BCA downgrades Egypt to neutral in EM bond portfolios on inflation risks
Investing.com - BCA has downgraded Egypt from overweight to neutral in emerging market domestic bond portfolios due to resurgent inflation risks, despite the Central Bank of Egypt maintaining its policy rate.
The Central Bank of Egypt recently kept its policy rate unchanged at 24.5%, citing easing inflationary pressures in the country. However, BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists believe the period of disinflation is coming to an end.
Very strong credit growth and robust fiscal expenditure have driven private consumption higher in Egypt, while large trade and current account deficits are creating additional inflationary pressure, according to BCA.
The firm notes that capital inflows to Egypt are dwindling and foreign reserves remain limited, which is expected to cause the Egyptian pound to weaken soon, further amplifying inflation risks in the economy.
BCA recently recommended that investors book profits on long 3-year local currency bonds, as the Egyptian central bank will likely be forced to raise rates in the coming months to combat these renewed inflation pressures.
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