U.S.-China trade imbalances peaking as policies force change, BCA Research says Investing.com - The U.S. has long overconsumed and underproduced, while China has overproduced and underconsumed, according to analysts at BCA Research. But, in a note to clients, the strategists argued that this "decades-old imbalance" has been responsible for "chronic" account deficits in the U.S. and surpluses in China. But the trend has peaked and is beginning to show signs of reversing, particularly as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes to bolster American production capabilities "at the expense of [...] consumption," they said. "Trump’s trade, regulatory, and fiscal policies are beginning to change the composition of growth in the U.S. economy," the analysts said. The White House’s sweeping tariffs on imported items, as an example, serve as both "an explicit tax" on consumption of foreign goods by "an implicit subsidy" to domestic producers, they said. Meanwhile, they predicted that that the massive budget bill signed into law by Trump in July will reduce after-tax income for low-earning households, which have a higher propensity to consume. Conversely, higher-income Americans more keen to save will see their after-tax earnings increase, the analysts said. Even Trump’s broad crackdown on immigration could have a dampening effect on consumption by removing shoppers from the U.S. economy, they claimed. Although the latest indicators show that retail sales increased solidly in July, worries remain that a softening labor market and a possible tariff-fueled uptick in prices could weigh on consumer spending in the current quarter. The BCA analysts suggested real personal consumption expenditures are now following "a trajectory that is only seen during recessions." 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. "The almighty U.S. consumer is nowhere to be found in 2025," the analysts said. As a result, they argue, other countries are being forced to adjust their own growth models, with China especially now confronting a world without a strong U.S. consumer able to absorb its excess production. Beijing will likely need to stimulate household consumption domestically soon if it wants to avoid a "deep economic slowdown," they said, adding that a stronger Chinese yuan could "boost the purchasing power of households" in the country. Against this backdrop, they upgraded their outlook for the Chinese yuan to "overweight" from "neutral." The analysts also recommended that investors remain "underweight cash, netural on equities and overweight fixed income." The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

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France is in big trouble, again. Can the ECB save it? Investing.com -- France is once again at the center of Europe’s economic worries, with a new report from BCA Research warning that the country’s debt troubles are too severe for the European Central Bank to resolve. “France is in trouble,” BCA Research said. The warning comes just days before Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote on September 8, which his minority government is expected to lose. But BCA stressed that even if Bayrou survives, the underlying problem remains. France is carrying the highest debt burden in the G7 outside Japan. Government debt stands at 115% of GDP and private sector borrowing adds another 210%, lifting the country’s total debt ratio to 325%. Canada, at 310%, is the only major economy that comes close. According to BCA, “a total debt ratio above 300% tends to be unsustainable.” Debt sustainability ultimately depends on the relationship between growth, interest rates, and the primary deficit. On this score, France’s outlook is deteriorating fast. The report calculates that France’s deficit excluding interest payments cannot exceed 2% of GDP if debt levels are to stabilize. Yet, without sharp spending cuts or tax increases, the deficit is on course to reach 3.5%. “France has the worst primary deficit in the G7,” BCA said. Some investors may look to the ECB to ease the pressure, but the report argues that the central bank is powerless to address the country’s underlying solvency issues. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. “The ECB’s tools can solve a liquidity crisis, but they cannot solve a solvency crisis that requires a reduction in the government’s deficit and debt,” the brokerage noted. Lowering borrowing costs would only risk “rekindling a private sector credit boom” and making matters worse. Bond markets are already reacting. French government bonds, known as OATs, are underperforming against peers. UK gilt yields are offering record premiums over French paper, a sign of investors demanding more compensation for holding France’s debt. BCA advised investors to stay underweight OATs both relative to cash and to gilts. The brokerage warned that bond vigilantes are circling several advanced economies, but France is “the most vulnerable because of a toxic combination: a total debt ratio well above 300% plus the worst primary deficit in the G7 plus political gridlock.” Equities in Paris face risks too. The short-term picture is weak, though the longer-term case rests on global luxury and cosmetics companies that dominate the CAC 40. “The structural driver of the French stock market is not the French economy per se, but the outlook for its dominant sectors,” BCA said, pointing to LVMH and L’Oréal. ECB liquidity can’t solve France’s liquidity squeeze, but tough political decisions are required to deal with its solvency crisis. “France needs a political solution,” BCA warned, adding that “it may take the bond vigilantes to force France’s destiny.” The fastest way to find out is with our Fair Value calculator. We use a mix of 17 proven industry valuation models for maximum accuracy. Get the bottom line for LVMH plus thousands of other stocks and find your next hidden gem with massive upside.

