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US battery autonomy will upend EV hierarchy Joe Biden’s push to reshore production of cells for cars and energy storage worked: the US is on the cusp of overcapacity. But the real winners will be Korea’s LGES, Samsung and SK On. Their $20 bln i...

Predictions 2026: US battery autonomy will upend EV hierarchy www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Why investors will learn to love government bonds Global state debt has hit $100 trln, and borrowing costs have wobbled for Britain, France and the US. But if inflation keeps cooling and central banks cut rates, 2026 may be different. Bond investors ...

Predictions 2026: Why investors will learn to love government bonds www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Why a US investment in Boeing would make sense The 737 jet-maker is the largest single US exporter and a key defense supplier. Rising international rivals and production woes threaten its national champion status. President Trump’s state capitalis...

Predictions 2026: Why a US investment in Boeing would make sense www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Tokenisation boom will stall in bank back offices The market for logging assets on blockchains may soar to $2 trln by 2028, analysts reckon. Advocates say it hands consumers control over money and markets. But lenders, not ordinary people, are in pri...

Predictions 2026: Tokenisation boom will stall in bank back offices www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Private credit will become plain old credit Ares, Blackstone and others dominated the business of funding leveraged buyouts after the pandemic. Now bank-led bond and loan markets are back and more competitive. Terms will keep converging between...

Predictions 2026: Private credit will become plain old credit www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Xi’s value push will show up in Chinese stocks President Xi Jinping’s campaign to end ruinous price wars and curb overcapacity in the world’s second-largest economy will fatten corporate profits. If it lasts, that could turn mandated payouts into ...

Predictions 2026: Xi’s value push will show up in Chinese stocks www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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How a Poland-Russia flashpoint would rouse Europe Polish leader Donald Tusk has warned that he will respond to incursions into his country’s territory. This raises the possibility of Warsaw shooting down a Russian jet in 2026. That would make EU lead...

Predictions 2026: How a Poland-Russia flashpoint would rouse Europe www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Renewables turn LNG glut into a sinkhole Drillers from Exxon to Shell aim to boost global supply of the fossil fuel by 50% by 2030. Yet demand in key markets like China is falling. And hopes of gas replacing coal power look misplaced as sola...

Predictions 2026: Renewables turn LNG glut into a sinkhole www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Chatbots find their voice as audio assistants rise Siri, Alexa and other virtual assistants are turning from clunky robots into smart agents, while $500 bln OpenAI may be working on a speech-based device of its own. As audio models improve, users will...

Predictions 2026: Chatbots find their voice as audio assistants rise www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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India begins to ponder life after Narendra Modi The prime minister will be halfway through his third term by the end of 2026. A fourth stint in office is possible but improbable as anti-incumbency is likely to rise. Modi’s tenure has delivered an e...

Predictions 2026: India begins to ponder life after Narendra Modi www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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How to use empty data centers after an AI crash Construction of US server farms has risen eightfold from 2019, raising the risk of a bust if chatbots fizzle. In this fictional podcast transcript, Breakingviews imagines an IPO pitch from made-up ent...

Predictions 2026: How to use empty data centers after an AI crash www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Graduate job cull spells doom for college degrees Graduate unemployment is now higher than wider US jobless rates. For many young people, that makes it harder to justify the $500,000 cost of college. In 2026, universities will suffer financially as w...

Predictions 2026: Graduate job cull spells doom for college degrees www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Marc Andreessen will summon NYC swagger for IPO His VC firm is known for placing big bets on AI and crypto. With $46 bln in assets, it’s big by west-coast standards, but not compared to New York’s buyout barons. Listing could help close the gap. A ...

Predictions 2026: Marc Andreessen will summon NYC swagger for IPO www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Labubu blockbuster ambitions have an M&A solution Parent Pop Mart’s falling shares have upped the pressure to milk its toothy plush doll’s viral success. The toymaker wants to imitate Disney but making movies or running theme parks can be hit or miss...

Predictions 2026: Labubu blockbuster ambitions have an M&A solution www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Donald Trump will bail out crypto holders in 2026 Digital tokens like bitcoin gained $1.2 trln in value in the 12 months after the US president won re-election. If a major stablecoin or exchange fails, the president has strong political and financial...

Predictions 2026: Digital tokens like bitcoin gained $1.2 trillion in value in the 12 months after Donald Trump won re-election. If a major stablecoin or exchange fails, the U.S. president has strong political and financial reasons to help out www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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FIFA’s World Cup payday has a big Trump caveat Soccer’s governing body expects $9 bln of 2026 revenue, up 50% from the last competition in 2022. It’s premised on booming ticket and hospitality income thanks to mega-stadiums in the US, a key host c...

