Attended the GCMCA meeting tonight in League City.
Our Galveston County cities accomplished a lot this year, but the State must step up to meet community needs.
We need action on:
💧 Drainage
🐢 Slow-moving grants
🚫 Unfunded mandates
#txlege #HD24 #GalvestonCounty #LeagueCity
I’m putting it in writing. ✍️
Talk is cheap in election season. That’s why I went on the record with the Association of Texas Professional Educators (ATPE).
I’ve laid out my positions clearly. No dodging. No spin.
See where I stand: www.teachthevote.org/Candidates/F...
#TxLege #HD24 #TeachTheVote
The champagne is chilling, but the 2025 fundraising deadline is looming 🍾
Lets wake up Jan 1 Jan 1st with a number that shows we care about Teachers and our Public Schools. 🍎
🌊 Let's ring in the new year with a message secure.actblue.com/donate/fncar...
#txlege #HD24 #TexasDemocrats
Recap of tonight's specials. Dems overperform by double digits in two races.
Connecticut:
#SD21: R+7/Trump+1
#HD40: D+38/Harris+22
Maine:
#HD24: D+44/Harris+25
In 10 races this year, Dems on average are performing 9 pts better than the 2024 prez results.
Our complete Big Board:
Pulling together results from all four towns in Maine's #HD24 (site of another special tonight), the Dem is up 72-28, a margin of 44 pts. This district we estimate went Harris +25, so that would be a 19-point overperformance if these numbers are final.
Final results out of Maine's #HD24 special election:
Sean Faircloth (D)- 72.3%
Carolyn Fish (R)- 27.7%
Don't have 2024 numbers here, but Biden carried this district by 25 in 2020, so a near-20 point overperformance from 2020.
We have three special state legislative elections today in Maine & Connecticut. Two of them (Maine's #HD24 & Connecticut's #HD40) should be easy Democratic holds.
The final one, Connecticut's #SD21, backed Trump by 0.5% after backing Biden by 4%. Definitely a flip opportunity.
Overall, we estimate that Harris won #HD24 61-36, but given the issues described above, this calculation comes with sizable (and unknowable) error bars. No other state in the nation is like this! And unless Maine towns change how they provide results, this problem is insoluble.
Bangor, for instance, is split between 4 House districts, including #HD24. But our only choice is to assume that each portion of each district in Bangor voted the same as the city as a whole (59-39 Harris). There's little chance that's the case, but there are literally no other options.
#HD24 includes all of one town (Veazie) and parts of 3 others: Bangor, Brewer & Orono. But none of the split towns provide precinct results.
In fact, Bangor—the 3rd-largest city in the state—only *has* one precinct! Same for Brewer. Orono has 3 precincts but doesn't break down results by precinct.
There are specials in CT & ME tonight, but we gotta talk about the serious data issues in *Maine* that cramp our understanding of the lay of the land in #HD24 (shown below via @davesredist.bsky.social).
The problem: Many towns do not report results *except* at the town level.
The North Carolina Democrats officially broke the North Carolina GOP's legislative supermajority thanks to flipping #HD24.
This Wilson County district flipped blue by two points, despite Trump narrowly carrying it on the Presidential level.
