Useful paper.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Citation
"linguistic plausibility can mimic judgment without undergoing evaluation."
That is the definition of "Narrative Fallacy"
www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/embr...
#AI
#LLM
#judgement
#epistemic
#narrativefallacy
New blog about the #narrativefallacy: our tendency to make simple, coherent stories to explain complex/random events, believing we understand them better so, often omitting seemingly unrelated facts, stressing causes, ignoring luck.
philosophybytheway.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-...
#Taleb #Kahneman
Bio-chemical models of psychiatric conditions, e.g. a chemical imbalance story of depression is not an explanation, it's an example of narrative fallacy.
www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/embr...
#explanation
#scientific
#method
#prediction
#narrativefallacy
📣 New Podcast! "The Lie We Wanted to Believe: Jack the Ripper's 'Lost' Diary" on @Spreaker #cognitivebiases #coldcase #forensics #forensicscience #forgery #forgerydetection #handwritinganalysis #historicalhoax #historypodcast #jacktheripper #jamesmaybrick #mindhunter #narrativefallacy
The Battle of Gettysburg is often told as the Union’s brilliant stand. While true, it also depended on Lee’s strategic overreach and underestimation of Union resolve. Turns out, overconfidence on one side makes the other look like geniuses. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
What person who excelled in school threatens people who would release their grades? #Narrativefallacy
The Korean War’s early phase is framed as U.N. forces heroically holding back communism. The reality? Underestimation of Chinese intervention and overextension caused massive setbacks. Nothing heroic about running headfirst into the obvious. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The fall of France in 1940 is often attributed to German blitzkrieg genius. The narrative ignores French logistical failures and leadership disunity that opened the door. Turns out, “genius” doesn’t require much when the other side does all the work for you. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Battle of Midway is often told as a story of brilliant U.S. strategy and codebreaking. While true, it ignores how luck—a delayed Japanese scout plane—played a decisive role. The narrative fallacy makes us forget: war is as much chaos as it is planning. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
After Pearl Harbor, the narrative focused on American unpreparedness. But the truth is more complex: intelligence was scattered, priorities misaligned, and inter-service rivalries rampant. As usual, bureaucracy won the day—for the other side. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Siege of Vicksburg is remembered as a Union masterpiece. The narrative overlooks Confederate disorganization and the sheer grind of siege warfare. Victory looks much easier when the other side is in chaos. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
Custer’s defeat at Little Bighorn is remembered as overwhelming Native American strength. The narrative overlooks Custer’s reckless arrogance and refusal to wait for reinforcements. Sometimes, losing is just a masterclass in hubris. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion is often pinned on poor execution by Cuban exiles. In truth, it was the result of U.S. overconfidence and poor planning. If arrogance was a strategy, the Cold War would’ve been over in a week. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Cuban Missile Crisis is often seen as Kennedy outmaneuvering Khrushchev in a game of brinkmanship. The reality? Miscommunication, luck, and backchannel diplomacy played bigger roles than strategy. But hey, a good story sells better. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Battle of Hastings is told as a tale of Norman superiority. But weather delays, Harold’s rushed march south, and poor positioning all played pivotal roles. Sometimes, victory is just surviving the other side’s bad decisions. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
At Gallipoli, the narrative blames the failed campaign on poor planning. True, but it also overlooks the Allies’ underestimation of Turkish resilience and logistical challenges. Turns out, charging headlong into disaster is rarely a good plan. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
After World War I, the ‘stab in the back’ myth blamed Germany’s loss on betrayal by its own people. This narrative fallacy fueled dangerous nationalism, ignoring systemic failures on the battlefield and beyond. Nothing like a good scapegoat to rewrite history. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Battle of Britain is framed as heroic RAF pilots beating the Luftwaffe. While true, it also relied heavily on radar, civilian resolve, and German miscalculations. Victory has many fathers, but the best ones rarely make it into the story. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Vietnam War is often summarized as the U.S. losing due to domestic protests and guerrilla tactics. The narrative fallacy overlooks deeper issues: unclear objectives, poor intelligence, and underestimating cultural dynamics. But sure, blame the protesters. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Battle of Stalingrad is often framed as Soviet resilience triumphing over Nazi aggression. While true, the freezing logistics and Hitler’s blind insistence on holding the city played a bigger role. Sometimes, you win because your enemy refuses to quit losing. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
Waterloo is remembered as Wellington’s tactical genius defeating Napoleon’s overreach. But luck, weather, and the late arrival of Prussian reinforcements played enormous roles. Apparently, even a “genius” needs good timing and better friends. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Charge of the Light Brigade lives on as a story of heroic bravery in the face of impossible odds. The narrative forgets the catastrophic miscommunication and poor leadership that led to the charge. Turns out, dying bravely isn’t the same as fighting smart. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Russian retreat in 1812 is seen as Napoleon’s strategic blunder. But the narrative ignores the brutal reality of Russian scorched earth tactics and logistical nightmares. Never underestimate the power of winter to ruin a good story. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
The Spanish Armada’s defeat is often attributed to English naval genius. In truth, weather played a decisive role, and Spanish logistical mismanagement sealed their fate. Apparently, even nature has a sense of humor. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
fall of Constantinople in 1453 is attributed to Ottoman innovation and might. true, but internal disunity + lack of external support for Byzantium played just as big a role. Sometimes, losing is less about the other guy and more about your own house falling apart. #MilitaryHistory #NarrativeFallacy
