AI Deflation Risk: Why Citi’s Warning Matters for Policy On Citi’s trading floor, someone basically wrote: “AI might give us boom‑level productivity and still push us into a deflation scare.” That’s the core of Citi’s AI deflation warning. Not “AI will kill growth.” The opposite: AI could boost output, but if almost all of that gain goes to a “small AI elite,” you can get strong growth coexisting with high unemployment and falling prices…

Citi: AI could boost output but spark deflation and job loss if gains stick to a small elite. It’s not just math — it’s a political‑economy problem. Read why policy must act. #Citi #CitiResearch

Citi Research expects Bitcoin and ether to rebound in 2026 after underperforming this year due to macro and risk-asset headwinds

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Citi puts Continental on positive catalyst watch Investing.com -- Citi Research has opened a 90-day positive catalyst watch on Continental AG (ETR:CONG), citing a supportive second-quarter 2025 update and upcoming strategic milestones, including the planned Aumovio spin-off in September. The brokerage maintained a “buy” rating and a €86 target price, with shares last closing at €75.32, implying a 14.2% upside and a 17.6% total expected return including a 3.4% dividend yield. The pre-close update outlined stable performance across segments. Automotive margins were guided toward the upper end of the 2.5%–4% range, supported by cost efficiencies, favorable pricing, and limited impact from tariffs due to USMCA-compliant imports. Citi said previously signaled third-quarter softness was walked back, reducing near-term earnings risk. Tire margins were forecast toward the lower end of the 12.5%–14% range for the second quarter, with full-year guidance reaffirmed. Headwinds included foreign exchange effects, mid-double-digit raw material costs, and OE volume weakness in Europe and North America. However, positive price/mix trends of around 3.3% were expected to support recovery into the second half. ContiTech posted sequential revenue improvement, though margins remained at the low end of the 6%–7% range. Management noted “gradual signs of improvement,” and the sale process for the OESL unit remains on track for completion in 2025. Citi revised its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of Continental to €84 per share, reflecting an updated ContiTech fair value of about €4.2 billion, up from €3.2 billion, based on improved industrial exposure and long-term EBIT margin potential of 10%. This valuation was averaged with a €88 DCF estimate to retain the €86 target. Group guidance was seen as credible and de-risked. For fiscal 2025, Continental is projected to post €38.9 billion in revenue and €2.8 billion in adjusted EBIT, with a core EPS of €8.61. Segment EBIT margins are modeled at 13.6% for Tires, 6.1% for ContiTech, and 3.6% for Automotive. The company trades at 8.7x 2025 P/E and 7.5x EV/EBIT, levels Citi considers undemanding. The brokerage expects the upcoming Aumovio spin-off and potential updates on the OESL sale to act as catalysts. It also noted that ContiTech sale proceeds, estimated around €4 billion, may be returned to shareholders via special dividends or buybacks in 2026.

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Airbus downgraded to “neutral” by Citi as stronger Euro weighs on valuation Investing.com -- Citi Research downgraded Airbus SE (EPA:AIR) to “neutral” from “buy,” citing a stronger euro as a key factor in lowering the company’s target price. The brokerage reduced its target price for the stock to €183 from €209, reflecting the impact of the euro’s recent appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Airbus has significant exposure to euro/dollar exchange rates due to its cost structure and revenue base. While a large portion of the company’s costs are incurred in euros, its sales are predominantly denominated in U.S. dollars. This imbalance creates a material transaction exposure, according to Citi analysts. Although Airbus hedges its currency risk with a typical three-year horizon, the analysts said the foreign exchange rate remains a fundamental driver of the company’s valuation. “A strong euro vs US$ means that Airbus suffers from higher costs,” the report noted. Citi estimates that every 1 cent weakening in the dollar reduces Airbus’ fair value by €3–€3.5 per share. The previous target price of €209 was based on a euro/dollar rate of 1.05. Citi now uses the current spot rate of 1.14, combined with the three-year forward spread, in line with Airbus’ hedging practices.

