From 61 elections, 200k+ voters:
Most decisions aren’t made early.
They’re made in the final 60 days—through belief updating, not belief flipping.
Campaigns shift perception, not policy views.
🧾 Le Pennec & Pons (2022)
🔗 www.nber.org/papers/...
#VoteFocus1
Source:
Le Pennec & Pons (2022)
Vote Choice Formation and Minimal Effects of TV Debates
www.nber.org/papers/...
#VoteFocus1 #MediaLiteracy #Disinformation #ForumThreads
The big picture:
Beliefs shift without changing values
Decisions firm up late
Debates don’t persuade
Campaigns shape attention—not opinion
This lays the foundation for understanding how influence works.
#VoteFocus1
So what does?
Slow, cumulative shifts.
Repeated exposure.
Trusted sources.
And the increasing salience of issues people already care about.
Campaigns don’t flip minds.
They anchor and activate them.
#VoteFocus1
This is attention-based persuasion.
People don’t flip from left to right or vice versa.
They refine which candidate they trust to deliver on what already matters to them.
Campaigns shape perception more than belief.
#VoteFocus1
On average, the share of voters whose preferences match their final vote rises by 15 percentage points in the final two months.
That means large groups of voters are still forming or adjusting their choices right before the election.
#VoteFocus1
You’ve probably heard it:
“Voters make up their minds long before election day.”
Turns out, that’s not quite true.
A major study of 61 elections shows that many voters decide late—but not randomly.
#VoteFocus1
