This was such a blast! Thank you @dannyjarabek.bsky.social & @therollingtape.bsky.social for having me on the podcast for the first time!
We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!
*FULLY UPDATED* #OscarsModel following results from LAFCA, HCA, and Golden Globe nominations- there's LOTS to catch up on!
As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
Big next 26 hours!
We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀
We are SO proud to present our
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
I feel like a lot of folks here could benefit from thinking the way our #OscarsModel does about precursors:
In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom
Huge batch of data as the #OscarsModel prepares for its LIVE launch this week- many of these winners today find themselves atop the odds in their categories thanks to it!
NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!
While not currently included in the #OscarsModel, there’s still lots to learn from the Gotham winners! A great kick off to the season with an excellent slate of winners.
Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵
Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations?
We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.
HCAs give us our season’s full slate of above-the-line nominees! The categories most predictive of Oscar nominations in the #OscarsModel are Animated Feature (almost 80%!), Lead Actor, and both Screenplay categories (~70%). Important gets for Challengers, The Substance, & more that needed it!
While only overlapping with the Oscars 18% of the time for nominees in total, Camerimage can be an early sign of strength for a dark horse contender, and “The Girl with the Needle” fits the bill! It goes into the #OscarsModel, and it’s one to keep your eye on.
The #OscarsModel remembers LA LLORONA...
Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.
With the announcement of Oscar-eligible Documentary Features, the #OscarsModel undergoes a slight shift.
None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.
An updated look at Best Documentary Feature according to the #OscarsModel, following IDA mostly. Model still favoring non-English docs; Dahomey and No Other Land tied at the top!
Diane Warren's song from The Six Triple Eight makes a large jump in the #OscarsModel for Best Original Song after winning the main category at HMMAs last night. Emilia Perez's two songs stay strong, followed by other HMMA winners The Wild Robot and The Goat Life cracking top 5.
Updated #OscarsModel results in Best Original Score, after HMMA awards last night! With the win, Emilia Perez moves into top position, with other winner The Wild Robot joining the top 5. The Room Next Door and Dune: Part Two each make a small jump.
Strong showings for The Six Triple Eight (Warren), Emilia Perez, and The Wild Robot give them a boost in the #OscarsModel in Score and Song!
The main Song category aligns w/ Oscar winners 36% since the first in 2015, and Sci-fi/Fantasy tracks even better than main Feature in Score (only 30%).
Another relatively strong data point in the #OscarsModel for Doc Feature! Nominees here align 37% with the Oscars since 2011- only crossed over 1 nominee last year. Winning IDA is a big boost in our Model, but it’s very possible to win the Oscar without an IDA nom- 6 have done it since 2011.
First time sharing here!
It's time for the official 🌟2025 #OscarsModel Preview!🌟 Read below about all the ways Mitchell and I have been working to improve the Model for the year ahead. Get excited! 🏆✏️
t.co/Qq4HbttZ9u
The CEH noms are a moderately good precursor in our #OscarsModel for Doc Feature- this group (which nominated 3 Oscar nominees last year) aligns with the Oscars about 45% since 2011 in their main category.
Last Oscar winner to not appear there or in the Audience award was Icarus, in 2017!
Doc is where the early-ness turns into oddities- the #OscarsModel for now seems to boost non-English films because of their eligibility for International precursors (haven’t happened), compared to English ones that aren’t. The Model’s looking for *anything* to set things apart. (3/3)
Score and Song are a mirror on the HMMA nominations, and everyone hovering around 20% in an #OscarsModel calibrated to 5 eventual nominees basically means absolutely nothing. A shrug! 🤷🏼♂️ (2/3)
First #OscarsModel results of the new season!
These are *extremely preliminary,* and shared out of resounding interest and desire for transparency/accountability throughout the process.
Here’s early looks at Score, Song, and Documentary. (1/3)
Hesitantly here, so I’ll re-introduce myself!
Last year my brother and I ran an inaugural season of our #OscarsModel, which- to our knowledge- was the single most accurate model out there for predicting both the Oscar noms AND wins!
Follow along for the stats behind the Oscars! 🏆
t.co/HX9YafwIL5
