This work formed part of my PhD with @drrachellowe.bsky.social and @adamjkucharski.bsky.social at @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social and was part of a great collaboration with the National Environment Agency of Singapore, thanks to all co-authors!

We also used this framework to estimate the impact of releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitos on dengue transmission, finding that ~28% of dengue cases expected in 2023 were averted following an expansion of the Wolbachia release programme.

We show that by incorporating information on changes in circulating dengue serotypes we can enhance the predictive ability of our forecasting model beyond climate data alone.

In Singapore, dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency and magnitude - climate-informed early warning systems can help to mitigate the impacts of these, but prediction of large outbreaks remains a challenge.

Using over 20 years of weekly case, climate and serotype data, we found that risk of dengue was highest during El Niño conditions and in the first few years following a change in the dengue serotype circulating in the population.

New study out in Nature Communications! In this paper, we disentangle the impact of climate variation and serotype changes on dengue dynamics in Singapore and present a forecasting framework able to predict outbreaks up to two months ahead 🦟
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Great to collaborate with @chantalvogels.bsky.social, Afeez Sodeinde and their team on this comprehensive work looking at dengue virus & Wolbachia interactions, making the case for considering DENV genetic diversity when implementing Wolbachia-based control interventions - key findings below! 🦠🦟

Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs | PNAS Uncovering rates at which susceptible individuals become infected with a pathogen, i.e., the force of infection (FOI), is essential for assessing t...

No one best way to measure #infection risk in populations.

Cross-sectional sero: weak temporal signal, CXR, waning as we know. Extra care needed for longitudinal #serology as Ab kinetics and assay noise can mess up estimates by a lot. Cases can be powerful!
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411768121

1/ 🎉 Thrilled to share our new study: Quantifying the impact of pre-vaccination titre and vaccination history on influenza vaccine immunogenicity 🦠💉 Published in Vaccine! link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1kD7x,60n7... with @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

A great opportunity to work with an incredible team! You may even get to label some cryotubes (as pictured below)