Credit: thepoint.com.au/opinions/260...

#auspol #cashrate #OilPrices

Rather not! I don’t know! 🤷‍♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑

#cashrate #forecast #rstats

RBA Raises Rates to 3.85% as Inflation Proves Stubborn The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on 3 February, the first hike in over two years. Inflation sits at 3.8%, above target, while mortgage stress rises.

RBA Raises Rates to 3.85% as Inflation Proves Stubborn

#RBA #InterestRates #AusNews #Inflation #CashRate #AusEconomy

thedailyperspective.org/article/2026-03-08-rba-r...

It's definitely a possibility! 🤷‍♂️ The bond yield curve models for the monthly data are set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not certain 🤷

#rstats #cashrate #forecast

New Zealand central bank to cut cash rate by 25 bps to 3% on August 20: Reuters poll BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower its key interest rate to 3% on Wednesday to support the economy amid contained inflation and labour market weakness, a Reuters poll showed. In July, the central bank held rates at 3.25%, citing near-term inflation risks, but signaled readiness to ease if price pressures fell. Inflation was at 2.7% in the last quarter, within the RBNZ’s 1-3% targeted range, and expectations have edged lower. But the jobless rate climbed to 5.2% in the second quarter, the highest since late 2020. That, along with broad economic weakness, is likely to nudge the central bank to cut rates to support a recovery. Over 90% of economists surveyed, or 28 of 30 in an August 11-14 Reuters poll, expected the RBNZ to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% on August 20. Two expected no change. "The bank signalled reasonably clearly at the last review it was going to resume the path of cutting if the economy continued to come out as expected in terms of some of the weakness that we’ve seen across indicators and if inflation remains more or less in line with their forecasts. Both of those have occurred," said Gareth Kiernan, director at Infometrics. "We’re expecting a cut by the Reserve Bank to take the official cash rate down to 3%." While economists agreed the RBNZ was nearing the end of its easing cycle, there was no consensus on the terminal rate or when it would be reached. Among major New Zealand banks, ASB and Westpac did not anticipate further easing after next week’s possible cut. BNZ sees rates at 2.75% by end-2025 while ANZ and Kiwibank expect rates to fall to 2.50% next year. Of the 29 respondents who forecast rates through year-end, 14 saw them at 3%, 14 expected 2.75% and one predicted rates to stay at 3.25%. (Other stories from the August Reuters global economic poll) With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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It’s the third rate cut of the year, a welcome relief to mortgage holders.
The Reserve Bank has cut the #cashRate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.6%, from 3.85%.
Unanimous decision by the #RBA monetary policy board.
#PatrickCommins

This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats

New Zealand central bank holds cash rate at 3.25% By Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON (Reuters) -New Zealand’s central bank held the benchmark interest rate at 3.25% on Wednesday, but said it expected to loosen monetary policy if medium-term inflation pressures continued to ease as forecast. The decision was in line with a Reuters poll in which 19 of 27 economists surveyed forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would hold the cash rate for the first time since it started a cutting cycle in August 2024. The central bank has cut rates by 225 basis points since August, but with inflation at 2.5% and concerns that trade tensions could add to price pressures, the central bank has adopted a more cautious approach. "If medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected, the Committee expects to lower the Official Cash Rate further," the RBNZ said in its accompanying policy statement. "The economic outlook remains highly uncertain. Further data on the speed of New Zealand’s economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impacts of tariffs will influence the future path of the Official Cash Rate," the statement said. The minutes from the meeting said it expected to lower the rate in line with projections released at its May meeting. A global front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus, the RBNZ aggressively lifted rates 525 basis points between October 2021 and September 2023 to curb inflation. The punishing borrowing costs took a heavy toll on demand and tipped the economy into recession last year. While the economy has emerged from the slump, parts of it remain weak and growth is further hampered by slower global conditions and tight fiscal policy. The statement said while elevated export prices and lower interest rates are supporting a recovery in New Zealand, heightened global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to reduce global economic growth. "This will likely slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery, reducing inflation pressures," it said. New Zealand’s central bank is forecasting inflation will reach the top of the target band of 1% to 3% in second and third quarters of 2025.

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✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣

⭐ My system predicted previous twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐

forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky

✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣

⭐ My system predicted last twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky

Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate on Tuesday - why they might not Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate on Tuesday * Reuters poll: 31 of 37 economists expect cut to RBA cash rate by 25bp The statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia is due on July 8 at 2.30pm Sydney time: * 0430 GMT * 1230 US Eastern time As you can see, while it's a widely shared expectation, not all analysts are convinced. Bank of America analysts argues that the RBA is likely to hold steady, pointing to underlying inflation pressures that remain uncomfortably high: * specifically, the trimmed mean inflation gauge—a key measure closely watched by the central bank—is projected to exceed the 2.5% midpoint target in the upcoming quarterly data due at the end of July * at the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to remain below the RBA’s 4.2% estimate, highlighting ongoing labour market tightness. * adding to the concern, the analyst noted that unit labour costs remain elevated, driven by persistently weak productivity growth. This dynamic poses upside risks to inflation, even as headline price pressures ease. Against this backdrop, the case for a rate cut becomes less clear-cut, with lingering inflation risks potentially giving the RBA reason to pause and reassess before loosening policy. ps. I'm expecting a 25bp rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

| etsy.me/3RHihSQ | ctrendfx.com #RBA #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #InterestRates #Economics

