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Russia keeps key rate on hold, braces for global turbulence By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski MOSCOW (Reuters) -The Russian central bank maintained its key interest rate at 21% on Friday, with inflation starting to decline but new risks facing the Russian economy because of global economic turbulence triggered by U.S. trade tariffs. Russia has not suffered directly from high import taxes on many countries announced by U.S. President Donald Trump but is now bracing for a protracted period of lower oil prices - its main export - and declining budget revenues. "A further decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and oil prices in case of escalating trade tensions may have proinflationary effects through the rouble exchange rate dynamics," the central bank said in a statement. Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, who had earlier called the trade wars "a tectonic shift", said the changes happening in the global economy were now a key inflationary factor. "The main channel of influence of these tariff wars on the Russian economy is a decrease in prices for the main goods of our exports," Nabiullina said. Lower oil prices mean less foreign currency revenue for Russian oil exporters, which they convert into roubles at home to pay taxes. It will reduce the supply of foreign currency and make the rouble weaker, pushing up domestic prices. INFLATION PASSED PEAK The central bank is keeping the key rate at the highest level since the early 2000s as it struggles to combat inflation. The rouble, which has surged by 37% against the dollar this year, has helped this effort by making imported goods cheaper. "Current inflationary pressures, including underlying ones, continue to decline, although remaining high," the regulator said. It maintained its 2025 inflation forecast at 7.0–8.0%, predicting inflation will return to the target of 4.0% in 2026. Nabiullina said inflation had passed its peak in the fourth quarter of 2024 but the transition to a sustainable decline in annual inflation is expected to occur in May, with a spike in July linked to a planned rise in utilities tariffs. She also said that the rouble strengthening is now seen as more sustainable than before, but its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar was still under the influence of news about Russia-U.S. talks on a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Ukraine. The central bank also left some room for further rate hikes, saying it expected an average key rate in the range of 19.5–21.5% in 2025, compared with the previous estimate of 19-22%. Nabiullina welcomed the Finance Ministry’s idea to save more oil revenues in a reserve fund and create a safety cushion during a period of global turbulence, saying such a policy would also help bring inflation rates down. PREDICTABLE CONDITIONS The central bank drew strong criticism from business leaders over its interest rate policy in recent months but Nabiullina, who has the backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is expected to keep her job until the end of her term in 2027. The decision to keep the rate on hold was in line with the results of a Reuters poll of 25 analysts. "This decision means that the central bank is creating predictable conditions within the economy in order to reduce the uncertainty currently associated with trade wars and instability in oil prices," said Alfa Bank’s Natalya Orlova. The central bank noted that economic activity slowed in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. It said the share of enterprises experiencing labour shortages was also declining. The central bank maintained the 2025 growth forecast at 1-2%, below the government’s forecast of 2.5%. It said that it would hold its next rate-setting meeting on June 6.

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TSX higher after BoC maintains key rate Investing.com – Canada’s main stock indexes enjoyed gains on Thursday, after a day of tech sector selloffs, U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, and the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the key rate. As of 1:00 ET, the S&P/TSX 60 Futures was up 10.8 points or 0.75%, having inched upward by 0.05% in the previous session. The S&P/TSX Composite index also rose slightly by 170.1 points or 0.7%, after a modest gain of 39 points or 0.2% on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on Wednesday its decision to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.75%, aligning with consensus expectations. This decision comes after a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, the most recent being a 25 basis point reduction in March from 3.00% to the current rate. In response to the announcement, CIBC (TSX:CM) Economics’ Avery Shenfeld commented, "We see this as a pause, one tied to the Bank’s lack of clarity on the outlook ahead, rather than the end of the easing cycle, unless the tariff threat disappears in short order." In Thursday’s news, Trump criticized the Fed’s Powell for his cautious stance on monetary policy. Trump referred to Powell as "Too Late" in his post, stating that "Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!" The President has been an advocate for the U.S. Central Bank cutting rates, sharing his belief that the Fed should have already lowered rates earlier in the year. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future, citing the inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties introduced by the new tariffs. U.S. stocks mixed U.S. Stock indexes were mixed after opening Thursday, as the tech sector looked to bounce back from a tough Wednesday session, and investors digested Trump’s escalating criticism of Powell. At 1:00 ET, the S&P 500 was up 44.1 points or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 44 points, or 0.25%. Conversely, The Dow Jones Industrial fell 255.4 points or 0.6% in afternoon trading. In Wednesday’s trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 700 points or 1.7%, the S&P 500 declined 121 points or 2.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite plummeted 516 points or 3.1%. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) led the losses on Wednesday, after the semiconductor giant declared it would be hit by $5.5 billion in charges following a Commerce Department decision to limit exports of its H20 AI chip to its key Chinese market. The stock fell 6.9% on the day, pricing in at $104.49 per share. U.S. President Donald Trump declared "big progress" in negotiations with Japan in Washington late Wednesday. Japan was the first major trading partner to negotiate directly with the United States, earning the administration’s praise. Trump is slated to meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to negotiate tariffs. Crude continues gains Oil prices rose on Thursday, following gains in the prior session. The slight rebound for the commodity comes amidst a previous selloff, due to investor panic on the likely effect of the trade uncertainty on global growth. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday joined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in cutting its forecast for global oil demand this year, citing Trump’s tariffs on trading partners and their retaliatory moves. By 1:00 ET, Crude Oil WTI Futures was up 3.6% to $64.73 per barrel, while Brent Oil Futures gained 3.2% to $67.97 a barrel. Gold falls after hitting record high Gold prices were falling slightly on Thursday, having touched a fresh record high, benefiting from sustained safe haven demand as markets eyed U.S.-China trade tensions. Spot gold advanced to an all-time peak of $3,357.84 per ounce. Gold futures also hit a record high of $3,371.89/oz. As of 1:10 ET, XAU/USD was trading down 0.7% to $3,318.57, and Gold Futures were down 0.4% to $3,331.29. (Scott Kanowsky also contributed to this article)

