2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: We expect to see convergence between #FX and #yield #differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the #US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the #dollar. #USD
A chart showing a close relationship between the euro/dollar exchange rate and 1-year yield differentials from mid 2021 until the beginning of the trade war in early 2025 when the two rates diverge significantly.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: Since the #tradewar began, the dollar has traded weaker than #interest-rate differentials would have predicted. 🧵
Graph indicating that about 20% of tax revenue in the US goes to debt service.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: For every five dollars the US #government receives in #tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the #nationaldebt.
4 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: To avoid being overexposed to just one factor, #asset allocation should deliberately increase exposure to sectors, regions and strategies whose fundamentals are less directly tied to #AI.
3 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: And AI currently makes up 60% of investments in #venturecapital.
The bottom line is that there is one factor driving returns in #portfolios, namely #AI.
🧵
2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: With #hyperscalers issuing more #debt, #AI is increasingly also driving returns in #bondmarkets 🧵
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: #AI is driving returns in #equitymarkets because of the growing size of #tech in the #S&P500 index, and this is a problem for both #institutional and #individual #investors 🧵
A chart showing an extraordinary rise in objects launched into space in recent years, from 600 in 2018 to 4.5K in 2025.
#TorstenSlok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management: more than 4,500 #objects were launched into #space in 2025, up from 600 in 2019.
Chart showing the rise of margin debt to record levels in recent years.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, ApolloGlobal
Management: With #margin #debt at record highs, any #downturn in #stocks risks turning into a sharper #correction as #leveragedinvestors are forced to sell into falling #markets
A chart based on data from the Dallas Fed indicating more people are leaving the US than entering.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: Dallas Fed data show net #unauthorized #immigration flows turning negative, meaning more individuals are leaving the #US than entering
#usecon
2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: As these firms scale, they will create #jobs, underscoring that #AI is likely to strengthen, not disrupt, the #US #labormarket.
#usecon
A chart showing weekly business formation has risen sharply in the past few years.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: The surge in new #US #businessformation is being fueled by #AI and #largelanguagemodels that are dramatically reducing the cost and complexity of launching a #company. 🧵
Chart illustrating the net foreign inflows into various US assets.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: #Foreign #demand for #USassets remains very strong
Chart showing a sustained albeit choppy rise in equity market trading volumes since 2019.
Dr. #TorstenSlok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, The average daily #US #equitymarket turnover now exceeds $1 trillion, driven by higher #retail participation, more #high-frequencytrading and recent #tech-sector #volatility
A table from economist Torsten Slok showing other factors that affect industrial groups sensitive to AI.
2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: … a meaningful slowdown in #immigration-driven #labor supply.
The bottom line is that a large share of the #AI-sensitive #sectors of the #economy is also #rate, #trade or #immigration-sensitive.
Chart by Torsten Slok indicating fluctuations in employment in industries affected by AI since 1990 with patterns that suggest other factors may be contributing to it.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: #employment #declines in #AI-exposed #industries since 2022 are being overattributed to #ChatGPT. Since late 2022, those same industries have also been hit by 3 major overlapping shocks: #Fed tightening, trade-war #uncertainty and … “🧵
3 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: … more fragile and more vulnerable to an abrupt, outsized move.
#markets #stocks
2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: At the same time, options activity remains extremely elevated, consistent with heavy retail speculation and leverage-like exposure. Larger idiosyncratic moves and outsized options participation leave the market structure … 🧵
Chart showing the 1-month implied correlation index is S&P 500 stocks is declining.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: share of #S&P500 names moving more than 10% in a single day has increased, and high dispersion and low implied correlation suggest #stocks are increasingly trading on their own fundamentals. 🧵
2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: After three years with #ChatGPT and still no signs of #AI in the incoming #data, it looks like AI will likely be #laborenhancing in some sectors rather than #laborreplacing in all sectors. #GenerativeAI
A table indicating the total factor productivity gains expected from generative AI by various economists.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: from a macro perspective, the #valuecreation is not the product, but how #generativeAI is used and implemented in different sectors in the #economy. The academic literature is still inconclusive about the potential macro effects of #AI 🧵
Graph showing the bottom 40% of US households by income suffer a higher inflation rate than the rest.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: Fed data show #lower-income #households are experiencing higher #inflation b/c their consumer #spending baskets place greater weight on categories like rent, electricity, food, transportation & other necessities whose prices have risen faster
Chart showing that the cyclically adjusted Shiller PE ratios is near its all-time reached around 1999.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: #Stocks are extremely #overvalued; Shiller Cyclically Adjusted #PE #ratio near all-time highs
#markets #equities #MarketSky
Chart showing the high and increasing shares of overall S&P 500 earnings and market cap held by the 10 largest companies in the index.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist Apollo Global Management: “The bottom line is that #investors in the #S&P500 remain overexposed to #AI.”
#markets #stocks #MarketSky #EconSky
#TorstenSlok, chief #Economist at #ApolloGlobalManagement, reports that the wealth gap between top and bottom earners hasn’t been this extreme in 30 years.
A chart indicating the assets under management by gold ETFs globally has surged in the last year or so.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: demand for #gold among #retailinvestors has exploded over the past year
Chart indicating foreign buyers bought more US assets in 2025 than in 2024 in four categories: equities Treasury bonds and notes, corporate bonds and government agency bonds.
Apollo Global Management Chief Economist #TorstenSlok: “Despite the turbulence surrounding #LiberationDay in April, #foreign #investors ended up buying more #US #assets in 2025 than in 2024.
#markets #Usecon
A chart indicating a gradual increase in the number of companies in the Russell 2000 that have negative earnings. It’s currently about 40%.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: Forty percent of #companies in the #Russell2000 Index have no #earnings
A chart indicating a levelling off of AI adoption.
1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management:
“Data from the Census Bureau and Ramp shows that #AI adoption rates are starting to flatten out across all firm sizes” 🧵
A chart illustrating the recent increase in the number of CPI basket items with a more than 3% price increase above the 50% level.
#TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: Looking at annualized month-over-month growth rates shows that 55% of items in the #CPI basket are growing faster than 3%. This is the reason why it is difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. #inflation #USEconomy
