#CEPRParis2024

On 15 December 2024, Mario Draghi delivered an important address at a dinner, held alongside the 3rd CEPR Paris Symposium. The speech has now been published as CEPR Policy Insight 137: Europe: Back to Domestic Growth, shedding light on Europe's economic challenges and the reforms needed to revive its competitiveness and growth trajectory. Here are some of its takeaways: 1️⃣ Revitalising Domestic Demand Europe’s reliance on external demand and low wages is no longer sustainable. Draghi underscores the need to pivot towards strengthening domestic demand through increased public and private investment, particularly in innovation-driven sectors like technology. He links high demand pressure to productivity growth by fostering procyclical R&D and innovation. 2️⃣ Completing the Single Market Fragmentation within the EU’s single market significantly constrains economic potential. Internal barriers act as implicit tariffs, limiting productivity and trade opportunities. Reducing these barriers to US levels could boost EU productivity by up to 7% within seven years. 3️⃣ Integrating Capital Markets Europe’s bank-based financial system is ill-suited to support young, innovative firms that often require flexible and high-risk financing. With venture capital and underdeveloped institutional investors favouring US markets, reforms are needed to attract funding. These include fostering innovation, easing equity financing, and issuing EU debt jointly to create additional fiscal space that could be used to limit periods of below-potential growth. By making the case for rethinking both fiscal policies and structural reforms, Draghi has reignited the conversation about Europe’s future growth strategy. #DraghiReport #Policy #Europe #EU #EconomicGrowth #Innovation #Competitiveness #Economics #CEPRParis2024

At #CEPRParis2024, Mario #Draghi delivered an important speech where he emphasised 3 key areas of improvement for #Europe going forward: revitilising domestic demand, completing the single market, & integrating capital markets.

Read the full address here: cepr.org/publications...

A clear-eyed analysis of the looming weaknesses of the European model and a manifesto on how to move forward.

Powerful speech by Mario Draghi at #CEPRParis2024

On 15 December 2024, Mario Draghi spoke at a dinner hosted by CEPR, in association with its 3rd Paris Symposium, about his recently published report on the future of European competitiveness. Domestic growth in Europe has been well below what could have been achieved in recent years, due to factors such as lack of progress in removing barriers within the single market and restrictive fiscal policy. This depressed growth rate has in turn lowered innovation, which then further lowered the growth rate. Maintaining the current EU social model will be costly and such low growth rates cannot support this. Draghi speaks eloquently about the structural reforms and large scale investments needed within Europe to improve the situation.

Europe: Back to Domestic #Growth
Maintaining the current EU social model will be costly & current low growth rates cannot support this. Mario #Draghi addresses the structural reforms and large scale investments needed within #EU to improve the situation.
cepr.org/publications...
#CEPRParis2024

@micheledimaio.bsky.social, H Mueller, & S Spencer Bernard talk economics and conflict #CEPRParis2024. Conflict is the final frontier of development economics. Economics needs more focus on conflict, especially the macroeconomic impacts and how economies adjust to conflict. #EconSky All in all, the field needs more data and case studies to improve its ability to generalise to policymakers. Find out how you can contribute to studying conflict through an economic lens with https://recipe.cepr.org/

@micheledimaio.bsky.social, H Mueller, & S Spencer Bernard talk economics and conflict #CEPRParis2024. Conflict is the final frontier of development economics. Economics needs more focus on conflict, especially the macroeconomic impacts and how economies adjust to conflict...
#EconSky

It was great presenting my paper (joint with maddalena ronchi) on Gender diversity and teams decision making at #CEPRParis2024 @cepr.org

@pisaniferry.bsky.social, @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social end day 5 of #CEPRParis2024. With changes in the transatlantic relationship on the horizon, Europe must take more control of its own defence. Fragmentation in the defence industry makes the road to security complex without further integration. #EconSky Despite the multipolar nature of the world, the EU can play a major role if it can surprise by delivering. Building alliances and further integrating EU markets will allow the EU to become more autonomous from the US. Europe needs to look in many different directions, analyse its linkages, and utilise the potential of its economies of scale.