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How could Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade impact government bonds? Citi weighs in Investing.com - U.S. officials have limited policy responses should a recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit spark a sell-off in government bonds, according to analysts at Citi. In a note to clients, the analysts argued that "there are few if any" actions available to the Federal Reserve or Treasury Department in the event of a spike in U.S. Treasury yields in the wake of the decision by Moody’s. "The Fed needs a higher unemployment rate before they take action and re-start the easing cycle, and Treasury has limited room to cut issuance sizes," the analysts wrote. On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields eased back somewhat from an initial jump, but remain at elevated levels. Moody’s announced late last week that it had lowered its rating of U.S. credit by one notch to "Aa1" from "Aaa", citing concerns that debt and interest in the country are "significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns". The U.S. currently faces a $36.22 trillion debt pile, according to the Treasury Department. In a statement, Moody’s added that "successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs". While there is room for a move higher in Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to prices, the downgrade "should not have much impact in isolation", the Citi analysts said. The rating cut could reignite fears around foreign demand for U.S. assets, which contributed to a sell-off in April in the wake of President Donald Trump’s announcement of punishing "reciprocal" tariffs, the analysts also flagged. However, recent data pointed to some resilience in foreign demand for Treasuries heading into April, they noted. Foreign demand was also "pretty much unchanged" after a lowering of the rating for U.S. Treasuries in 2023 by Moody’s-peer Fitch, the strategists said.

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Citi Research downgrades Orsted to “sell” on U.S. risks, weaker balance sheet Investing.com -- Citi Research downgraded Danish renewable energy firm Orsted (CSE:ORSTED) A/S to “sell,” citing mounting concerns over the company’s financial position and increasing uncertainty around its U.S. offshore wind projects. Analysts pointed to the cancellation of the Hornsea 4 project in the U.K., which they said was a value-creating initiative, as a key factor that weakens the company’s balance sheet. While some investors have argued that scrapping the project could ease capital expenditures, Citi analysts noted that Hornsea 4 was not factored into Orsted’s DKK130 billion capex guidance for 2025 to 2027. As a result, its cancellation is unlikely to bring any near-term improvement to the company’s financial health. Citi removed roughly DKK60 per share from its valuation following the decision to cancel Hornsea 4, bringing its new 12-month target price down to DKK211 from a previously published DKK300. The cut reflects both the lost value of the project and broader macroeconomic pressures, including higher U.S. interest rates and lower commodity prices. Orsted has relied on selling stakes in legacy assets such as West of Duddon Sands, and may consider offloading interests in projects like Changhua 2b&4 and Hornsea 3 to cover an estimated DKK35 billion funding gap. But with limited visibility into how the company plans to address that shortfall, Citi sees further downside risk to the stock. The brokerage also flagged rising risk in Orsted’s U.S. portfolio, highlighting regulatory uncertainty after the U.S. federal government issued a cease-to-develop order on Equinor’s Empire Wind project. Citi said the decision signals potential vulnerabilities for other projects, including Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, which could face additional capital costs tied to tariff structures and policy shifts under the Inflation Reduction Act. The valuation case for Orsted’s U.S. business has “long been eroded,” analysts wrote, with the focus now turning to how the company can contain further value loss. Despite recent share price declines, Orsted still trades at a premium to book value at 1.1 times, above the 0.7 to 0.8 times seen among renewable energy peers. Citi expects that premium to erode, estimating that a valuation closer to 0.8 times book would imply a share price below DKK200, a nearly 20% decline from current levels. Earnings expectations have also been revised downward. Citi’s forecast for fiscal 2025 earnings per share is now 25% lower, reflecting the impairment tied to Hornsea 4. Projections for 2026 and 2027 have also been cut, as anticipated gains from a 50% stake sale in the cancelled project are no longer expected.

