Thanks for asking him Dan.
His answer seems logical. In the short period of time during the transition, variability will play a large part, but a trend between On and Off settings would play out in terms of cooling, precipitation and rain belt migration. Probably linearly I guess.
Foster & Rahmstorf have the current warming rate of 0.36º per decade which puts 2º by 2040, so 2º by 2050 would need things to decelerate somewhat.
Should be good
Could you ask him about the climate changes we are likely to see as the AMOC weakens. We have a fair idea about what happens after collapse from his earlier papers. But what can we expect in say 10 or 20 years time as it drops to say 50% strength by 2100? Think SLR, winter temps, rain
The paper also links the changes in marine ecosystem turnover and the size increase of marine mammals like the baleen whales to the increase in productivity.
The ash provided nutrients including iron and phosphorus which drove the biological activity. Today, artificial ocean iron fertilisation is one of the approaches being investigated to capture and sequester carbon dioxide in the deep oceans.
Ash clouds settling on the oceans driving increased productivity through the supply of nutrients and carbon dioxide sequestration are a key player in the late Miocene Cooling phase.
An interesting study links the prolonged volcanism in the Andean mountains between 7 and 5.4 million years ago to climatic cooling at the time.
Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
#paleoclimate #volcano #volcanicash #oceanfertilisation #OIF
One to watch 👇
The diagram is also a good way of explaining the need for net-zero, but more importantly the time to reach net-zero since its accumulated emissions that are important, not the date.
A key insight is that although today’s temperatures have been experienced before, and today’s CO₂ levels have been present before, they have never occurred at the same time.
The contrast to the Anthropocene and a realistic future scenario for the next 75 years is startling. It shows the hinge point where the start of the Industrial Revolution tore the planet off this geologically stable path into new unexplored territory.
A new diagram has been developed which helps explain the relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide levels. These have been in lockstep for the last 66 million years as CO₂ controls temperature.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-anthro...
#climatechange #paleoclimate #carbondioxide #netzero
Carbon sinks do not just weaken, they flipp all over the place into sources...
It's this principle that shows us that the terrestrial carbon sink is in the process to flip into
Important: they can flip into large GHG sources
Here the forest of Africa
Several studies now
#climate #earth
Super Typhoon Sinlaku just hit Cat 5 (~180 mph), now 2026’s strongest storm
What stands out:
• Rapid intensification
• Exceptionally early (2nd earliest at this strength)
• Supercharged by warm oceans
Climate signals aren’t subtle anymore...
As future ocean warming and increasing stratification exacerbates phosphate scarcity, the study predicts that this methane production and the resulting emissions will increase up to twofold, contributing to a suite of positive feedbacks between climate warming and natural greenhouse gas sources.
A new study has identified that emissions are linked to poor phosphate levels. Since this process is confined to the stratified low latitude surface waters, it is uniquely suited to efficiently release the methane it produces to the atmosphere (>90%), before it mixes to deeper water and oxidises.
Methane is usually produced biologically under low oxygen levels. However a “Marine Methane Paradox” exists where significant ocean methane emissions occur in well oxygenated areas.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#methane #climatechange #oceans #feedback #stratification
Would you like to know more about the #AMOC risk? Here is a recent peer-reviewed, open-access review paper by 22 AMOC experts:
wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
New study finds the "canary in the coal mine" for the #AMOC: a consistent decline of the western overturning circulation, down from 20 to 15 Sv during 2004-2023 at 26° N. 🌊
AMOC "could be at or near a critical tipping point, potentially leading to its collapse".
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This is an excellent short article about the shift we have caused to the stability of the climate system 👇
justdean.substack.com/p/human-caus...
If we wait until the economy is crippled by 2.5°C+ warming, we may no longer have the resources, the credit, or the political stability to launch it at all, let alone invest in crucial carbon removal.
If we intend to use SRM to prevent climate catastrophe in the 2040s, we must begin discussions, agree governance frameworks and seriously fund research, modelling and field trials now.
This form of Geoengineering is not a "break glass in case of emergency" button that we can press in 2039. It requires a custom fleet of high-altitude aircraft and, more critically, 20+ years of R&D and international governance to deploy safely.
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection looks like the only tool capable of shaving the peak of global temperatures. By injecting 10–20 million tonnes of sulphate into the stratosphere annually, we could theoretically offset the Earth’s energy imbalance and delay the 2°C threshold by roughly 20 years.
We have now entered the "Last Resort" era of climate policy. Mitigation, Adaptation, and CO2 Removal have all missed their windows to keep warming below 2°C. While these tools remain essential to "cure the disease," they can no longer prevent the "fever" from breaking the Paris goals on their own.
In this new article I look at how attitudes in the field of Solar Radiation Modification are changing and examine its role in delaying passing the 2ºC upper Paris goal.
#climatechange #geoengineering #SAI #SRM #CDR #Albedo #carbonbudget #tippingpoint
drtomharris.substack.com/p/solar-radi...
@paulhbeckwith.bsky.social has now posted his video review of the second article that @umsonst.bsky.social and I posted on Ocean Stratification.
This one covers the biochemical impacts of the changes underway in the World's oceans.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyxe...
#oceans #climatechange
Line graph time series of glaciers around the world for cumulative mass change since 1950 from a reference period of 1992. All areas are decreasing.
Cumulative change in the mass of glaciers from all around the world - preliminary data just updated through 2025 ☹️
Information on methods: wgms.ch/products_ref...
@paulhbeckwith.bsky.social does a fantastic job of reviewing and explaining our "Great Decoupling" article 👇
Thanks Paul!
Thank you for covering our article on your channel. It will greatly help to get the message out. 👍