Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices
The risk of regime violence has long been baked into the global price of oil and gas—and everything else.
By Peter Navarro
March 12, 2026 5:17 pm ET
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DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS
President Trump’s decision to confront Iran’s advancing nuclear program, stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and promotion of terrorism addresses an urgent national-security threat. It also tackles an overlooked problem: For more than four decades, Iran’s rogue behavior has imposed a hidden tax on the world economy through higher oil prices and slower growth. Call it the “Iran Terror Premium.”
Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf, much of it through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. When markets price crude oil, they must account for the risk that conflict, sabotage and terrorism will interrupt these flows. Iran creates that risk through its own forces and through proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and militias in Iraq, which have targeted energy infrastructure, shipping routes and regional oil facilities.
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