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Citi Research downgrades National Grid to “neutral” after stock rises over 10% Investing.com -- Citi Research downgraded shares of National Grid (LON:NG)to “neutral” from “buy,” citing limited valuation upside following a more than 10% rise in the stock over the past three months. The brokerage said the shares now fairly reflect National Grid’s growth prospects and policy support, with the current valuation leaving little room for further gains. Citi analysts said the stock is trading at a roughly 45% premium on a rolling spot regulated asset base basis and 35% premium to March 2026 RAB, assuming an 18.8x price-to-earnings multiple for its U.S. regulated business. The premium, they noted, is near the top end of recent trading levels. Citi maintained a relative preference for companies offering regulated growth, such as National Grid , particularly in the current macroeconomic environment. But the analysts warned that FX volatility, especially in GBP/USD, could be a headwind moving forward. They also flagged the upcoming regulatory determination expected in late June as a key event that could influence investor sentiment. Citi cut its 12-month target price to 1,050 pence from 1,063 pence, saying the current share price has already priced in the company’s updated earnings outlook and macro factors. The analysts also addressed a surprise leadership change at the utility. National Grid announced that Zoe Yujnovich will take over as CEO in November 2025, replacing John Pettigrew. Yujnovich, who previously held executive roles at Shell and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), has limited experience in regulated network businesses. While the market was surprised by the decision, Citi said some investors view the appointment as an opportunity to reassess National Grid’s transatlantic asset portfolio with a fresh perspective. Following the company’s recent trading update, Citi made minor changes to its financial forecasts. Earnings per share for fiscal 2024/25 were revised slightly upward to 72.9 pence from 72.5 pence. However, projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27 were lowered by about 5% to 8%, largely due to a weaker U.S. dollar and updated assumptions based on the latest regulatory framework and asset sales. The analysts also introduced initial forecasts for fiscal years 2027/28 and 2028/29, and said the company’s new valuation supports their revised target price. Should you invest $1,000 in NG right now? Don't miss out on the next big opportunity! Stay ahead of the curve with ProPicks AI – 6 model portfolios powered by AI stock picks with a stellar performance in 2024. Unlock ProPicks to find out

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Citi shifts view on EM equities: Brazil, Korea upgraded; Mexico, Saudi downgraded Investing.com -- Citi strategists have shifted their outlook on several emerging markets, upgrading Brazil and South Korea to Neutral while downgrading Mexico and Saudi Arabia to Underweight. The changes come amid a volatile macro backdrop marked by ongoing tariff uncertainty and persistent earnings revisions across emerging market (EM) equities. “We upgrade Brazil and Korea to Neutral, both of which are still pricing relatively bearish earnings per share (EPS) outcomes, according to our models,” Citi strategists said in a Friday note. At the same time, the bank cut its rating on Taiwan to Neutral due to weak EPS revisions, and downgraded Mexico and Saudi Arabia to Underweight. The move to upgrade Brazil and Korea follows improvements in earnings momentum and valuation support. For Korea, despite high exposure to global trade risks, Citi noted that the market appears attractively priced, with much of the downside already reflected. In Brazil, Citi sees improving earnings revision trends and relative insulation from tariff-related shocks. Mexico and Saudi Arabia, in contrast, face mounting headwinds. Citi highlighted that Mexico remains “highly exposed to tariffs and U.S. slowdown, with little upside in strategist targets,” while Saudi Arabia faces “expected headwinds from a weaker USD and oil prices.” The broader EM backdrop remains fragile, with Citi maintaining an Underweight stance on the asset class globally. The firm sees about 5% upside in the MSCI EM Index to year-end, targeting 1,170. However, risks are tilted to the downside, particularly given the lingering impact of U.S. tariffs. “We have previously estimated that U.S. tariffs could directly reduce MSCI EM EPS growth by 5-6pp this year,” the report stated. Citi’s allocation model continues to favor select cyclical and defensive plays, maintaining Overweights on India, South Africa, and Chile. Despite a recent rebound in EM equities, Citi remains cautious. “EM equities have recently stabilized with the Trump Administration showing signs of moderation on trade. But the tariff overhang remains in place, and earnings estimates continue to reset lower,” the strategists noted. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