Predictions 2026: FIFA’s World Cup payday has a big Trump caveat www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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AI data crunch speeds towards Napster moment Machine-learning models like Alphabet’s Gemini have largely been trained on troves of borrowed words, tunes and photos. Mounting lawsuits, however, threaten to reprice creative output from the $3 trln...

Predictions 2026: AI data crunch speeds towards Napster moment www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Defence tech shakeout will cement bigwigs’ primacy Europe’s rearmament has spawned hundreds of startups, selling drones in particular. In 2026, nervy state buyers mean that public contracts will likely go to deep-pocketed new stars like $31 bln Anduri...

Predictions 2026: A defence tech shakeout will cement bigwigs’ primacy www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Larry Ellison’s AI war tactics will backfire The billionaire’s aggression, much of it derived from Sun Tzu, has served him well for decades. Pivoting Oracle into machine learning is his latest bold move. But counting on overextended OpenAI while...

Predictions 2026: Larry Ellison’s AI war tactics will backfire www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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AI’s 2026 dark horse will be open-standard chips Processors featuring the free RISC-V architecture account for $52 bln in sales, or just a tenth of the total. That’s set to change as Western and Chinese chipmakers seek alternatives to Arm. Recent en...

Predictions 2026: The AI boom will upend how chips are made. RISC-V, pronounced ‘risk five’, is a niche technology at present – but could have its breakout moment in the year ahead www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Bank of America looks ripe for activist treatment Shares in the lender run by Brian Moynihan have trailed many of its big rivals in past years, while the valuation discount to JPMorgan has swollen. A pushy investor could nudge the veteran boss to dou...

Predictions: Bank of America shares have trailed many of its rivals in past years, while the valuation discount to JPMorgan has swollen. In 2026, an activist investor could nudge the lender to double down on consumer banking to beat an underwhelming 16%-18% returns target reut.rs/4s8Jxej #BVPredicts

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Get ready for the biggest M&A deal ever Abundant capital, flexible trustbusters and bolder CEOs have galvanized a mega-merger spree. AI mania and the record $55 bln EA buyout further prime the market for a combo that tops $200 bln AOL-Time ...

Predictions 2026: Abundant capital, flexible trustbusters and bolder CEOs have galvanized a mega-merger spree.

Next year could see a combo that tops $200 billion AOL-Time Warner or Vodafone-Mannesmann.

Breakingviews imagines a few jumbo prospects www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-...

#BVPredicts

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The BOJ will win Takaichi’s game of fiscal chicken Japan’s new prime minister wants more spending to boost growth and the central bank to pause tightening. But government bond sales will weaken the yen and drive up import costs. That will sharpen pric...

Predictions 2026: The BOJ will win Takaichi’s game of fiscal chicken, writes @hudsonlockett.bsky.social: www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

#BVPredicts

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Breakingviews - Scott Bessent will be the real next Fed chair The US Treasury Secretary’s tight grip on picking Jerome Powell’s replacement previews a new era for the central bank. A Bessent-led review of the Fed’s $6.6 trln balance sheet and bank regulations me...

It's the most wonderful time of the year...when the @breakingviews.reuters.com team unwraps its predictions for the 12 months ahead. The 13 Days of Predictions kicks off with @gaberubin.bsky.social looking who will hold real power at the Federal Reserve. #BVPredicts
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

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Scott Bessent will be the real next Fed chair The US Treasury Secretary’s tight grip on picking Jerome Powell’s replacement previews a new era for the central bank. A Bessent-led review of the Fed’s $6.6 trln balance sheet and bank regulations me...

Predictions 2026: Scott Bessent’s tight grip on the selection process for the next Fed chief means that, whoever gets the job, the U.S. Treasury Secretary will effectively be in the chair www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... #BVPredicts

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Hottest 2026 board member? Artie Fishlin Telijentz He’s ready to work at all hours and will never miss a meeting. No other corporate director is as well-versed about the company or the market. The candidate nicknamed AI also can be dispassionate when ...

Predictions 2026: Tech-savvy board directors are already using large language models to prepare for meetings, summarize proceedings and even plot strategy. The next step is to give AI an official seat at the table www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts

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Buyout barons’ new data centre bet: dull utilities BlackRock’s $38 bln bid for AES highlights the value in groups that power data centres. Cash-rich infrastructure funds may next train their sights on US players like Evergy, while Europe’s conglomerat...

Predictions 2026: Private equity’s AI dealmaking quest could take a surprising turn next year – utilities www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... #BVPredicts @ywchen.bsky.social

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