RBA expected to hold cash rate at 3.85% amid inflation concerns Investing.com - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its cash rate target at 3.85% during its July 8 meeting, according to Bank of America, contradicting market consensus which anticipates a 25 basis point cut. BofA analysts cite persistent inflation concerns, with underlying inflation at the top of the target band and not projected to reach the midpoint before mid-2027. The Australian economy shows a positive output gap with accelerating demand amid supply constraints, while the labor market remains tighter than the RBA’s full employment assessment. Global economic uncertainties have diminished, improving growth outlooks as tariff de-escalation has progressed more rapidly than anticipated, though BofA cautions that challenges remain. Following 50 basis points of easing already implemented, analysts believe the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach before further policy adjustments. Market pricing currently indicates a terminal cash rate below 3%, which BofA considers "excessively rich" given potential upside risks to global and local rates from intensifying U.S. fiscal tailwinds. The analysis suggests current rate futures pricing may be overly optimistic. BofA also views rate differentials as supportive for the AUD/USD exchange rate, which has already benefited from declining dollar indexes and should find additional support from accelerating Chinese growth and stable USD/CNY rates. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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forecasting cash rate: a 15 bp cut is predicted for July

👽 My forecasts indicate another CUT. The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value. They include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease. 📉

👾 My system predicted correctly last 12 decisions. Will 13 become my lucky number?

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats

RBNZ poised to cut cash rate further amid economic recovery signs Investing.com -- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.25%, at the conclusion of its meeting on 28th May. This anticipated move comes as the nation’s economic recovery shows signs of faltering, with a weak labor market and a continued decline in underlying inflation. The bank’s decision is expected to signal an ongoing easing cycle. The RBNZ’s previous decision to cut rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting was widely anticipated. The Bank has maintained its confidence about meeting its price stability mandate. It noted that future inflation expectations and the degree of spare productive capacity in the economy are consistent with annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remaining close to the target midpoint over the medium term. The Committee has expressed concerns about the growing downside risks to its outlook, particularly in light of the global trade war. Despite these concerns, the New Zealand economy is believed to be better positioned than most others to navigate ongoing trade tensions. The trade war is expected to have a modest impact on the outlook for inflation. Despite a revised year-end forecast for the price of brent crude, from $70 per barrel to $60 per barrel, the resulting fall in automotive fuel prices is estimated to reduce headline inflation by just 0.1 percentage points for the rest of the year. Given that energy only accounts for 3% of firms’ total input costs, any secondary effects are likely to be minimal. According to Capital Economics, there is a compelling case for the RBNZ to provide further policy support. As such, the Bank is expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points at its meeting next week, a move that is fully priced into markets and anticipated by the analyst consensus. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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RBA in Australia reduces cash rate by 0.25% This is very welcome relief for millions of Australians. The post RBA in Australia reduces cash rate by 0.25% first appeared on VibeWire Magazine.

#Australia #BreakingNews #CashRate #ReserveBankofAustralia

BofA predicts RBA to cut cash rate to 3.85% in May hereremove ads Latest comments Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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😎 In line with expert opinions and market expectations, the combined forecasts from my models indicate a decisive CUT 📉 of the cash rate in May. The predictive intervals do not include the rate’s current value and include a 25bp cut ✅

🌐 forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#forecasting #cashrate #rstats

Having correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. My forecasts are available at: forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

#rstats #cashrate #forecasting #econsky

I have been forecasting RBA's decisions about the cash rate since October 2022⏳ answering the survey by www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate

The 3️⃣ major wins were that my forecasting system predicted: 👇

#forecasting #cashrate #rstats

Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my #forecasting system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on #cashrate. But it managed: bsky.app/profile/toma...

#rstats #econsky

आझ देउसो २.३० मा थाहा हुन्छ !
STAY TUNED!

#rba #cashrate

This or the next time 😎

#forecasting #cashrate #rstats #econsky

Forecasting cash rate - RBA Cash Rate Survey Forecasts

You can access these forecasts at forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats

Cherish the day! ✨💫 My forecasting system indicates that it's a decisive CUT 📉. The predictive intervals from the pooled forecast, including from all bond yield curve models, for the first time in years, do not include the current value of the cash rate. ✅

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky

Expect no changes in the cash rate for now. One should add “unsurprisingly” because all the statistical data releases and RBA’s communication indicate an extension of the wait for the first cut. My forecasts confirm this.

forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky

WOW! I have been doing the 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 for two years now! And it's been so much fun! 🚀

forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

#forecasting #cashrate #rstats #quarto #hydraplot

We're over it! ⭐ ... and we're going down soon! ✨ My forecasts are centred at HOLD for this month. We have just pasted the times of a high probability of RAISE as it went down from over 70 per cent in July to less than 50 per cent for the upcoming meeting.
#rstats #forecasting #cashrate #monetary

Forecasting cash rate - RBA Cash Rate Survey Forecasts

It's true to write that the Reserve Bank of Australia should increase the cash rate, but they will probably not.
You can access these forecasts at forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#forecasting #cashrate

Yet unlikely! 👻 👾 👽
My forecasts indicate the beginning of a downward trend in the cash rate. However, the uncertainty around this trend remains large enough to suggest a 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 decision. 🛑
For the first time in my forecasting, some models suggest a cut.

#rstats #quarto #cashrate #forecasting

This month, my forecasts settled quite firmly on 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗. The level of 4.35% is likely to stay unchanged by the second quarter of next year. This seems in line with RBA's communication, although the domestic sources of inflation talk could indicate otherwise.
#rba #cashrate #HOLD #rstats