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Citi Research cuts Euronext to “neutral,” citing valuation after volume surge Investing.com -- Citi Research has downgraded its rating on Euronext (EPA:ENX) to "neutral" from "buy," citing limited room for further gains after a period of strong performance and elevated trading volumes. Analysts at Citi said Euronext has benefited from a spike in trading activity in March, fueled by market volatility tied to European Union fiscal stimulus and U.S. tariffs. The resulting increase in volume supported first-quarter revenue and earnings growth. However, Citi said those gains are already reflected in the consensus estimates and current share price. The firm estimates Euronext’s first-quarter 2025 revenue at €445 million, up 11% from a year earlier and in line with Visible Alpha consensus expectations. Its underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, is forecast at €280 million, also in line with consensus. Despite the solid operating trends, analysts said valuation is now the main constraint. Euronext is trading at 18 times Citi’s 2026 earnings estimate, a level that is above its historical average range of 12 to 21 times and only modestly below Deutsche Boerse (ETR:DB1Gn) and U.S. exchange peers. “We hence believe the volume/revenue benefit from recent volatility is already factored into consensus estimates,” Citi said. Following strong recent outperformance, Euronext no longer screens as cheap on a relative or historical basis, Citi added. Citi also updated its full-year EBITDA forecasts. It now sees 2025 EBITDA at €1.087 billion, up from a previous estimate of 1.07 billion, and 2026 EBITDA at €1.15 billion, up slightly from 1.14 billion. The changes reflect higher trading activity but do not alter the firm’s overall view of Euronext’s longer-term growth outlook. Citi reduced its target price to €140 from €134.

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Citi Research voorspelt hogere goudprijs tot 3500 dollar per ounce Key Takeaways Citi Research heeft zijn prognose voor de goudprijs voor de komende drie maanden herzien en verhoogd van 3.200 dollar naar 3.500 dollar per ounce. Deze aanpassing is het resultaat van verschillende factoren die de goudmarkt beïnvloeden. Verhoogde goudaankopen door Chinese verzekeringsmaatschappijen spelen een belangrijke rol, samen met beleggers die op zoek zijn naar […]

Citi Research voorspelt hogere goudprijs tot 3500 dollar per ounce #Goudprijs #Investeren #CitiResearch #Financiën #Aandelenmarkt

Citi Research prévoit une augmentation du prix de l’or jusqu’à 3500 dollars l’once Principaux renseignements Citi Research a révisé sa projection du prix de l’or pour les trois prochains mois, la faisant passer de 3200 à 3500 dollars l’once. Cet ajustement est le résultat de plusieurs facteurs influençant le marché de l’or. L’augmentation des achats d’or par les compagnies d’assurance chinoises joue un rôle important, de même que […]

Citi Research prévoit une augmentation du prix de l’or jusqu’à 3500 dollars l’once #Or #PrixDeLOr #CitiResearch #MarchéDeLOr #Investissement

Citi Research upgrades Symrise to “buy” on low valuation and resilient outlook Investing.com -- Citi Research in a note dated Monday has upgraded Symrise AG (ETR:SY1G) to a “buy” rating, pointing to its historically low valuation and resilient business model amid a challenging global backdrop. The upgrade follows a broader review of the European chemicals sector, where Citi sees value in adding defensive exposure. Symrise is trading near its lowest EV/EBITDA multiple in a decade. Despite recent challenges, including profit warnings and softness in segments like pet nutrition, Citi finds no fundamental impairment to the company’s model. The current valuation also reflects a significant discount to peer Givaudan, with the gap now around 40 percent above the long-term average. The company’s limited exposure to discretionary categories such as fine fragrances (approximately 6% of sales) and cosmetic ingredients (around 8%) positions it well in an environment of consumer caution. In contrast, more stable segments like pet nutrition, which make up roughly 18% of sales, are expected to hold up as consumers continue to prioritize spending in that area. Symrise also stands out for its deep backward integration into raw materials, covering about one-third of its needs through internal processing and direct sourcing from local producers. This integrated model helps buffer the company from raw material price volatility and trade disruptions. Citi sees this as a competitive advantage, particularly if tariffs lead to cost inflation across the sector. Citi raised its target price on the stock to €120 from €110 per share. The revision reflects not only the company’s fundamentals but also expectations of lower corporate tax rates in Germany. The updated valuation implies a 16x EV/EBITDA and 28x adjusted P/E for 2025, excluding purchase price amortization. Citi forecasts organic growth of 5.1% for the year and expects the EBITDA margin to remain at approximately 21%. Despite current uncertainties, including potential tariff-related cost increases, Citi expects Symrise to maintain positive volume growth and resilient profitability. The prospect of lower interest rates, particularly in Europe, may also support valuation, with Citi’s analysis suggesting that rate cuts could more than offset the impact of modest earnings reductions.