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BCA recommends buying Peru dip, citing strong economy and policy space Investing.com - BCA Research has issued a recommendation to buy the dip in Peruvian assets, highlighting the country’s strong economic fundamentals despite upcoming political uncertainty. The research firm points to fiscal restraint, booming metals, and a weakening U.S. dollar as factors that will provide the next administration with significant policy space. BCA anticipates Peru will elect an anti-establishment president, noting that current fragmented polling likely understates support for populist candidates, particularly on the left. This electoral outcome could temporarily unsettle markets, creating buying opportunities for investors. The research firm emphasizes that Peru’s institutional framework will help maintain orthodox economic policies. The return to a bicameral Congress is expected to strengthen checks on presidential power and secure macroeconomic orthodoxy for at least the next few years. BCA acknowledges potential risks to global metals from escalating mining protests, blockades, and illegal gold activity that could threaten Peruvian metal output. Despite these concerns, the firm maintains a positive outlook on Peruvian assets. The research maintains a neutral external outlook, stating that Colombian tensions and U.S. tariff threats will not significantly impact Peruvian assets, while expected Chinese fiscal stimulus in coming months could provide support. BCA concludes it will look to buy into election-related market volatility. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 3 out of 4 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 98% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?

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Taiwan seen as "less likely" to derail U.S.-China trade talks, BCA Research says Investing.com - Disagreements over Taiwan are now less likely to derail trade discussions between the United States and China, according to analysts at BCA Research. At the moment, U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese goods now stand at 30% following a 90-day trade truce reached between the world’s largest economies earlier this year. The two had previously been conducting an escalating tit-for-tat tariff war that threatened to leave levies on both countries in the triple digits -- possibly imperiling global activity in the process. Washington and Beijing’s trade detente is set to expire on August 12, although U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has suggested that it would likely be extended by further 90 days. Still, Lutnick has refused to dismiss the chance of more tariffs on China being introduced, particularly as the White House ratchets up its scrutiny of countries -- such as India -- which buy oil from Russia. The U.S. and China are also at odds over Taiwan, a democratically governed island which Beijing has claimed as its own. Taiwan, traditionally with U.S. backing, has rejected the claim. However, in a note, the BCA analysts flagged that a recently failed recall election in Taiwan could ease the path ahead for U.S.-China trade negotiations. The recall campaign had looked to oust two dozen lawmakers in Taiwan who were in opposition to President Lai Ching-te -- a major proponent of a push to further separate the island from China. "Strategic tensions in East Asia, especially over Taiwan, posed the greatest threat to U.S.-China trade talks this year -- but recent political developments in Taiwan suggest that threat is falling," the BCA Research analysts wrote. "For now, [...] China is not forced to take military action against Taiwan, while the U.S. is not forced to reject trade talks with China for the sake of Taiwanese security." As a result, the BCA strategists led by Matt Gertken said there is a 55% chance of a U.S.-China trade deal being reached before the U.S. mid-term elections next year, or even as early as the fourth quarter of 2025. But they added that there remains a possibility that the talks will fall apart due to current U.S. threats of secondary sanctions on China. AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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Here’s why BCA Research says "markets are wrong on U.S. interest rates" Investing.com - Market forecasts for upcoming interest rate cuts are incompatible with ongoing one-year inflation expectations, according to analysts at BCA Research. Investors are currently pricing in more than one percent of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meetings over the next one-year period, driven in part by a recently weak employment report, the strategists led by Dhaval Joshi argued in a note. This would bring borrowing costs below 3.3%, where markets expect inflation to stand in one year, according to Bloomberg and CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) data cited by BCA. "These two market expectations are inconsistent with one another because if inflation does run at 3.3%, then the Fed will be unable to deliver that magnitude of rate cuts," the analysts wrote. "And if the Fed can deliver that magnitude of rate cuts, then inflation is unlikely to be running at 3.3%." The comments come as debate is swirling around the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Some Fed policymakers, echoing strident demands from President Donald Trump, have called for immediate cuts, arguing that this would help bolster the labor market. However, it remains unclear if July’s soft employment report was fueled by a fall in hiring demand or decline in available workers due to a crackdown on illegal immigration by the White House, the BCA analysts said. If it is the former, a rate cut could be effective to spur spending and investment, but a reduction may not aid solving a drop in the supply of workers, they added. Meanwhile, inflation above the Fed’s 2% has been cited as a reason to leave rates steady -- and many Fed officials have flagged uncertainty around the impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda on price gains. Recent economic figures have suggested that the levies are starting to feed into the costs of some goods, although headline inflation has stayed relatively muted. Against this backdrop, the BCA analysts recommended "neutral allocation to bonds until there is a genuine worsening in cyclical U.S. unemployment," as well as taking a long U.S. dollar-to-Hungarian zloty position to "play a technical rebound" in the greenback. "[F]or stocks, given their recent near straight-line rally, we are taking August off before reassessing our cyclical allocation at end month or in September," the BCA analysts said. Before you buy stock in CME, consider this: ProPicks AI are 6 easy-to-follow model portfolios created by Investing.com for building wealth by identifying winning stocks and letting them run. Over 150,000 paying members trust ProPicks to find new stocks to buy – driven by AI. The ProPicks AI algorithm has just identified the best stocks for investors to buy now. The stocks that made the cut could produce enormous returns in the coming years. Is CME one of them?

