Date: 24-26 Mar n: 1013

Full report and methodology statement here: demosau.com/news/nsw-pol...

#auspol #nswpol

The full Trustwatch report is at this link: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

6. High Court (27%)
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.

Which public institutions are trusted the highest to the lowest in Australia?

1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol

Federal Politics Poll - Vic (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)

PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)

Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37

Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55

#auspol #vicpol

State Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: L/NP 52 (+7) ALP 48 (-7)

PV: L/NP 39 (+4.5) ALP 25 (-11.7) Grn 15 (+3.5) Oth 21 (+3.7)

Preferred Premier: Battin 43 Allan 30

Victoria going in right direction: Yes 25 No 60

#auspol #vicpol

Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring

Our Vic poll provides hope for Fed Labor and the State Libs.

The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.

State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.

State TPP: L/NP 52-48

Federal TPP: ALP 51-49

Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006

More here: demosau.com/news/victori...

#auspol #vicpol