Aussie Dollar Surges as Rate Bets Shift Globally - Australian dollar posts strong monthly gains as global rate expectations shift. Yen weakens despite BOJ signals, while Fed and ECB...

Aussie Dollar Surges as Rate Bets Shift Globally
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#AUD slips for a 6th day as USD strengthens
Despite rising RBA hike bets (Feb odds growing) and higher inflation expectations, the Aussie stays under pressure. Meanwhile, fading Fed rate-cut hopes keep the USD firm.
🔎 Key level: 0.6500
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😨#AUDUSD Tanks to 0.6560!
US Dollar flexes strength — Aussie under pressure again!

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Australia Treasurer Chalmers says fall in AUD on concerns over China, and 4 RBA cuts Australia Treasurer Chalmers: * Fall in Australian dollar largely as a result of concerns about Chinese economy * Also reflects the fact that markets are now expecting around four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Australia dollar dives to five-year low as markets bet on big rate cuts SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian dollar dived to five-year lows on Monday, slammed by fears that a tit-for-tat global trade war would send the global economy into a recession, which had some traders bet on outsized rate cuts Down Under. The kiwi is in focus this week, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due to meet on Wednesday against the backdrop of heightened global uncertainties. Swaps imply there is a 22% probability that the RBNZ can cut by 50 basis points for a fourth straight time. Similarly for the Reserve Bank of Australia, markets see a 20% chance that the central bank could even deliver a big 50 bp rate cut in May, having just held steady last week. The Aussie is battling to stay above 60 cents, having plunged to a five-year low of $0.5933 earlier in the day. Combined with a 4.5% tumble on Friday, it is headed for the biggest two-day decline since early 2020, with support scant until the pandemic low of $0.5510. "In terms of the outlook for the Aussie, it is bleak, it’s dire and it could get worse from here unless things are walked back," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. "I mean there is no good option for the Aussie dollar if we’re going into a full blown trade war globally, and in particular with the frontline being tensions between China and the U.S.," Sycamore added. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and has countered U.S. tariffs with its own duties on U.S. goods. Asian stocks plunged on Monday. Chinese mainland stocks tumbled 4%, while Hang Seng index plunged 8.5%. The Chinese yuan - for which the Aussie is often sold as a liquid proxy - traded at the weakest level in two months. The kiwi dollar fared a little better, and was last down 0.3% to $0.5577. It tumbled 3.4% on Friday, with support now at the February low of $0.5515. The RBNZ will be the first central bank to react to U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world. The central bank has already cut the cash rate by 175 basis points since August last year and has guided markets that the next move on Wednesday will be a smaller 25 bps. "We expect the RBNZ to acknowledge these global risks," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, who is still sticking to the view of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday. "An escalation of the tariff trade war, should more countries retaliate, could stall our expected economic recovery. And such a scenario would require the RBNZ to push the cash rate below 3%." In bonds, Australia’s three-year government bond yields tumbled 11 basis points on Monday to 3.311%, the lowest since May 2023. It is set to post the biggest three-day drop since 2011. New Zealand two-year bond yields fell 10 bps to 3.253%, the lowest since August 2022.