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Impact of trade war on U.S. economy yet to be felt, BCA Research says Investing.com - The full impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs on the country’s economy has yet to be felt, but recent easing in financial conditions should provide some support for demand, according to analysts at BCA Research. Economists have warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could drive up inflationary pressures and weigh on broader economic activity. However, reports this week have painted a picture of an American economy that seems to be on solid footing despite some observers expecting to see a slowdown in the coming months. On Thursday, retail sales figures were stronger than anticipated, while weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts. Inflation also stayed broadly in line with expectations in June, although the tariffs seem to be pushing the prices of some goods higher. A key August 1 deadline for Trump’s elevated "reciprocal" tariffs to take effect looms large, with the White House suggesting that some new agreements with individual countries could be coming before that date. So far, preliminary trade deals have been reached with a handful of nations, including the United Kingdom, China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Others, including major U.S. trading partners like the European Union, have yet to reach a pact to avoid Trump’s heightened levies. Writing in a note to clients, the BCA analysts argued that "where the U.S. economy goes from here will depend on the balance of forces affecting it." "On the one hand, the full impact of the trade war has yet to be felt," the analyst said. "On the other hand, the easing in financial conditions since mid-April should bolster demand, as should the prospect of fiscal stimulus not just in the U.S., but also in Germany and China." For the U.S. economy to avoid either "overheating or further cooling," these forces would need to largely offset each other, they added. While the strategists do not anticipate that this "Goldilocks scenario" will transpire, they noted that it "cannot be ruled out." As a result, they recommend investors have "only a modest underweight to stocks." "We continue to wait until we see the ’whites of the recession’s eyes’ before turning fully defensive," the BCA analysts wrote. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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Trump’s trade war spurs $1.60 pound target, $200K Bitcoin forecast at BCA Research Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies will "cancel out" a Brexit-linked weakening of the British pound and take sterling back to the level it was trading at before the U.K. chose to leave the European Union, according to BCA Research. In a note to clients, the strategists argued that the loss of U.S. "exceptionalism," the belief among some market participants that U.S. assets will outperform their global peers, in American stocks and bonds because of Trump’s erratic tariffs will "put downward pressure" on the dollar. The pound would likely be a "big winner" should this slide in the dollar transpire, they added. Following Britain’s decision to exit the EU in 2016, the pound dropped against the greenback as investors fretted over the U.K.’s position as a "privileged haven" for assets, the BCA analysts said. But, they said, "the tables have turned" after Trump embarked on a campaign to raise tariffs on a host of countries that has threatened to upend the global trading order. Should the U.S. effectively carry out its own departure from the world trade, the U.S. could suffer the same loss of "privileged haven status" as Britain did, the analysts flagged, adding that this would result in a "structural dislocation in the dollar." "Given that an exchange rate is a relative price, ’America’s Brexit’ will cancel out ’Britain’s Brexit,’ and take pound/dollar back to its pre-Brexit range" of between roughly $1.50 to $1.80, they wrote. For that reason, the BCA analysts asid they are now "long pound/dollar" and "fully expecting" the pound to reach $1.60 "within the next couple of years." On Friday, sterling was last trading at $1.3477. Meanwhile, an exodus from the U.S. dollar may also mean a boost to Bitcoin, they said, predicting that the world’s most well-known cryptocurrency could climb to $200,000 in the "next couple of years" from its current level of $106,428.2. Regardless of the potential for a slump in the digital token, this surge in Bitcoin "remains one of our high-conviction structural long positions," the analysts said.

