#bcstx has seen less than 40% of normal rainfall since September.
The last 7 months should have left behind ~25".
We're more than 15 inches in the hole to close out March.
#bcstx #drought #txwx
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Much-needed drink of water looks to be in the works for Texas & the Brazos Valley as we step into #Easter Weekend.
@nws.noaa.gov's WPC outlook for potential rain Thursday - Easter Sunday ⤵️ #txwx #bcstx
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Easterwood Airport officially dropped to 30° Tuesday morning.
This is the 2nd coldest temperature recorded in #bcstx on March 17th (#1 - 29° - 1892).
This also makes just the 11th freeze of the 2025-26 winter season
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As of 4pm, #bcstx has officially touched 86° at Easterwood Airport (as we wait for a strong, late season cold front).
This is now the SECOND warmest March 15th of record.
Near-record, mid-March heat now 3x more likely to occur due to climate change
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Plans out & about on this Saturday in the Brazos Valley?
⏰May want to have them wrapped up by 2pm here in #bcstx.
Line of rain/storms expected to fill in & crash through the area N➡️SSE mid-afternoon through early evening
Latest forecast for what radar could look like ⤵️
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SATURDAY: Planning out your day across the Brazos Valley? Other than a few, passing showers -- pre 2-3pm should be good-to-go.
⏰Mid-afternoon → late evening
⛈️Scat'd rain/storms upend late day outdoor plans
⚠️Heavy rain, lightning, isolated hail potential
#bcstx #txwx
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Mighty fine day of [needed] rain for the Brazos Valley.
As of 6pm, #bcstx has collected 1.62" of rain. That is:
• The 2nd MOST rainfall of record for February 14th
• The most rain that has fallen in 112 days (October 12th - 3")
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Two different versions of a forecast for what the radar could look like SATURDAY early evening across the Brazos Valley.
◀️HRRR - 5pm
▶️RRFS - 6pm
For #bcstx this currently looks to be the biggest storm window. Plan accordingly for #ValentinesDay evening plans #txwx
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We've had a chill here & there—but winter didn't really show up in the Brazos Valley this year
🌡️This winter is TIED as the 10th warmest Dec-Feb on record in #bcstx (56.1°, +2.8° above average)
🔴Long-term data shows us: winters are not only getting warmer, but shorter here
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Planning #ValentinesDay evening plans across the Brazos Valley or #bcstx?
Below is a starting point for what radar *could* look like/timeline
#txwx
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Window is small. CAP will be mighty thin, but there's a small chance we could see one or two stronger/briefly severe storms that come along with Saturday's (Valentine's Day) rain chance across the Brazos Valley.
Analogs put us in the 30%-40% chance of at least 1 svr report w/in 70miles of #bcstx
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#bcstx is headed for the 5th 80° day of 2026 this afternoon.
On average, the 1st 80° day typically should show up on/around March 20th.
83° would tie as the 3rd WARMEST Feb 9th of record locally.
🔴Near-record Feb warmth made at least TWICE as likely due to climate change
#txwx
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Need housing aid? Find local Bryan resources to help you today! 🏠 #Housing #Support #BCSTX focusonbryan.wordpress.com/local-housin...
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What a warm nose!
Midday sounding (snapshot of the atmosphere) launched from #bcstx courtesy @tamuatmo.bsky.social.
As rain chance comes together, warm air above the surface will have it falling as rain.
As we drop below freezing here at the ground, that will turn it into freezing rain. #txwx
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There's a lot to love ❤️ about the #BCSTX 🤠 area but a true #LocalGem 💎 is #TheFarmPatch 🚜 for the BEST 🤩 fresh produce and hard to find items... imagine if a #FarmersMarket and #ThriveMarket had a really cool kid... a must stop when I'm out running errands. #BigFoxTravels 🦊 #NomadBlackBook 📓
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One heck of a warm nose...
0z NAM 12km forecast sounding for what the atmosphere will look like over the Brazos Valley Saturday night.
Warm, moist air ~2,500' - 10,000' allows rain to fall.
At/sub-32°, shallow Arctic air at the ground allows it to freeze on contact
#bcstx
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8-10 hour freeze on deck for the Brazos Valley tonight (assuming this evening cloud deck scoots out as expected)
Sunday morning sunrise temperatures: 24° - 30° across the area.
#bcstx should be able to click down around 28° to start the day.
Coldest temps since mid/late Feb '25
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Critical Fire Weather in the Brazos Valley today (Saturday)
🚫🔥 RED FLAG WARNING in effect until 8pm
Brisk north winds to 15-25mph + extremely dry air (humidity <20%) + dormant vegetation = a small spark that can ignite & spread quickly
#txwx #bcstx
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✨ Master the walk by becoming the pack leader your dog needs. Stop the lunging and start leading! #DogTraining #PetCare #BCSTX focusonbryan.wordpress.com/2026/01/07/m...
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A RECORD WARM start to this January 8th in #bcstx (and by a w i d e margin...)
Easterwood Airport only dropped to 70° this morning.
Previous Record High Minimum (warmest low temperature): 65° set 119 years ago in 1907
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Zooming out:
January can still bring cold snaps, but overall, daytime highs in this first month of the year have warmed over the past 50+ years.
On average, #bcstx January highs are up nearly 6° since *just* 1970.
(data: @climatecentral.org)
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Preliminary high (as of 4pm) at Easterwood Airport: 88°
That shatters the previous Jan. 2 record in #bcstx (81°, set in 2000).
It also TIES as the SECOND HOTTEST January day in 140+ years of records.
(#1 January Record: 90° on Jan. 8, 1999)
#txwx
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...and just like that we blasted past the old record high for the day here in #bcstx.
Old record: 81° - 2000
Still room to nudge this higher this afternoon...
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It's January 2 and records are expected to fall across Texas cities.
For #bcstx, 4 of our 5 warmest Jan 2nd temps have happened since 2000.
Let's dive in & get you caught up on why the fire danger is high in Central Texas, too ⤵️
shelwinkleywx.substack.com/p/new-year-s...
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Record high for January 2nd in #bcstx: 81° set in 2000.
Today? We’re likely headed for 83°–85° to rewrite the record.
That’s more than 20° above average.
January heat climate change has made at least TWICE as likely (during what is expected to be our coolest time of the year)
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After a spring-like holiday week, enjoy the [brief] winter chill, Brazos Valley?
This winter whiplash is part of a larger trend in our warming climate.
#bcstx, winter cold streaks (2+ days below avg) have slipped over the last 50+ years.
Cold happens, but in much shorter order
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