It sounds like a catastrophe. Citrini's piece had a 3.4-to-1 ratio of negative/crisis words to positive ones, with 198 subjective/ emotional words. It was designed to elicit an emotional response. And it did. I take two issues with their essay - Citrini assumes no adaptation and that everything happens everywhere all at once. As investor Gavin Baker observed, the scarcity of watts and wafers will significantly slow the scenario. He
Citrini, of course, is not all wrong. The first flywheel has kicked off - cheap, fast software is already undercutting mid-market SaaS. But this focuses on the wrong part of the story. This month, someone on our team replaced a $40/month Saas product in a couple of hours by building something that actually worked how they work. In this case, it's not a job loss but a capability gain. We need to look at the gains and the pinch points of the transition. The collateral damage of railroads cannot be ignored, but nor can the fact that they didn't just kill the canal companies; they also created an entirely new geography of economic possibility. In creative destruction, markets always show what is destroyed first. And the markets are selling the canal phase of an Al transition that, like railroads, will destroy visible incumbents while building new economic possibilities. But that destruction will be slowed by the compute crunch, which buys time for adaptation that Citrini doesn't consider.
🔮 Exponential View #563: The Citrini craze; human cognition; Anthropic’s moral machine; COBOL returns; bye‑bye tax filing and Moon mining++ www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-563 #AI #CitriniReport