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The Fed has split into two camps over future interest rate path, BCA Research says Investing.com - The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate projections show that policymakers have largely split into two camps, according to analysts at BCA Research. In a note to clients, the analysts flagged that seven participants on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are expecting no interest rate cuts this year, while eight are anticipating 50-basis points in reductions by the end of 2025. The first group is placing greater emphasis on the risk that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda will spur a sustained uptick in inflationary pressures within the next couple months, while the second believes the impact of the levies will be more "transitory," the strategists said. The analysts added that they fall more into the second line of thinking, arguing that while they "fully expect to see tariffs impact inflation more meaningfully [...] the fact that prices were so well contained in May suggests that firms aren’t looking for any excuse to lift prices and will only do so reluctantly once tariffs force their hands." "This is not the sort of environment where you would expect an expectations-driven inflation spiral to emerge," the analysts said. On Wednesday, the Fed chose to leave interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following the conclusion of its latest two-day meeting, although official projections indicated that policymakers still expect to draw down borrowing costs this year. In an update to its all-important "dot plot", two 25-basis point rate cuts were broadly seen this year, matching prior predictions in March and December. Yet the pace of reductions next year and in 2027 was slowed, signalling that the Fed could be gearing up for a longer fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Chair Jerome Powell warned that the impact from Trump’s tariff push is likely coming, and could lead to a "meaningful" uptick in consumer price growth. Powell added that "no one holds these [...] rate paths with a great deal of conviction." Many economists have recently said that Trump’s punishing levies could refuel inflationary pressures, dent labor demand and weigh on wider activity. Policymakers now anticipate that inflation will end 2025 at 3%, above its current level, while growth is tipped to decelerate to 1.4% and unemployment is expected to edge up to 4.5%. The projections paint a picture of relatively modest stagflation, a period of elevated prices and tepid economic activity. Following the announcment, the BCA Research analysts recommended that bond investors maintain "above-benchmark portfolio duration on a cyclical investment horizon and hold duration-neutral 2-year/10-year Treasury curve steepeners." "We also continue to hold a tactical short position in the January 2026 fed funds futures contract," they said.

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The Fed has split into two camps over future interest rate path, BCA Research says Investing.com - The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate projections show that policymakers have largely split into two camps, according to analysts at BCA Research. In a note to clients, the analysts flagged that seven participants on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are expecting no interest rate cuts this year, while eight are anticipating 50-basis points in reductions by the end of 2025. The first group is placing greater emphasis on the risk that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda will spur a sustained uptick in inflationary pressures within the next couple months, while the second believes the impact of the levies will be more "transitory," the strategists said. The analysts added that they fall more into the second line of thinking, arguing that while they "fully expect to see tariffs impact inflation more meaningfully [...] the fact that prices were so well contained in May suggests that firms aren’t looking for any excuse to lift prices and will only do so reluctantly once tariffs force their hands." "This is not the sort of environment where you would expect an expectations-driven inflation spiral to emerge," the analysts said. On Wednesday, the Fed chose to leave interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following the conclusion of its latest two-day meeting, although official projections indicated that policymakers still expect to draw down borrowing costs this year. In an update to its all-important "dot plot", two 25-basis point rate cuts were broadly seen this year, matching prior predictions in March and December. Yet the pace of reductions next year and in 2027 was slowed, signalling that the Fed could be gearing up for a longer fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Chair Jerome Powell warned that the impact from Trump’s tariff push is likely coming, and could lead to a "meaningful" uptick in consumer price growth. Powell added that "no one holds these [...] rate paths with a great deal of conviction." Many economists have recently said that Trump’s punishing levies could refuel inflationary pressures, dent labor demand and weigh on wider activity. Policymakers now anticipate that inflation will end 2025 at 3%, above its current level, while growth is tipped to decelerate to 1.4% and unemployment is expected to edge up to 4.5%. The projections paint a picture of relatively modest stagflation, a period of elevated prices and tepid economic activity. Following the announcment, the BCA Research analysts recommended that bond investors maintain "above-benchmark portfolio duration on a cyclical investment horizon and hold duration-neutral 2-year/10-year Treasury curve steepeners." "We also continue to hold a tactical short position in the January 2026 fed funds futures contract," they said. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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BCA Research: Should global investors prepare for a post-U.S. world order? Investing.com - The geopolitical climate is transitioning away from one centered around the United States and towards a more "multipolar" world, according to analysts at BCA Research. In a note to clients, the strategists led by Juan Correa and Marko Papic argued that the current state of play in geopolitics -- what they called "the operating system software" -- is largely geared towards a "unipolar" world, where one country acts as a hegemon presiding over global events. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has largely played this part, while its economy has morphed into a "consumer of last resort" geared towards imports and consumption, the analysts added. However, evidence that this era of U.S.-dominated "unipolarity" is coming to an end is "all around us", they said, citing in part a perceived rise in international conflicts and less concentration of military procurement in one country. "While the data is not definitive of what kind of a world is emerging, we can confidently say that it is not a unipolar world and, less confidently, that it is likely to be multipolar," the analysts said. They defined this ordering as a global system that lacks one or two superpowers capable of enforcing rules and norms of behavior -- and is instead populated with multiple players, "each capable of pursuing an independent foreign policy". Against this backdrop, the U.S. cannot remain the central destination for foreign capital flows, suggesting that "the next five-to-ten years will be a decade of transition, during which the world will see the global macro [...] balances shift", the analysts said. In particular, this evolution may see a move in the U.S. away from consumption, an uptick in European Union investment and an increase in consumption in China, they said. Such a period of change would likely impact investors by driving up benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, devaluing the U.S. dollar, and leading to an underperformance in U.S. equities compared to their overseas peers, the analysts added. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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This group of stocks offers a ‘trade war shield,’ says BCA Research - CNBC This group of stocks offers a ‘trade war shield,’ says BCA Research  CNBC

