Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Trump cancels trade talks with Canada * Trump cancels trade talks with Canada * Carney says he has not spoken with Trump today * US May PCE core +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected * Canada GDP for April -0.1% vs +0.0% expected * US June final UMich consumer sentiment 60.7 vs 60.5 expected * Trump: I've ended sanctions relief for Iran because the Ayatollah didn't say thank-you * Trump: In the process of making trade deals * US oil drilling rigs fall for the ninth straight week * Bessent: I'm not sure why the US dollar moves would bother me * Fed's Kashkari: I continue to expect two rate cuts in 2025 * US Bessent: I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day * US Bessent: Confident that magnets will flow in China-US deal Markets: * US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 4.27% * WTI crude oil down 17-cens to $65.07 * Gold down $54 to $3273 * S&P 500 closes up 0.5% to record * EUR leads, CAD lags The day started with the PCE data and it painted a tough picture for policymakers as core inflation ran hot but spending cooled in something of a stagflationary impulse. That led to some early US dollar selling and the euro hit a fresh three-year high at 1.1750. That move didn't last long as selling pulled it back to 1.1715 at the European close. I suspect there might have been some flow-driven USD buying ahead of quarter end as it was a broader move. The next big market move came late in the day when Trump said he was cutting off trade negotiations with Canada in a sign that Tariff Man is back. That led to a 70-pip rise in USD/CAD and we saw the US dollar rise broadly as risk assets came under pressure. The S&P 500 gave up a 40 point gain in the aftermath. But the TACO trade kicked in late with the market concluding it's all a negotiating tactic and the S&P 500 closing up 32 points. USD/CAD gave back nearly all the gain as well and the dollar is doing the same on some other fronts. Trump's issue with Canada is the long-planned digital services tax that will go into effect on Monday. That short timeline could lead to weekend risks and a potential short turnaround on a deal. Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Futures higher, PCE data ahead, Nike reports - what’s moving markets Investing.com - U.S. stock futures rise, with investors looking ahead to fresh inflation data and eyeing possibly easing geopolitical and trade tensions. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price gains is due out during the session, as policymakers remain wary of the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on the broader economy. Meanwhile, Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares spike in extended hours trading after the athletic apparel retailer unveils an upbeat forecast and outlines plans to shift some production out of China and into the United States. 1. Futures climb U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Friday, suggesting a positive end to a week that has featured growing optimism among investors thanks to a resilient Israel-Iran ceasefire and tentative signs of cooling trade tensions. By 03:33 ET (07:33 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 149 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had gained 20 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had risen by 87 points, or 0.4%. The main averages on Wall Street advanced in the prior session, buoyed by an ongoing truce between Israel and Iran which began earlier this week and has soothed concerns that the conflict would spill out across the Middle East. Sentiment received an additional boost when a White House official said the U.S. had forged an agreement with China over how to expedite the shipment of rare earths materials that are crucial to a range of industries. Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested that President Donald Trump could extend his 90-day reciprocal tariff pause beyond a self-imposed deadline early next month. Reports that Trump was playing with the idea of possibly naming a replacement to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in September or October, potentially with someone more dovish on borrowing costs, also heightened expectations there will be a "shadow" central bank chair during the final months of Powell’s tenure. The already-beleaguered U.S. dollar received a further knock, falling to a near 3-1/2-year low and heading towards its largest weekly loss in more than a month. "There have been two favorable macro developments in recent days, including the dovish pivot in the Fed narrative and the reduction in geopolitical risk," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note. 2. PCE ahead On the economic calendar, the May reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index is set to be front and center. Economists anticipate that the measure, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, sped up slightly to 2.3% year-on-year and matched April’s pace on a monthly basis. The core metric, stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, is seen accelerating marginally at an annualized rate and equalling April’s month-over-month pace of 0.1%. The trajectory of inflation remains one of the major question marks facing Fed policymakers as they decide on the path ahead for interest rates. The central bank has recently adopted a wait-and-see attitude to future policy changes, arguing that they are still waiting to see how Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda is impacting price gains. So far, there has been little evidence that the duties have driven inflationary pressures upward, but analysts have noted that the Fed is likely waiting to see incoming data for June, July and August before feeling more confident that this benign trend will hold. Still, some signs of headwinds could be emerging in the labor market, which, along with inflation, is a key focus for the Fed. Data this week showed that the number of Americans receiving jobless benefits rose to its highest since November 2021 in the week ended on June 14, possibly indicating that more people are staying unemployed for longer. That said, first-time claims and the four-week moving average both slipped. 3. Nike’s production plans Nike has laid out plans to move more of its production operations out of China and to the United States, as the sportswear group looks to avoid higher possible costs from sweeping U.S. tariffs. Speaking to analysts in a call after Nike posted better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter returns, executives flagged that Trump’s levies threaten to add roughly $1 billion to the company’s expenses. At the moment, around 16% of its shoes imported to the U.S. are derived from China, one of the major targets of Trump’s tariffs, CFO Matthew Friend noted. Friend outlined plans to slash that number to a "high single-digit percentage range" by the end of May 2026. Nike’s quarterly sales dipped 12% to $11.10 billion, but still came in above estimates due partially to the firm’s key running business finding its footing after heavy competition weighed on the unit for a string of quarters. For its first quarter, Nike sees revenue sliding in the mid-single digits, but this was rosier than analysts’ estimates for a 7.3% decline. Shares in Nike surged in extended hours trading. 