Latest HRRR shows a tight circulation Clipper type systems moving in Mon. aft./eve, colder air aloft/steep lapse rate & strong diurnal heating, will kick up snow/rain showers, these convective showers in an unstable atmosphere may also generate graupel in the mix #onwx #onstorm

...and speaking of snow melting on impact...latest run of the GFS SFC Soil temp (C) 10cm depth (or 4") From Mon, thru to April 16 (10 days out) for SONT. Some Verifications stats on accuracy;12 hrs.~95–96%, 3 days~85–95%, 10 days out ~65–80% #onwx #onstorm

Latest SONT Radar loop, 6 hrs. history, till 9:15 PM EDT-light off lake snow flurries, very minor accumulations, most melting on contact. #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:None at post
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:None at post
#onwx #onstorm

Get the winter gear back out. Just when you thought spring had sprung in Ontario, winter makes a comeback. A bit of a shock to the system after Friday's mid-20 warmth. #ONstorm #ONwx www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weat...

Season rewind in southern Ontario as snow, chilly temperatures return - The Weather Network Don't put away the winter gear, yet. Southern Ontario is facing an abrupt return to winter weather with plunging temperatures, incoming snow and strong wind gusts--impacting early-week commutes

Don't put away the winter gear, yet. Southern Ontario is facing an abrupt return to winter weather with plunging temperatures, incoming snow and strong wind gusts--impacting early-week commutes. #ONstorm #ONwx www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weat...

...and speaking of rainfall/snowfall the next 10 days the ensembles are on the same page with that. #onwx #onstorm

How the EURO thinks next week will play out for Ontario weather-wise. (Mon-Frid) Unsettled/cooler for the first part of the week-things moderate, but another series of Lows are poised to moved & bring unsettled weather. #onwx #onstorm all this cloud/rain hits hard on daily temps.

...listening to my sump pump all morning got me to here👇...the last 24 hrs. of Radar estimated rainfall-general overview of total rainfall (in.'s) -If I zoom at various locations, I see greater detail of higher local max. It verified for me with my rain gauge. #onwx #onstorm

Another ~12.4mm since yesterday morning 8am (S. Sauga). My Sump pump fires up every ~14 mins. Been listening to it all morning🙄 #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other
WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/HRMOH
#onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other
WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/fG0wk
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/nBA9h
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/U0NK3
#onwx #onstorm

I also pulled out the lightning trigger that I left a fresh Alkaline 9V in only to discover it was dead during the storms last Tuesday. So here I am with some rechargeable 9V batts and no lightning but "stormy wx" approaching. The odds were never good for 🌩️ today. #ONwx #ONstorm

You know, if it wasn't 7 degrees outside, and this was a little taller, it would actually probably technically be a LP supercell... not bad for a walk with the dog.

#ONwx #ONstorm

Latest hourly run of the HRRR-Radar 4cast- ~now till 1AM Sun. -added the "rain trail" left behind the showers/storms *HRRR solution only-Scale on top, in inches, wide-spread 1/2 in (or ~12mm) or greater, some spots 1.5-2.0+in. (if I zoom in) 1"rain=~25mm. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other
WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/kZock
#onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other
WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/8K7y1
#onwx #onstorm

Latest SONT Radar, 6 hrs. history, till 8:10AM EDT (add MUCAPE -the light blue bobs- CAPE scale at top) Showers and some embedded storms in deep SWONT moving ENE -overall motion. #onwx #onstorm

Current radar loop, Radar + GOES19 Airmass imagery. That Colorado Low is starting to get better organized, many severe weather warning are on going in the US rn. should be entering SWONT by Sat. early AM with showers, more active weather will "fill in" for Sat. #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/GAYYX
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario-includes
info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A
precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day &
other maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:
shorturl.at/1YHMe
#onwx #onstorm

Some latest model output regarding the rainfall potential for SONT till 8AM Sun. There will be some thunderstorms in the mix & at the cold front, higher local amounts in storms. You can see the average tracks of the “rain makers” via the “rain trails” SW-NE tracks. #onwx #onstorm

Afternoon runs of the models show similar pattern of development/direction & amounts of precipitation-Snow/FRZN Rain/IP up north (NONT/NEONT) and heavier showers & scattered storms for the south. Once thru, colder air floods in -changing the showers to flurries #onwx #onstorm

Early NBM Thunder Guidance for the weekend, it only goes out 36hrs, new NBM, once approved, will go out further. Next system will bring the risk if thunderstorms to SONT. Again, I find the deep blue/greens verify well for SONT-just a general observation. #onwx #onstorm

Early NBM Thunder Guidance for the weekend, it only goes out 36hrs, new NBM, once approved, will go out further. Next system will bring the risk if thunderstorms to SONT. Again, I find the deep blue/greens verify well for SONT-just a general observation. #onwx #onstorm

Next system on deck-approaches ON later tonight, similar track, similar weather. Behind this, temps drop as cooler air floods, and looks like another weak Clipper drops in mid-week,-I'm starting to hate that "Clipper term"-after a long, hard, winter full of them😒 #onwx #onstorm

Some early numbers of Precip. totals from the ensembles, thru the weekend thru Mon. 8AM.
Canadian Ens. is the wettest of the lot. These are "mean" numbers, so in the multiple runs sims per model there will be higher/lower values with various individual members. #onwx #onstorm