Michelle Shaw @ 7pm Shared with Public group Speculating On The "MOU" Coming This Week This is purely speculation, but I've seen a lot of online voices asking "why would Carney do this?", mostly because it so clearly will piss off BC. They're not wrong, but I think they may be missing the larger game here. Assuming Carney has more or less the same information we do - which basically shows that there is no compelling business case for a pipeline, and that any of the likely commercial interests that might have at one time been interested simply are not - then the question is "why?". The "why" is likely multi-faceted. At the very least, Carney has to suspect that there is very little chance that a "shovel ready" project is going to emerge on this front any time soon - if ever. Short of Smith forming a pipeline company as a crown corporation, I don't see any takers on the horizon, and even then there's a couple of years' work to get a proposal put together (even if she manages to re-use the Northern Gateway work from Enbridge). So, at that point, an "MOU" with Alberta is a low-ish political risk where Carney doesn't have to do much of anything until an actual project proposal hits the ground - and that places a whole bunch of work firmly in Alberta's court and keeps Smith (relatively) quiet while that process unfolds. The few bits we've heard about the structure of the MOU, it's basically a bunch of "If / when Alberta does X, the Federal Government will do Y". If that is the case, Alberta will have a very hard time speed-running things, especially when it comes to gathering consent from stakeholders such as the affected indigenous communities. Carney's bet here is that the process itself will tie Smith up long enough that he can do other things. As far as BC goes, I suspect there's some back channel conversations between Carney's team and Eby's people. Eby is going to play up the fight with Alberta simply because that's good politics for him. Do I believe …
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