@pisaniferry.bsky.social @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social end day 5 #CEPRParis2024. With changes in the transatlantic relationship coming, Europe must take control of its own defence. A fragmentated defence industry complicates the road to security w/o integration. #EconSky

Rethinking Pension Reform Population ageing is exerting unprecedented fiscal pressure on social security systems around the world. In response, many governments are implementing or planning pension reforms, often aimed at encouraging later retirement. A long-standing literature in public economics and labour economics investigates how the design of pension systems affects individual labour supply and retirement choices. In recent years, this literature has seen a revival, with a wave of new studies from Europe and the US combining high-quality administrative data, rigorous empirical methods, and conceptual innovations. This body of work has substantially advanced our knowledge of the effectiveness of various policy tools in encouraging later retirement and their welfare implications. This book reviews insights from these new advances in research on retirement policy. Its primary objective is to distill policy lessons that can inform the intense ongoing policy debates and reform efforts in this area. The book begins by demonstrating that most major pension reforms in the last decades fall into a few common categories, and their effects on labour supply can be analysed within a simple framework. The authors then examine recent empirical evidence on the effectiveness of various reform options in impacting retirement behaviour and on social security finances. Beyond fiscal considerations, the book highlights the importance of assessing pension reforms by their ability to provide insurance against old-age poverty and to distribute resources fairly across socioeconomic groups. Moreover, the authors discuss interactions between pension reforms and other social insurance schemes. Drawing on the expertise of a set of leading academics, the book provides fresh perspectives on how to rethink pension reforms.

As people live longer, we also need to make sure that life is healthier, productive, and engaged for longer. #EconSky #CEPRParis2024

📖 cepr.org/publications...

C Landais, D Rouzet, A Scott, and @antoine-bozio.bsky.social on pension reform and longevity #CEPRParis2024. Need to balance 4 aspects: fiscal sustainability, distributional impacts, labour supply, & social acceptability. As people live longer, we also need to make sure that life is healthier, productive, and engaged for longer. #EconSky 📖 https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/rethinking-pension-reform

C Landais, D Rouzet, A Scott, and @antoine-bozio.bsky.social on pension reform and longevity #CEPRParis2024. Need to balance 4 aspects: fiscal sustainability, distributional impacts, labour supply, & social acceptability. #Econsky

@isabelschnabel.bsky.social talks navigating towards neutral monetary policy in her keynote to end day 4 of #CEPRParis2024. She emphasises that monetary policy should proceed gradually and remain data dependent. With Europe on track to hit its 2% inflation target in 2025, and will help to anchor inflation expectations going forward. #EconSky

@isabelschnabel.bsky.social talks navigating towards neutral monetary policy to end day 4 of #CEPRParis2024. With Europe on track to hit its 2% inflation target in 2025, she emphasises that monetary policy should proceed gradually and remain data dependent. #EconSky

Barry Eichengreen, Carmen Reinhart, Bertrand Dumont, Debora Revoltella, and Pablo Hernandez de Cos discuss high public debt #CEPRParis2024. High public debt will not be tackled without political willingness. It will not be easy, especially considering political polarisation and slowing economic growth. When will markets lose patience? #EconSky

B Eichengreen, C Reinhart, B Dumont, D Revoltella, and P Hernandez de Cos discuss high public debt #CEPRParis2024. High public debt will not be tackled without political willingness, and won't be easy with political polarisation and slowing economic growth. When will markets lose patience? #EconSky

Maurice Obstfeld presents his keynote lecture to wrap up day 3 of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium. He discusses how, despite narratives blaming foreign sources for US trade deficits, it is US macro conditions that drive US trade deficits.

Maurice Obstfeld gives a keynote @ #CEPRParis2024. Claims that US deficits in the 2000s had foreign sources persist. However, these theories are inadequate and lead to erroneous policy approaches that would create new problems. US macro conditions play a leading role in US trade deficits. #EconSky

@pgourinchas.bsky.social, Olivier Blanchard, Lucrezia Reichlin, & Thomas Philippon talk reform in #Europe in the final panel of day 3 of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium. Strengthening the single market, mobilising bonds and savings for firms, and completing the banking union are keys to boost #innovation. Chair: @antoniofatas.bsky.social #EconSky #CEPRParis2024

@pgourinchas.bsky.social, Olivier Blanchard, Lucrezia Reichlin, & Thomas Philippon talk reform in #Europe. Strengthening the single market, mobilising bonds and savings for firms, and completing the banking union are keys to boost #innovation. Chair: @antoniofatas.bsky.social #EconSky #CEPRParis2024

Looking forward to presenting tomorrow at the @cepr.org Paris Symposium, with so many great colleagues! #CEPRParis2024

@agnesbq.bsky.social presented on the state of a capital markets union for Europe in her keynote on day 3 of #CEPRParis2024. Some progress has been made, but many challenges remain as EU capital markets are still quite fragmented. Regulation of non-bank financial institutions is a key part of the roadmap going forward. 📉📈 #EconSky