4. Big bank stress test results due The Fed is due to release the results from its annual big bank stress tests on Friday. Analysts have predicted that the lenders are likely to pass their health check and display ample capital that can be deployed in a number of ways. Employed by the Fed to determine how much cash banks need to have on hand in order to withstand a severe economic decline, this year’s stress tests are predicted to be less strenuous than prior iterations. "[The stress tests] should give the ’green light’ to banks to deploy more capital for loans, deals, and buybacks. Many managements said that their view of excess capital should become more clear post-test," analysts at Wells Fargo said in a note to clients. Introduced in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the exercise has become a major part of capital planning for the 22 banks facing the tests, and a key to determining the amount of dividends that should be handed out to shareholders. 5. Oil inches up Crude prices edged higher, but are on track for their steepest weekly falls for over two years as the Israel-Iran ceasefire saw traders remove a hefty risk premium from the market. At 03:32 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.7% to $67.14 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.7% to $65.69 per barrel. Both benchmarks are on course for weekly losses of around 12%, heading for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, and are now back at the levels they were at before the conflict between Israel and Iran began. Small gains in prices later in the week resulted from U.S. government data showing crude oil and fuel inventories fell a week earlier, pointing to resilient demand in the world’s largest economy.

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Futures higher, PCE data ahead, Nike reports - what’s moving markets NKE Dow futuresS&P 500 futuresNasdaq 100 futures hereremove ads hereremove ads hereremove ads hereremove ads Brent crude oil Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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New trade ruling, China talks, PCE data - what’s moving markets Investing.com - U.S. stock futures slipped slightly Friday as the rump administration’s trade tariffs were reinstated, but trade talks with China appear to have hit an impasse. Investors await the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, while the oil cartel OPEC+ meets over the weekend to discuss future output levels. 1. Trump tariffs back in place Another day, another tariff surprise. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled on Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority with his tariff agenda, and had given the president 10 days to reverse course. Trump appealed the decision almost immediately, and the appeals court responded late Thursday, leaving his tariff agenda in place as it considers his appeal. That is by no means a foreshadowing of its eventual ruling, and the next hearing on the case is scheduled for June 5, but it just adds to the general uncertainty, further pushing out decisions on hiring, spending or cutting rates. Trump railed against the trade court ruling, while lauding the court of appeals for staying the initial ruling, and his team has already indicated that they are looking at other means of keeping the tariffs in effect. Trump outlined steep tariffs against major U.S. trading partners in April, with particular focus on countries with large trade surpluses with the United States, before announcing a 90-day extension on most of these tariffs shortly after. His strategy was to use these steep tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners while negotiating trade deals. 2. U.S.-China trade talks stall The U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world, came to an agreement a couple of weeks ago to rein in hefty tariffs for 90 days, to provide room for trade negotiations. However, a more permanent accord is proving harder to come by, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating late Thursday that trade talks with Beijing had stalled, and a personal intervention from President Trump may be needed. "I believe we may at some point have a call between the president and party Chair Xi," Bessent said. "Given the magnitude of the talks, given the complexity ... this is going to require both leaders to weigh in with each other," he said. "They have a good relationship, and I am confident that the Chinese will come to the table when President Trump makes his preferences known." The U.S.-China agreement prompted a massive relief rally in global stocks, but it did nothing to address the underlying reasons for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly longstanding U.S. complaints about China’s state-dominated, export-driven economic model. 3. U.S. futures slip at end of positive month U.S. stock futures slipped lower Friday following the latest trade uncertainty, ahead of the release of a key inflation reading. At 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 50 points, or 0.1%, lower Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 11 points, or 0.2%, and Dow futures fell 50 points, or 0.2%. The decision of the appeal court to allow President Trump’s tariffs to remain in place until next week is the latest dose of uncertainty for investors to contend with as the month comes to an end. Yet Wall Street is set to post strong gains in May, with the broad-based S&P 500 adding more than 6% this month, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surging 10% in that time, and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining around 4%. The data slate centers around the April PCE inflation release [see below], while the likes of clothing retailer Gap (NYSE:GAP), cosmetics company Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) and tech giant Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) will be in focus after they released results after the close on Thursday. 4. PCE data looms large Away from trade turmoil, investors will also be studying the release of the latest PCE price index data - the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - for more insight into inflation in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. central bank’s likely monetary policy response. The core PCE price index for April, a measure which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis, up from the previous flat figure. This would result in an annual rise of 2.5%, a touch below the 2.6% gain seen the prior month. However, there could be some volatility attached to this release given the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies, and how importers reacted to the on-off imposition of tariffs. The Fed earlier this month kept short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.5% range where they’ve been since December, with policymakers choosing stability as they evaluate the economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies. 5. Crude awaits OPEC+ meeting Oil prices drifted higher Friday, but were on course for a weekly loss as traders await confirmation of another OPEC+ output hike amid heightened uncertainty over President Trump’s trade tariffs. At 03:35 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.2% to $63.50 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.3% to $61.15 a barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for losses of around 1.5% this week, potentially a second consecutive losing week as uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and their economic impact weighed on the outlook for demand. Oil prices have lost more than 10% since Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, is set to meet on Saturday, with the members expected to authorize another bumper production increase for July after agreeing 411,000 barrels-per-day hikes at the previous two meetings. (Reuters contributed reporting.)