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Analysis-The Aussie is losing its way as markets’ risk compass By Tom Westbrook and Stella Qiu SINGAPORE/SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Australian dollar’s surprising resilience in the face of the hit to market sentiment from U.S. tariffs is raising questions whether its long-standing role as a proxy for risk is ending. The Antipodean currency just notched its steadiest quarter for two years, rising almost 2% this year to around 63 cents, even as U.S. shares have dropped more than 4%. The breakdown in that correlation is slowing trade in the Aussie, hurting Australian investors in the U.S., and highlighting how U.S. President Donald Trump is rocking the pillars of financial markets. It is a consequence of an unusual turn in the U.S. dollar, which, says Bank of America currency strategist Oliver Levingston, has shot lower together with stocks for only the third time in 25 years. "It’s just not playing its game," said Nick Twidale, chief analyst at online broker ATFX, referring to the Aussie, adding that his firm is seeing a drop in trading volumes of the currency. "It feels like the Aussie has lost its correlation." The Aussie earned its reputation as markets’ "risk" proxy from Australia’s export profile, since Australia sells the raw ingredients of economic growth: iron ore, coal and gas. Over the four decades the currency has been freely convertible, the expectation that those bellwether exports justify it tracking the global mood has been self-reinforcing and earned it an outsized role in foreign exchange trade. Australia is the 13th-largest economy in the world and its currency is the world’s sixth-most traded. Now, according to analysts at Westpac, its relationship with U.S. stocks is weaker than at any time since the pandemic as Trump’s trade war accelerates what had been a slow but decade-long decline in the Aussie’s relationship with global risk. "Our conjecture is that Trump’s presidency has fundamentally rewired the relationship between currencies and equity risk metrics," Westpac’s head of foreign exchange, Richard Franulovich, said in a note published on Monday. The other big changes analysts point to in the past decade are the steady growth of Australia’s offshore investment portfolio, and a shift in reliance on commodities, with the result that Australia’s net international assets have surged. "The country is literally less leveraged to global growth compared to what it used to be, just from the balance of payments perspective," said Lachlan Dynan, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank in Sydney. CORRELATION SLIPS A risk proxy is a valuable tool, when it works. The Aussie has been an avenue to bet in either direction on the global economy and especially China, since China is Australia’s top export market, in a reliably liquid asset widely traded by companies, speculators and investors. Its utility declines, however, as it becomes less a faithful stand-in for risk, sending traders either to seek a substitute or change their expectation for the Aussie’s sensitivity. Data from CLS, the largest currency settlement system, shows there may be some move away. AUD/USD trading volume has been flat for four years while volume in nearly every other major pair has been trending higher. "We get interest from clients on cross-market type trades, when they would prefer to invest in Australia as opposed to taking risk in China," said Mark Elworthy, head of fixed income, currencies and commodities trading at Bank of America in Australia. "People are probably not looking for as big a move as they used to, so they’re well aware of the change in correlation...so some of the positions are larger than we would normally expect." According to Westpac’s research, the correlation between U.S. stocks and the Aussie dollar has fallen from above 0.6 in 2022 to below 0.4. The Aussie’s relationship with global risk across equities, commodities, credit and currency markets has been slowly falling since about 2013, Westpac found, which coincided with the beginning of a vast expansion in Australia’s offshore assets. Australia’s net foreign equity position hit a record A$656 billion ($412.76 billion) at the end of last year, up from around zero a decade earlier and tripling since 2022, Westpac said. The behaviour of a position of that scale in a major crisis is untested, but a possibility is that money flows back to Australia and puts upward pressure on the currency. At the same time, commodity exporters’ currencies are also decoupling from commodity markets, according to Huw McKay, former chief economist at BHP and now visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University in Canberra. He modelled the Australian dollar against the country’s terms of trade - the ratio of export to import prices - adjusted for inflation and interest rates, and found between 1996 and 2019 the Aussie had a correlation of above 0.8, under the model, and that it fell below 0.6 in the period between 2016 and 2023. He is not sure if it is a permanent shift, an aberration, or something in between. But in dealing rooms, traders are not waiting to find out. "You used to see a headline: ’Tariffs come out’ and you hit Aussie, or: ’Trump’s pulled back on his tariffs,’ and you buy," said ATFX’s Twidale. ($1 = 1.5893 Australian dollars) Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. 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Australian Dollar rises due to improved risk sentiment, US ISM Services PMI eyed The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground for the fourth consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.

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Will Trump's Policies Crash the AUD/USD? Analysis of a 9% Drop in 2024 and Predictions for 2025 - #WorldEye

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Australian Dollar Faces Pressure: Will AUD/USD Hit New Lows Amid Tariff Tensions? - #WorldEye

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Crack the Code of AUD/JPY Using Budget Balance Insights

The Secret Dance of the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen in Budget Balance Woes
Navigating the currency pair of the Australian Dollar (AUD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) #AUD/JPY #Australiandollar #budgetbalance
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Bloomberg: Some #hedgefunds are buying euros and #Australiandollar #call options in a bet that the US #currency will weaken if #Harris wins.
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Why #Australiandollar has plunged over past 2 weeks, & whether it'll bounce back #ausbiz #currencies #fx #aud