The Iran war is exposing another major resource vulnerability in the Middle East: water.
Drinking water is a scarce commodity, and attacks on desalination plants threaten to open a new front.
#TopRisks2026 #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
Trump could have built a more durable tariff architecture from day one, but instead he chose the fastest path to maximum power and headline impact.
@ianbremmer.com breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and how that plays into our #TopRisks2026:
@gzeromedia.com
As the fighting in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the greatest danger this year lies elsewhere.
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
A look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
This year’s @munsecconf.bsky.social report states that “the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.”
In line with our #TopRisks2026: “The United States is itself unwinding its own global order.”
#MSC2026
Refresher on Risk #8 from #TopRisks2026: AI eats its users:
“In 2026, growing pressure for many US AI labs to demonstrate a path to profitability will accelerate the
shift to extractive and socially dysfunctional business models.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/opinion/opena...
“The world’s most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution."
@ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.”
#TopRisks2026
The United States remains the most investable major economy in the world, even if that edge is narrowing.
The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative).
#TopRisks2026
Geopolitics are becoming more anarchic and competitive—that’s the G-Zero world we’ve been warning about for over a decade.
But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up.
#TopRisks2026
The US-China relationship is headed for at least a year of relative stability, for three reinforcing reasons.
Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️
www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2...
Outside of the US, no other country will be as profoundly affected by our #1 risk, US political revolution, as Canada.
From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️
www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Im...
Our #TopRisks2026 report includes 4 Red Herrings.
Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t.
www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2...
Our #TopRisks2026 will have a modest impact on Brazil, with some risks even benefitting the country in the near term.
Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.
Japan entered 2026 under economic pressure from inflation, a weak yen, and a growing debt burden.
Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.
Almost all our #TopRisks2026 hit Europe at its weakest points, contributing to the perfect storm that has been brewing in the G-Zero era.
From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:
Half of humanity already lives under water stress, and there’s no architecture to manage it.
As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026
Why lock into an agreement when the current approach keeps delivering for the American president and neither Canada nor Mexico can afford to walk away?
Trump holds the cards and he knows it.
Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:
In 2026, growing pressure for AI companies to demonstrate profitability will accelerate the shift to extractive and socially disruptive business models.
The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.
#TopRisks2026
China’s deflationary spiral will deepen in 2026.
Beijing will try to export its way out, flooding global markets—a fundamentally beggar-thy-neighbor approach that most trading partners may absorb this year but won’t tolerate forever.
#TopRisks2026
In 2025, we warned that President Trump would amplify crony capitalism in the world’s largest economy.
What emerged is the most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal. In 2026, this will expand and entrench further.
#TopRisks2026
As water becomes increasingly scarce, it will become a dangerous weapon in some of the world’s most heated rivalries.
Read more about the water weapon via @circleofblue.bsky.social:
#TopRisks2026
“Under Trump, the US status as the world’s largest petrostate is growing,” says our expert Cliff Kupchan.
“In my view, it’s a bad bet.”
#TopRisks2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/us/politics/t...
In addition to our global #TopRisks2026 report, we published addendums for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan.
Curious how these risks play out in different parts of the world?
Download here: www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/country-specif...
#8 for #TopRisks2026: AI eats its users
Our expert Nick Reiners explains how in order to save democracy, there will need to be reforms that ensure AI technology benefits society, not just stakeholders.
*in italiano*
Putin sees hybrid war as the best way to wear down Europe.
His goal is to erode European support for Ukraine before economic strain impairs his ability to prosecute the hot war.
Here’s a look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
Required reading if you want to get ahead of the major geopolitical risks of 2026 ⤵️
#TopRisks2026
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026
The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has been a decade in the making.
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom enter 2026 with weak, unpopular governments under siege from the right, left, and an American administration that’s openly rooting for their collapse.
#TopRisks2026
Instead of just limiting China, Russia, and Iran in the Western Hemisphere, Trump is also looking to assert American primacy through military pressure, economic coercion, selective alliance-building, and personal score-settling.
The Donroe Doctrine in action ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
“Geopolitics moves in cycles, but they’re long cycles,” says @ianbremmer.
“These are tectonic shifts. They aren’t short-term equity movements.”
#TopRisks2026
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/08/us-e...
Washington is asking the world to buy 20th-century energy while Beijing offers 21st-century infrastructure.
In 2026, we’ll start to see who was right.
Overpowered ranks #2 on our #TopRisks2026
Our top risk for 2026: US political revolution
@ianbremmer.com expects that the political revolution will eventually fail, not succeed – but the damage it does will be permanent.
#TopRisks2026