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Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set for weaker start after PCE data. Gold hits new record. Lululemon slumps. CoreWeave set to trade. - MarketWatch Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set for weaker start after PCE data. Gold hits new record. Lululemon slumps. CoreWeave set to trade.  MarketWatch

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PCE data ahead, Carney on tariffs, gold hits record high - what’s moving markets Investing.com - U.S. stock futures edge lower on Friday, as markets prepared for the release of key inflation data and digested the fallout from new tariff threats from President Donald Trump. The personal consumption expenditures price index could offer a look into U.S. price pressures, with worries recently rising that Trump’s tariffs could refuel inflationary pressures. Elsewhere, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says no response to the levies is off the table, adding that Canada’s long, mutually-beneficial economic relationship with the U.S. is over. 1. Futures lower U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Friday, with investors gauging the impact of President Trump’s tariff plans and looking ahead to fresh inflation data. By 04:28 ET (08:28 GMT), the Dow futures contract had inched down by 113 points or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had dipped by 21 points or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen by 113 points or 0.6%. The main indices on Wall Street closed lower in the prior session, although they pared back some earlier losses that were sparked by Trump’s announcement on Wednesday afternoon of new 25% automotive tariffs. Trump said the levies on imported cars and light trucks into the U.S. would take effect on April 3, while further duties on auto parts would kick in on May 3. The pronouncement came ahead of the potential unveiling next week of separate reciprocal tariffs. “[I]nvestors still [...] have faith that the ultimate trade agenda (once it’s all said and done) won’t be as grim as it seems now,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients. 2. PCE ahead On the economic calendar, markets will likely be keeping tabs on the release of an inflation metric closely-monitored by Federal Reserve officials. The headline personal consumption expenditures price index for February is tipped to match the prior month on both a year-on-year and monthly basis. Meanwhile, the so-called “core” measure is seen accelerating slightly on an annualized basis and equaling January’s pace month-on-month. The numbers come as fears are growing that Trump’s aggressive trade agenda, which includes levies on both friends and adversaries alike, could refuel inflationary pressures and weigh on broader economic activity. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its latest meeting earlier this month due to uncertainty around Trump policy moves, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the wider economy remained a “strong” position. 3. Carney on Canadian response to Trump auto tariff threat Canada will wait until next week before rolling out a response to Trump’s latest tariff threats and no action is yet off the table, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney. The new automotive sector levies crucially did not include any carve-outs for Canada or Mexico, two countries which play integral roles in the construction of vehicles in North America and had previously signed a trade agreement with Trump during his first term in the White House. Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, Carney pledged to "fight the U.S. tariffs with retaliatory trade actions that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impacts here in Canada." However, he added that longstanding economic and trade ties between Canada and the U.S. have come to an end, flagging that tough times may lie ahead for Canadians. Canada’s economy relies heavily on exports to the U.S., leaving it particularly exposed to an escalating trade war with its neighbor. 4. Gold hits record high Gold prices hit a record high in Asian trade on Friday, extending recent gains, as Trump’s move to announce steep tariffs on the automobile sector heightened safe-haven demand. Investors were also gearing up for the PCE price index reading later in the day. The yellow metal was sitting on bumper gains through March, having been boosted by deteriorating risk appetite as markets fretted over Trump’s levies and the threat of a U.S. recession. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a breakdown in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire has also helped fuel the flight to relative safety of bullion. Spot gold traded up 0.5% at $3,073.52 an ounce by 04:19 ET and gold futures expiring in May jumped 0.7% to $3,112.74/oz. 5. Oil prices on track for weekly gains Oil prices eased on Friday, but were still heading for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks in part to a tightening global supply outlook. At 04:21 ET, Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to $72.99 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.4% to $69.62 per barrel. Both benchmarks hit a three-week high on Tuesday, and traded over 2% higher for the week, driven by U.S. threats of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, along with declining U.S. crude inventories. The crude contracts are up more than 7% since hitting multi-month lows in early March.

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