@agnesbq.bsky.social presented on the state of a capital markets union for Europe in her keynote on day 3 of #CEPRParis2024. Some progress has been made, but many challenges remain as EU capital markets are still quite fragmented. #EconSky

Linda S. Goldberg @NewYorkFed, Signe Krogstrup @nationalbanken, Jeromin Zettelmeyer @Bruegel_org discuss financial deglobalization in a panel chaired by CEPR President Beatrice Weder di Mauro. While there is a lot of talk about financial deglobalization, the panel says that there is little evidence of it actually occurring. However, they do see evidence of geoeconomic fragmentation, which impacts central banks and the financial sector.

@jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, Linda S. Goldberg, & Signe Krogstrup on Financial Deglobalization #CEPRParis2024: There is a lot of talk about financial #deglobalization, but little evidence. Trade is still high as a % of global GDP, by and large tariffs are low, and the dollar remains dominant. #EconSky

Cedric Huylebroek, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Roberto Perotti, Adrien Couturier, Nina Boyarchenko speaking at the morning presentations of day 3 CEPR Paris Symposium

📸 Some of our speakers from this morning's session at #CEPRParis2024, hosted by Sciences Po
Cedric Huylebroek, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Roberto Perotti, @adriencouturier.bsky.social, Nina Boyarchenko, speaking about corporate debt, CB swap lines, fiscal consolidations and monetary union
#Econsky

@wederdim.bsky.social, Sylvie Goulard, & Emmanuelle Assouan on #Climate and Nature #Finance @ #CEPRParis2024. It is imperative that economists get involved in the climate field, but we need to match the involvement of academics with respect for the people on the ground. #EconSky 📈📉

David Dorn presents his paper "Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States" in a keynote lecture for the second day of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium.

David Dorn presents at #CEPRParis2024 and shows that the 2018 US import #tariffs led to no #manufacturing #employment growth despite tariff-protected industries significantly expanding sales. The increased sales were caused by higher prices, not employment growth. #EconSky 📈📉

Marc Melitz presented his paper "Opposing Firm-Level Responses to the China Shock" in a keynote lecture for the second day of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium.

Marc Melitz discusses firm responses to the #China shock and shows that the #trade shock confounds two very different shocks: an output competition shock and an input supply shock - with opposite effects on firms in those categories. #CEPRParis2024 #EconSky 📈📉

Chief Economist of the EBRD Beata Javorcik presented her paper on whether sanctions have affected the choice of invoicing currency used to denominate exports to a sanctioned country - in this case, Russia. She found that sanctions have led to fragmentation of invoicing currencies, with a shift away from the USD and towards CNY. This presentation was given on the second day of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium. Today's event was hosted at Banque de France.

Beata Javorcik @ #CEPRParis2024 US dollar dominance boosts sanction effectiveness against Russia - but sanctions may undermine dollar dominance as an invoicing currency.

Maurice Obstfeld, Arancha Gonzalez, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sergei Guriev, and Richard Portes discuss geoeconomic fragmentation and the role of Europe on Day 1 of the 2024 CEPR Paris Symposium. They covered topics such as the EU-MERCOSUR deal, Europe's role in the global tech sector, the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on firms and their behaviour changes, areas of key focus for Europe going forward (China, Middle East, Russia/Ukraine), and the green transition.

@aranchagonzalez.bsky.social, @pgourinchas.bsky.social, Sergei Guriev, & Richard Portes on global economics and the role of Europe: Geoeconomic fragmentation is here, but not deglobalisation. Improving productivity and growth and engaging in deeper integration will be key. #EconSky 📈📉 #CEPRParis2024

📢 Earlier today, the inaugural event of the Research and Policy Network on Artificial Intelligence marked the beginning of what promises to be many highlights from #CEPRParis2024. Organised by Anton Korinek (University of Virginia, Complexity Science Hub) 🗣️Stuart J. Russell (UC Berkeley) 🗣️Philippe Aghion (Collège de France, INSEAD) Hosted by Collège de France #CEPRParis2024 #EconSky 📉📈 ➡️ https://cepr.org/research/research-policy-networks/artificial-intelligence

Earlier today, the inaugural event of the RPN on AI marked the start of what promises to be many highlights from #CEPRParis2024

Organised by Anton Korinek (UVA, Complexity Science Hub)
🗣️Stuart Russell (UC Berkeley)
🗣️Philippe Aghion (Collège de France, INSEAD)

Hosted by Collège de France
#EconSky