Globe and Mail Headline: Poilievre may lose his Ottawa-area riding as Liberals poised to sweep the region
ROBERT FIFE
Ottawa Bureau Chief
The Globe is not identifying the Conservative sources, two of whom are from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, because they were not authorized to discuss the Conservative campaign or internal polling.
They say the Poilievre Conservatives are also deploying troops from the party's Ottawa war room to Conservative-held ridings, a sign in the final days of the campaign that the party may be poised to lose seats to the Mark Carney-led Liberals. It is standard practice in the final week of a campaign for war-room staff to be sent to ridings that are either vulnerable or have the chance of an upset victory.
The two sources from the Ontario party, and a senior federal Liberal, all with access to internal polling, say that Mr. Poilievre is in a dead heat with Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in Car-leton, a riding the Conservative Leader won with 52 per cent of the vote in 2021 and 46 percent in 2019
The two sources in the Ontario PC Party say an internal poll completed Tuesday shows the Liberals hold a 53-per-cent advantage in Ottawa-area ridings, with the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 10 per cent. The Doug Ford-led party did not poll in Carleton.
However, the senior federal Liberal insider said the Liberals have polled in the riding and Mr.
Fanjoy is in a dead heat with Mr. Poilievre, at 48 per cent and 49 per cent, respectively. The Liberals polled 381 people and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Former Conservative Senate leader Marjory LeBreton, who served in Stephen Harper's cabinet and, before that, had worked for every party leader since John Diefenbaker, said Mr. Poilievre can't survive as leader if he loses the federal election.
"If Pierre has the same results as we had under Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer and he loses his riding as well, all hell will break loose. The party will fracture," said Ms. LeBreton, who served in Mr. Poilievre's riding association. She resigned over Mr. Poilievre's support of the trucker convoy on Parliament Hill.
"It's a sad day for the party that this has hap-pened," Ms. LeBreton said.
Provincially, Ontario PC polling numbers have the federal Liberals at 50 per cent compared with 36 per cent for the Conservatives and 9 per cent for the NDP.
‘Poilievre may lose his Ottawa-area riding as Liberals poised to sweep the region
Marjory LeBreton, who served in Harper’s cabinet &, before that, had worked for every party leader since John Diefenbaker, said Mr. Poilievre can’t survive as leader if he loses the federal election’
#VoteFanjoy 1/
