Phytophthora ramorum is an invasive generalist plant pathogen introduced to North America and Europe in the
mid-1990s and is now established in forests and the nursery industry. It causes sudden oak death in the western
US and sudden larch death in Western Europe, leading to extensive forest decline and mortality. While well
studied in California and Oregon, no quantitative assessment exists for its potential economic impact on European
forestry. We assessed the potential direct economic impact of P. ramorum on larch and beech in Europe
under a “no-control” scenario. Climatically optimal areas for disease expression were derived using the CLIMEX
niche model with refined parameter values, updated climate data, and P. ramorum occurrence records from
symptomatic forest trees. These areas were overlaid with host distribution data to identify assets at risk. We then
applied a radial range expansion model and a partial budgeting method to quantify annualized average damage
costs. Our results indicate that 10 % of the study area is climatically optimal for disease expression. Within that
area, 4 223 km² of larch and 2 577 km² of beech are at risk. Under worst-case spread and mortality assumptions,
annual direct damage costs could exceed €117 million for larch and €130 million for beech. Countries such as the
UK, Italy, Austria, and Germany face the highest risks, while potential impacts in Southern Europe are negligible.
This study provides an updated risk assessment of the current post-invasion state of P. ramorum in Europe,
facilitating informed decision-making and the development of appropriate management strategies.
Work of Stelios Kartakis on the framework of @purpest-eu.bsky.social project:
"Modeling disease expression of #Phytophthora ramorum to estimate potential #EconomicImpacts in #EuropeanForests"
doi.org/10.1016/j.fo...
#ForestPathogen
#PlantBiosecurity
#InvasivePlantPathogen
#Oomycete
