CIBC’s Tal warns Canada is repeating population forecasting mistakes
Investing.com -- Canada is reportedly underestimating its future population growth due to flawed data assumptions, raising concerns about a repeat of past planning errors that fueled today’s housing crisis. A new report from Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC (TSX:CM) Capital Markets, warns that such misjudgments could further strain housing supply and infrastructure planning.
“Simply put, the projections and immigration targets submitted to Parliament are unrealistic given historical trends,” Tal writes. He argues the country’s official projections fail to reflect the actual number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) who remain in Canada past their visa expiry.
Recent data shows population growth has cooled from record highs in 2023, but still remains robust. Canada added 744,324 people over the past year, a 1.8% increase, driven almost entirely by international migration.
Statistics Canada currently forecasts population growth of just 0.3% in 2025 and a contraction in 2026, assumptions Tal calls “too low.” The federal agency overcounts outflows of temporary residents by equating expired visas with physical departures, which “does not translate into comparable population declines.”
Many with expired student or work visas continue to live and work in Canada, either awaiting status renewals or transitioning into permanent residency. Visitor visa (TRV) extensions have surged, yet these individuals are not included in the population count.
The underestimation becomes more pronounced with rising asylum claims and humanitarian permits, both of which are difficult to govern amid global instability. Tal estimates that with more realistic adjustments, population growth could reach 1.1% in 2025 and 1% in 2026—more than three times the official forecast.
“If we add TRV visa extensions back into the population base, growth could reach 2.3% in 2025,” the report adds. Such discrepancies directly impact economic statistics, housing demand, and public services planning.
“Governments and developers do not build for populations that are not projected,” Tal warns. Without more accurate data, Canada risks building too little, too late—a costly mistake it can’t afford to repeat.
