The equatorial Pacific is slowly heating up - main reason seems to be weaker surface winds...

Permafrost Thaw is Warming the Global Climate and Impacts Communities, Health, and Oceans YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Here a video on the latest emission projections - cryosphere climate initiative pavilion at COP20 - the study is now being published...

At the right time when she comes to emission projections and in how far they are incorporated into IPCC assessments:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uAc...

7.5.7 Processes Underlying Uncertainty in the Global Temperature Response to Forcing There is robust evidence and high agreement across a diverse range of modelling approaches and thus high confidence that radiative feedbacks are the largest source of uncertainty in projected global warming out to 2100 under increasing or stable emissions scenarios, and that cloud feedbacks in particular are the dominant source of that uncertainty. Uncertainty in radiative forcing plays an important but generally secondary role. Uncertainty in global ocean heat uptake plays a lesser role in global warming uncertainty, but ocean circulation could play an important role through its effect on sea surface warming patterns which in turn project onto radiative feedbacks through the pattern effect (Section 7.4.4.3). On post-2100 time scales carbon cycle uncertainty such as that related to permafrost thawing could become increasingly important, especially under high-emissions scenarios (Figure 5.30). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-7/

This graph shows how far models are in la la land now if compared to observed developments

Ocean heat uptake drives now the surface warming via marine heatwave expansion and El Nino frequency and warming jumps, while new emission estimates from permafrost thaw till 2100 are now in runaway territory

Global drought extremes in 2025 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment In 2025, global annual drought affected ~30% of the global land surface. Near-record warming substantially increased evaporative demand, triggering widespread meteorological and soil moisture drought,...

In 2025, global annual drought affected ~30% of the global land surface. Near-record warming substantially increased evaporative demand, triggering widespread meteorological and soil moisture drought, even in regions where precipitation deficits were relatively intermediate

#climate #Earth

Deadly heat spreads fast now - it's torture for billions...

'The chances of you living 50 years are very small': Theoretical physicist explains why humanity likely won't survive to see all the forces unified Live Science spoke with Nobel prize-winning physicist David Gross, who recently received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics, about the quest to unite all the forces and w...

More and more see it...

"why uniting the four fundamental forces is so challenging, and why he thinks the major barrier to a theory of quantum gravity isn't science but humanity's time left on Earth."

We are heading now straight for collapse!

China full scale - anyhow the western Elites are demented now...

And then bring down GHG levels as fast as we can do it as at current GHG levels oceans will continue to take up more heat - cloud feedback likely continues driving ocean heat uptake

This has to be stopped with SRM via the stratosphere which is high risk - but what else there is?

The next year's will be the all decisive for humanity - react with all we've got or die out no middle ground anymore

Fun fact Zeke Hausfather posted a Modell result going off charts in terms of El Nino strength - think it still a bit early but for sure this system has now lots of potential and it will strike again massively. If it happens in 2026/27 we would have to react directly with all we've got or that's it

Look at nullschool how extreme it became in spring - spells trouble for European summer and for Eurasia - strengthens the meridional Temperatur Gradient in this area speeding up the jet with downstream effects all the way to the North Pacific...

But also maybe more likely we will see now a weakening signal to emerge from natural variability

Interesting subsurface freshening at some hundred meters deep strengthened deep convection in the irminger sea and Labrador sea - but changed now again

But all way more complex than models can simulate

Absolutely - currently I bet first a strengthening signal transporting more heat north producing more melt water which then leads to a shut down - a positive NAO we have, a strengthening inverse energy cascade to larger scales, stronger and more winter storms and summer sea ice loss Arctic Ocean

Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming Nice! We need more studies on the mechanics of the AMOC... Important here: oceans circulations are driven e.g. by… | Jan U... Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming Nice! We need more studies on the mechanics of the AMOC... Important here: oceans circulations are driven e.g. by horizont...

Some deep convection sites of the AMOC weaken while others strengthen - question is in how far this represents a more stable or a weaker AMOC?

All open till now

Anyhow the whole Earth system is now collapsing and that is the real story from which the AMOC collapse noise is distracting

#climate

A Final Warning to Planet Earth In Ripple et al. [1], 15364 scientists from 184 countries issue a ‘warning to humanity’ and present a radical agenda to protect planet Earth. We, the billions of people believing in human exceptionali...