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BCA Research sees U.S.-Canada trade deal as imminent hereremove ads CAD/MXN Latest comments Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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We're on recession watch here at #bcaresearch, looking for signs that rising tariffs and consumer weakness are leading to cracks in the US labor market. Not much evidence of this in the data so far as hiring has been roughly flat for the past few months (note that JOLTS data only go to January).

#bcaresearch 🤖📊
For investors, AI’s likely impact is important not just for productivity growth but also for equity valuation. We evaluated what AI growth expectations were priced into US stocks in a July 2024 Bank Credit Analyst report and found that they are substantial. 1/6

#bcaresearch
📉Prior to the pandemic, the correlation between stock prices and bond yields was positive for many years. Starting in 2022, it turned negative, meaning that most months saw either rising stocks and lower yields, or vice versa. 1/2

For all the recent talk about the retreat of remote work, it is worth noting that office occupancy indexes remain at levels that have prevailed over the past two years. Same story in the DC area (for now). I'll be watching this for signs of a meaningful improvement. #bcaresearch

#bcaresearch
Are tariffs inflationary? The question seems like it has an obvious answer: if you put a tariff on imported goods, at least some of that will be passed on by the importer to the customer in the form of higher prices.

#bcaresearch After a selloff in January that was only partially caused by the DeepSeek scare, US growth stocks rebounded versus value so far this month. NVIDIA's earnings report next week will no doubt be an important near-term driver,

Meanwhile, the equity market today is much more expensive than it was in 2018. This is a bad combination for equity investors. #bcaresearch

January CPI and higher long-term inflation expectations have probably spooked the Fed. Delayed cuts alongside concerns about tariffs is a toxic combination for stocks if tariffs disrupt global economic activity (as I expect). 2018 stock market selloff on steroids! #bcaresearch

The tariff announcements over the past two weeks have made it evident that a replay of 2017 is not in the cards. Import tariffs are negative for growth, and will likely weigh on manufacturing activity just as they did in 2018. #bcaresearch

At the start of the US shale revolution, oil traded around $150/bbl in today’s prices. That, in combination with vast untapped domestic supply, led to a huge increase in US oil production. Doubtful that can be achieved again simply through deregulation. #bcaresearch

Will Sec Bessent be able to engineer a disinflationary boom like what occurred in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s? The idea seems to rest on a big decline in oil prices, but I strongly doubt that can be achieved with domestic oil production alone. #bcaresearch

While the Q4 productivity and costs release is preliminary, for now it supports my view that AI is not yet leading to a productivity surge in the US. 3-year growth shown to minimize cyclical effects. #bcaresearch

I will now start posting on BlueSky some of my thoughts and work that I am doing at #bcaresearch. My timing is perhaps strange given that we're at the start of a trade war, but i am going to go with the mantra that there is no time like the present!

BCA Research predicts Bitcoin could surpass $200,000! 🚀 According to the 260-day fractal analysis, Bitcoin's structural uptrend continues with more growth potential. 💹

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