After a year of repairs, one of the world's most beautiful commutes - the Cascadilla Gorge trail to Cornell - is open again!

Opinion | NASA Flew by the Moon, but Behind the Scenes, Its Science Is a Chaotic Mess (Gift Article) Without science, the stunning images of Earth from space are only pretty pictures.

"Climate science is not innately politically charged, whatever the administration says. ... It was our job to study the laws of physics, which remain true no matter who’s in power." - Kate Marvel, Sr. Scientist, Project Drawdown

📰 Full article in the @newyorktimes: https://nyti.ms/4tBNtEf

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7) Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.

The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

RCP 8.5 Is Fine, Actually - Center for Progressive Reform While the high levels of fossil fuel emissions mapped in the RCP 8.5 scenario are unlikely, it remains an important scenario for modeling future climate impacts, particularly at local scales.

This excellent piece from @madisoncondon.bsky.social shows why (nerd alert!)—even if the scenario underlying RCP 8.5 is implausible, RCP 8.5 serves an important role in our understanding of and planning for climate change, and is therefore not misleading.

progressivereform.org/publications...

Indeed, wild to be in CO at this moment in time talking about our new 3km snowpack simulations.

Great visit to a great department! Lots of fresh ideas on what drives Southwest drying. Thanks Maria Rugenstein and CSU!

screenshot of a resignation letter expressing sadness at leaving NASA

My resignation letter

Just in: UCAR has filed a lawsuit against NSF, the Commerce Dept, NOAA, and OMB to prevent the dismantling of NCAR, alleging "violations of the Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act."

Trump Administration Readies Plans to Dismantle Renowned Science Lab

This should be the biggest weather and climate news on your radar today.

You can send an email today to say why dismantling NCAR is a bad idea for everyone: NSF_NCAR@nsf.gov

Me speaking at the Stand Up for Science rally.

Group posed with UCS posters plus Beaker.

Today we showed up.

Feeling proud of scientists and science supporters in this moment. Thank you all. #Standupforscience

This is going to be useful: The CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) for derived data from the CMIP archives:

dashboard.climate-ref.org

Still working out the kinks and focused on CMIP6, but will expand for CMIP7.

#CMIP2026

Trump Is Attacking Climate Science. Scientists Are Fighting Back. It’s easy, looking at the past year, to see the damage the administration has done. But researchers are also stepping up, trying to fill the gaps.

One year in the federal assault on climate science — a review and prospective

Hudson Bay polar bears took a big jump to the northwest this week. Why? I'm guessing favourable winds that made hunting that direction more effective (but we don't know for sure & it's something we're investigating).

Trump's Climate Supercomputer Plans Threaten US Insurance Market: Actuaries A new letter from the American Academy of Actuaries draws a direct line between the planned dismantling of NCAR and higher homeowners insurance costs for US consumers.

Need more industries to speak up against the attacks on NCAR.

www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...

Hudson Bay are well spread out & doing different things. One female (K) has moved close to shore. Bear C has emerged from a den - it's a bit early if she's got new cubs but we'll see if she stays there or moves onto the ice.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Hey folks, tried putting together a letter in direct response to the NSF unprompted decision. Feel free to offer suggestion or to add your name as a signatory, and thanks to those that did it alredy! Current text follows (errors all mine!)...

We ❤️ NCAR - Let's Save It! YouTube video by The Weather & Climate Livestream

Last December, weather and climate scientists sat down with us to tell us why they loved the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and why it benefits us all. Last night, the NSF began dismantling it. Listen to what they have to say, and why it's urgent that we #SaveNCAR wclivestream.com/act

*DEADLINE EXTENDED* February 8

Submit your suggestions and nominate (yourself or others) as a co-author for the 2026 edition of the 10 New Insights in Climate Science

Glad to hear. I’ve been missing your awesome loops.

🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question.

Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but …

Plot showing steadily increasing December temperatures in the Northeast US

I honestly thought December was way colder in the Northeast than what the numbers indicate. Seven mild Decembers in a row really messes up your perception...

Lego day (this past Wednesday)

Stop Guessing, Start Planning.
Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?"

The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
👇

Join UCAR President Antonio Busalacchi at a town hall meeting this afternoon at #AMS2026 to discuss the threats facing NSF NCAR.

https://bit.ly/3NNXHS5

What Americans Lose If Their National Center for Atmospheric Research Is Dismantled - Eos Five ways dismantling NCAR will cost the American people, and two ways to save it.

eos.org/opinions/wha...

Map centered on North America showing 2-meter temperature, jet stream, and stratospheric polar vortex for 12 UTC, 26 Jan 2026.

2-meter temperatures, jet stream (light blue), and stretched stratospheric polar vortex (dark blue), for 12 UTC, 26 Jan 2026.

Cascadilla Creek

We knew the NSF letter about NCAR would come. I think this is an occasion that will require great coordination and strategical thinking. UCAR should respond as a block, coordinating a response across universities (especially in the South, and large public universities that use NCAR data a lot)

A time series of the January–February frequency (in days) of the AKR regime from 1979 to 2025 using ERA5 data, based on the year-round classification of Lee et al. 2023 (J. Climate) updated through 2025.

The extreme cold across eastern N America is due to the Alaskan Ridge regime, which on average brings the coldest winter weather to this region.

Is this happening more often?

No. During the modern warming era, there has been no observed trend in the occurrence of this regime at this time of year.

Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming | PNAS Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth’s clima...

Really excited to see this paper out!! Led by @vtcoop.bsky.social we show that if you use cold and warm paleoclimates together, you can reduce uncertainty in Earth's climate sensitivity by quantifying the pattern effect and more precisely constrain future climate change www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Introduction to Climate Science Introduction to climate science is for college students of both science and non-science majors and for everybody interested in the topic.

Check out the new version of my climate science textbook. Free, accessible and online. Let me know what you think. open.oregonstate.education/climatescien...