Debates?
High drama, low impact.
Even under ideal conditions, their persuasive power is minimal—2–3% at best.
Campaigns don’t hinge on moments. They accumulate over time.
🧾 Jun & Lee (2025)
🔗 arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
#VoteFocus2
Sources:
Jun & Lee (2025)
Bounding the Effect of Persuasion
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Le Pennec & Pons (2022)
www.nber.org/papers/...
#VoteFocus2 #Disinformation #ForumThreads #MediaLiteracy #PersuasionMyths
So while parties and media chase “debate moments,” the real shifts happen through slower, more distributed channels:
– Headlines
– Social media cues
– Peer amplification
– Framing in repetition
Debates look big. Influence runs quiet.
#VoteFocus2
Here’s what matters more:
– Long-term perception of competence
– Trust cues built through repeated exposure
– Alignment with issue salience
– What your social circle thinks and shares
Debates don’t shape this. Campaign flow does.
#VoteFocus2
Jun & Lee (2025) revisited this question with updated models.
They tested the maximum persuasive effect debates could have under generous assumptions.
The result?
A ceiling of 2–3% vote shift, and that’s at the high end.
#VoteFocus2
TV debates are treated like campaign centerpieces.
They’re hyped, dissected, and expected to sway voters.
But here’s the reality—according to new and old data:
Debates almost never change the outcome.
#VoteFocus2