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Namibia Holds Key Policy Rate at 6.75% - TradingView Namibia Holds Key Policy Rate at 6.75%  TradingView

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Romania central bank holds key rate at 6.50% amid fiscal uncertainty About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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Nabiullina on rates, rouble and foreign interest in Russian assets (Adds new quotes marked with asterisk) MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank, as expected, kept its key interest rate on hold at 21%. Nabiullina and Zabotkin spoke in Russian. The quotes below were translated into English by Reuters. *NABIULLINA ON IMPACT OF ROUBLE APPRECIATION ON BUDGET For the exchange rate to have a significant impact on something, it must be a stable trend. So far it is premature to talk about this in the exchange rate. As for the impact on the budget, we need to look at the cumulative effects on both revenues and expenditures. In fact, rouble appreciation, all other things being equal, is a disinflationary factor. If the rouble strengthens steadily, it may mean a softening of monetary policy and a reduction in interest expenses for the budget. Therefore, I think we should analyse different channels of influence for the budget. *NABIULLINA ON RISKS OF INCREASING DEMAND FOR GOVERNMENT BONDS So far, we do not see such risks. If there is such interest, it is not expressed on a large scale. We do not see any risks to financial stability in the growing demand for government bonds. Because we see that this demand in the primary market and in secondary exchange trading is being made by a wide range of participants. These include banks and institutional private investors. The interest is driven not only by geopolitical expectations, but also by the first signs of slowing inflation. NABIULLINA ON NON-RESIDENTS’ INTEREST IN RUSSIAN ASSETS We do not have reliable data that we could rely on to show the manifestation of this interest. Although this topic is being discussed quite widely. And, of course, there are objective reasons for such interest - differential rates, difference in yields when investing in Russian assets. But, of course, the realisation of this interest is hindered by restrictions on capital movement and sanctions. We will monitor this situation. NABIULLINA ON ROUBLE VOLATILITY The exchange rate affects inflation expectations. But inflation expectations do not automatically follow the exchange rate. We see that exchange rate volatility, unfortunately, now, due to sanctions restrictions, is higher than in 2022. And, of course, this is not a factor that would contribute to the reduction of inflation expectations. But what I want to emphasise is that the lower the inflation, the more stable the exchange rate. Therefore, if and when we achieve sustainable low inflation, it will also work to stabilise the exchange rate. NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION A key rate cut was not discussed by the bank today. It will be possible to start cutting the rate only after we are sure that inflation is falling steadily and at a rate that will allow us to bring inflation back to 4% in 2026. NABIULLINA ON FURTHER STEPS We see a reduction in the current inflationary pressure, but it is under the influence of both sustainable and some one-off factors. We will have to make sure that inflation is steadily declining. If the pro-inflationary risks that we note are realised, we may need to raise the rate. Let me remind you that our average key rate range for 2025 is 19-22%.

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