Labour market tightness and recent inflation: learning the right lessons - Econ Brief The inflation of 2021-23 has reignited debate among economists about the impact of labour market tightness on inflationary pressures – a connection long known as the Phillips curve. New research warns...

The inflation of 2021-23 has reignited debate about the impact of labour market tightness on inflationary pressures, @ucleconomics.bsky.social research warns that assuming a nonlinear #PhillipsCurve relationship could lead to major policy mis-steps, #EconBrief

ucleconbrief.co.uk/2026/01/26/l...

Rethinking inflation: why we need to focus on the job ladder - Econ Brief The Phillips curve underpinning monetary policy doesn’t capture the full complexity of the links between labour markets and inflation. The concept of the job ladder and the dynamics of job-to-job swit...

The #PhillipsCurve doesn’t fully capture the complex links between labour markets & inflation; the #JobLadder & dynamics of job-to-job switching offer a richer understanding of how economic shocks translate into wage & price pressures

@ucleconomics.bsky.social

ucleconbrief.co.uk/2026/02/06/r...

The hybrid Phillips curve and inflation in post-Soviet Central Asia and the South Caucasus Using the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve, this paper provides the first multi-country estimation for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekis...

🚨 New Publication in Post-Communist Economies (SSCI-Q2)
📋 Title: The hybrid Phillips curve and inflation in post-Soviet Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/1463...

- Backward-looking: 0.55
- Forward-looking: 0.45
- Pass-through ≈ 0.87

#Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #PhillipsCurve

The devolution of federal reserve monetary policy strategy, 2012–24 The Federal Open Market Committee's 2012 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy interprets the Federal Reserve's dual mandate in light of the natural rate hypothesis and the New K....

"The devolution of federal reserve monetary policy strategy, 2012–24," by Peter N. Ireland of @bostoncollege.bsky.social.
#FederalReserve #DualMandate #PhillipsCurve
⬇️OPEN ACCESS⬇️

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Based on the shape of the #PhillipsCurve and the planned German Govt spending on infrastructure, @isabelschnabel.bsky.social rules out further interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the current interest rate is “neutral”, chart #ECB www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

The inflationary episode from 2021 to 2023 reignited the debate on the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve. Aggregate and city-level data indicate a non-linear relationship, with inflation accelerating rapidly when the vacancy-unemployment ratio exceeds one. This column argues that the evidence for a non-linear Phillips curve is fragile and depends on the model specification and data choices. It shows that the nonlinearity disappears in most specifications once accounting for inflation expectations. Differentiating between the drivers of inflation is crucial, and a misinterpretation of the slope of the Phillips curve could lead to significant policy missteps.

The evidence for a non-linear #Phillipscurve is fragile and depends on the model specifications and data choices. Nonlinearity disappears in most specifications once accounting for #inflation expectations.
Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, @fpj-portier.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

IWH #Research Seminar in #Economics w/ Isabel Gödl-Hanisch (lmumuenchen.bsky.social)

"Wage Setting in Times of High and Low Inflation"

📅 Tuesday, March 25, 2:15 pm CET

➡ Please register here get your Zoom link: bit.ly/42dBfXj

#wagesetting #newkeynesianmodel #heterogeneousfirms #phillipscurve

Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

Documentos de Trabajo: "Strike while the iron is hot: optimal #monetarypolicy with a nonlinear #Phillipscurve" www.bde.es/wbe/es/publi...

Thread on (formerly) persistently low #inflation in #Japan, the fallacy of the #PhillipsCurve, and exogenous #wages:

The "labour market" is pure theoretical figment: There's no generalised barter of #labour. Particularly, it does not determine money wages.
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Maybe the real question isn't if the #phillipscurve will return. Maybe it's whether any central bank can work against all the others. #Fed

reuters.com

. @Reuters questions the #phillipscurve: Janet Yellen: An orthodox economist for unorthodox times http://reut.rs/1J8qeVj

Should we be bracing for "significant" upside inflation risk, asks @IanShepherdson ? The #PhillipsCurve is staging a comeback...