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Citi slashes China growth outlook for 2025 amid U.S. trade tensions Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Citi downgrades Enel to “neutral,” Endesa to “sell” on valuation concerns Investing.com -- Citi Research has downgraded two major European utilities, Enel (BIT:ENEI) SpA and Endesa (BME:ELE) SA, citing limited upside in the current market environment.Enel has been cut to “neutral,” while Endesa is now rated “sell.” The downgrade on Enel follows a recent rally that brought shares to Citi’s 12-month price target of €7.4. Analysts say the stock now fairly reflects expectations for normalized power prices and retail margins over the next three years. While Enel’s relatively low valuation versus peers and its net long retail position provide some earnings stability in the short term, Citi warns that falling commodity prices will likely reduce inframarginal profits and intensify retail competition, putting pressure on margins. The brokerage still sees Enel as a solid operator but no longer sees a compelling valuation case at current levels. Citi’s downgrade of Endesa to “sell” indicates more profound worries. They believe the recent stock price surge, fueled by the €500 million buyback, possible network and non-mainland generation investments, and defensive macro trends, has already accounted for all growth prospects. Consequently, Citi sees a downside risk to their existing €20.3 price target, as the market is not adequately considering the potential for earnings to normalize downwards. Citi expects Endesa’s earnings — currently bolstered by elevated commodity prices and retail margins — to come under pressure as market conditions return to pre-war norms. The company’s integrated EBITDA is currently running around 50% above pre-Ukraine war levels. Citi believes this is unsustainable and sees additional pressure from a potential global recession and trade-related tensions, which could accelerate the decline in commodity prices. As prices fall, retail churn — already above 20% — is expected to trigger more price-focused competition, squeezing margins further. While the share buyback and increased investments in networks and non-mainland assets are positive steps, Citi says they are not sufficient to offset broader earnings risks. Even with a forecasted 12% EPS uplift for FY25–27, helped by acquisitions and lower share count from the buyback, analysts remain unconvinced the company can meet its FY27 EBITDA targets.

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Citi downgrades Swedbank to “neutral,” cites NII pressure and market share loss Investing.com -- Swedbank AB (ST:SWEDa) has been downgraded to "neutral" by analysts at Citi Research, following concerns that the bank’s recent positive performance, particularly in terms of net interest income (NII), could face headwinds in the near future. The downgrade reflects the expectation that Swedbank’s NII will come under pressure due to the unwinding of timing differences that had previously benefited the bank’s earnings. Citi analysts point out that Swedbank has been one of the few beneficiaries of timing differences in recent quarters, which helped deliver beats in NII by 4% in the third quarter of 2024 and 6% in the fourth quarter of the same year. However, this positive momentum is expected to reverse, with Citi forecasting a 4% miss on NII for the first quarter of 2025, leading to a 6% shortfall on pre-provision operating profit. This revision is one of the key factors influencing the downgrade and the opening of a negative 90-day Catalyst Watch on Swedbank shares. The analysts also flag other concerns, such as the loss of market share in Sweden, which adds uncertainty to the bank’s earnings outlook for the first half of 2025. While Swedbank may benefit from tailwinds like loan growth in the Baltic region and potential capital return after the conclusion of an ongoing U.S. investigation, these factors are not enough to offset the immediate challenges posed by timing differences and domestic market pressures. This change in outlook is a shift from the more optimistic view Swedbank had enjoyed earlier, as the market’s previous assumptions did not fully account for the upcoming challenges. Analysts at Citi now caution investors about the bank’s short-term earnings prospects, especially as they expect NII to remain under pressure in the near term.

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Citi Research'ten yeni altın tamini Citi Research, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump yönetimindeki ticaret savaşları ve jeopolitik risklerin yanı sıra güçlü merkez bankası alımlarını gerekçe göstererek yakın vadeli ve 2025 ortalama altın fiyatı tahminlerini yükseltti. ALTIN İÇİN HEDEF FİYATLAR…

World News Press News Haber EshaHaber Citi Research'ten yeni altın tamini: Citi Research, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump yönetimindeki ticaret savaşları ve jeopolitik risklerin yanı sıra güçlü merkez bankası alımlarını gerekçe… #Altın #CitiResearch #DonaldTrump #TicaretSavaşları #JeopolitikRiskler