Correct!
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Correct!
Both opening and closing.
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Correct.
The shock was in the same direction as the Rini baseline signal.
OMXS30 surpassed the Rini absolute max but fell below before the closing (no opening price prediction).
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Observation leads to the conclusion that the current US administration is sensitive to rapid increases in the 10Y yield (and/or the stock market).
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TACO
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Correct risk assessment.
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US 10Y yield at ~4.42
08:06:09 23 Mar 2026
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We now have a decent negative reaction from US market participants.
Add the US 10Y yield at 4.39 to that.
Reading statements from Potus - always reacts to the above.
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Finished at 2864.69 (-1.52%) which is sufficiently below the Rini absolute min AND very closed to the intraday min.
Very risky, though, to carry a position over the weekend in this situation.
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Almost 4.39 now.
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Opened a position yesterday before closing and harvested the profit after opening because we do not know how the rest of the day will be.
#LVMH
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These 2 conditions almost always correctly predict the opening sign the day after. i.e. index sufficiently below (above) the Rini absolute min (max) AND index finishing close to intraday min (high).
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with 1 model statistically significant at 1% - the other 2 produce a positive opening price but lack statistical significance).
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Yesterday OMXS30 fell sufficiently below the Rini absolute min and finished close to the intraday min.
Thus, qualifies for a positive opening price (supported by the opening Rini
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BUT the longer it lasts, the higher the impact on prices initially through energy (inflation), and then potentially recession - again because of the energy shock.
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react more to good news than bad news, i.e. are "thirsty" for a recovery.
Last night Israel stated that the war will not last as long as we think --> + shock.
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of constant shocks you should because you can infer the market's direction from market participants' reaction to every little piece of news.
We can tell you that market participants
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Difference this year is we are not mentally exhausted because experience kicks in.
In general, you do not have to keep you eyes on the stock market the whole day but during such days
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Recovery today, e.g. gold spot from ~4500 intraday min yesterday to ~4700 now.
Spot silver from ~65 intraday min yesterday to ~75 now.
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Same bullish-alert signal repeats for LVMH tomorrow.
RSI at ~25.
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Carnage in both precious metals, e.g. gold, silver, and base metals, e.g. copper.
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And please notice that it is the *unanticipated* shocks that hit the Rini returns - we can handle the anticipated ones.
We cannot predict such shocks as it is.
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Same situation as 1 year ago:
A series of unanticipated shocks that renders the Rini signals false.
Last year we lost the 80% prediction success with the tariffs, this year is Iran.
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There was a series of negative shocks throughout the trading day.
The setting has changed - we are running the code as we post.
OMXS30 RSI is ~31.
Only .90% return in 2026!
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Unfortunately, negative shock just before opening:
European gas prices rise 30% after Qatar's export LNG damage.
Riksbanken paused as expected.
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Bull alerts (in the absence of a negative shock):
LVMH any threshold (repeats for 3rd day).
Bitcoin 70,900 intraday.
Silver 75.3 intraday.
ASTS, JD, Dow Jones none.
Gold 4820.
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Wrong!
Two negative shocks (see posts below).
Tomorrow, 19.03.26, the Rini signal seems to repeat in the absence of further negative shocks (same setting), bullish day.
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Of course, the price of oil jumped.
Brent at ~108
14:41:10 18 Mar 2026
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Double negative shock:
1. Israel hit Iranian energy fields.
2. US PPI came in higher than expected.
Fed rate decision later today.
Riksbank rate decision tomorrow morning.
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Wednesday 18.03.26.
Bullish day.
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