A Final Warning to Planet Earth

A satiric warming to planet Earth, go fuck yourself, we want more stuff from 2018

Scientist issued more than a dozens of warnings the last decade that we enter now catastrophic Earth system change territory fast

Now we will pay the price if we do not act

#climate

Will be interesting in how far the heat, drought, and wildfire feedback will evolve if we get a serious El Nino event

Important: the strength of temperature jumps during El Nino depends increasingly on other feedbacks that synchronize during these events

Ah so It had not been you - thx anyway

Phosphate scarcity governs methane production in the global open ocean | PNAS The observed supersaturation of methane (CH4) in open-ocean surface waters implies widespread CH4 production within the well-oxygenated mixed layer...

Fun fact: phosphate scarcity is intensifying in the upper one hundred meters

Important: ocean net primary productions during past mass extinction events increased tremendously as the geological record shows

One study estimates this feedback strength at 2°C

So let's see

#climate #earth #oceans

Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago | Fortune In the 1980s, economist Robert Solow made an observation that reminded economists of today’s AI boom: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”

Greed is non linear related to stupidity as it blinds us

AI made that point cristal clear

Somehow hilarious how capital strips itself of all wealth

Fun fact: the more desperate it becomes the faster it goes as all what causes it is forced to continue...

#finance #capital #markets #AI #Earth

A ‘paradox’: Is climate change the biggest threat to renewable energy? Renewables have been touted as the silver bullet to tackling climate change, but can they withstand our warming planet?

It's the biggest threat to all our infrastructure

After the next temperature jump it's blackout time as nothing is prepared for the extremes to come

We seriously underestimated the increase and intensification

#climate #earth

Another indication that the non-linear spread, intensification, and persistence of marine heat waves is an overkill to marine life top to bottom...

"Mesothermic fishes face high fuel demands and overheating risk in warming oceans"

As we live on a rock planet this won't affect us

#oceans #climate

Global floating algae blooms are expanding - Nature Communications While phytoplankton are well studied and understood at the global scale, floating macroalgae are not. This study presents a comprehensive picture of the global distributions of floating macroalgae and...

As it is so important I post it again:

Floating algae spread in the global oceans

The real signal will be methane emissions..

How could the oceans emit vast amounts of methane if they do not today?

Just 5Mt with a vast potential

So go ahead fuck the oceans throughoutly...

#oceans #earth

Global subsidence of river deltas - Nature Spatially variable surface-elevation changes across 40 global deltas using interferometric synthetic aperture radar are reported.

Deltas sink faster than sea level rise - no prob. SLR will win eventually...

"we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas over the twenty-first century"

Affects just hundreds of millions of us

Oceans are undergoing a phase shift with large areas preconditioning for a larger heat release to the atmosphere as OHU shifts to shallower depths turning the oceans upper water column into a effective heat depot the atmosphere to tap into during synchronization events - all in the data visible now

P.s. ever heard of the spring time prediction barrier lasting till June?

Fun fact: the last El Nino had been a weak to moderate one with the main latent heating regions being located in the western Pacific and Caribbean Sea

You should start to warn that we trigger now an extinction level event if you would stick your head out of model results and look at the number and magnitude of non linear earth system changes which spread now all over the place

Models made us blind for the model defying reality on the ground...

Important: the next temperature jump will happen, if ocean heat uptake rates and increase in atmospheric GHG levels are taken into account it will likely be a larger one than the last one driven by the synchronization of feedbacks from where on the cascading feedback reaction will start for real...

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social–ecological transformations Abstract. Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies,

This message is central:

In the same way our collective actions drive the collapse of the biophysical Earth system our collective actions can reverse our path to extinction!

Important: as long as we did not tried it with all we've got we won't know if it hasn't been possible...

#climate #earth

Another expert opinion:

Extreme El Nino forecast premature...

The elephant in the room that is in all this chatter not addresses that another massive temperature jump will happen the coming years pushing the climate over the edge...

Important: we do not even need a extreme one...

#climate #earth

@cathobrian.bsky.social Hi you have the link to this web site where the warnings to humanity where collected?