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Original post on discuss.systems

nate and the others are right when they say: "no one is driving the bus". there is not a single root cause, or even a comprehensible combination of root causes, to any of this, you can simply "address" and let it RIP. sure, first we must accept the complex systems nature of it all. but once you […]

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THE FRACTALS OF FINANCE | Research Series Phase 2 | Episode 2 of 9 - ATS Trading The Coupled Spectrum Sixty-eight markets. One system. The coupling never switches off. Episode 1 proved that the near-zero autocorrelation is a lie. Beneath it, every market oscillates between periods...

The Coupling Never Switches Off

Markets don't suddenly synchronise during crises.

They were always coupled. The crisis just moved where on the spectrum they sat.

Episode 2 is live. atstradingsolutions.com/the-fractals...

#TheFractalsOfFinance #TrendFollowing #ComplexSystems #QuantitativeFinance

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Structural Compression in Discrete Preference Systems: An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Automobile Color Distribution (1990–2020) This preprint presents an information-theoretic analysis of automobile exterior color distributions from 1990 to 2020 as a proxy for structural compression in a discrete sociotechnical preference syst...

We didn’t lose colors.
We stopped using them.

What if this isn’t taste …

but a measurable collapse of choice?

doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #complexsystems 🖖

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Belgrade School of Complex Systems 2026 The Belgrade School on Complex Systems (BeComplex 2026) is an international workshop organized by the Faculty of Physics at the University of Belgrade. It is scheduled to take place from June 21 to Ju...

Belgrade School of Complex Systems 2026

Application deadline: April 11

#BeComplex2026 #School #ComplexSystems #Transdiciplinary ./6

www.complexitycat.org/posts/belgra...

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Geometry, Observability, and the Limits of Early Warning Signals in Complex Systems: A Dissertation Summary This dissertation summary presents a theoretical framework addressing a persistent limitation in the detection of critical transitions in complex systems. Classical early warning signals (EWS), such a...

Early warning signals don’t always fail because of noise …

sometimes they’re simply invisible.

A structural detectability limit: alignment determines what we can see. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Geometry, Observability, and the Limits of Early Warning Signals in Complex Systems: A Dissertation Summary This dissertation summary presents a theoretical framework addressing a persistent limitation in the detection of critical transitions in complex systems. Classical early warning signals (EWS), such a...

If early warning signals fail, is it really noise …

or the geometry of observation?

A dissertation summary shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS #CriticalTransitions 🖖

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Geometry-Driven Failure of Early Warning Signals: A Detectability Bound Under Projection Early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions—such as rising variance and autocorrelation—are widely used to anticipate abrupt changes in complex systems. However, their empirical performance is...

If early warning signals fail, is it noise — or geometry?

A detectability bound shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost.

doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19329813 #EWS #ComplexSystems 🖖

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Can plasticity -a system’s capacity for change- be quantified before change occurs?

Plasticity is here formalized as a priori network quantity, reframing it as a prospective, predictive tool for complex systems

Comments welcome
📂 arxiv.org/abs/2603.25180

#ComplexSystems #Plasticity #Neuroscience

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Bernd von Mallinckrodt D @vonmallinck... • jetzt Was wie #stabileRealität erscheint, ...
ist oft nur eine Perspektive...
die zeigt, dass Struktur, Wahrnehmung und Projektion auseinanderfallen können, zwischen sichtbarer Dynamik und verborgener Zustandsgeometrie.
Eine neue Perspektive?
#Mallinckrodt-Zyklus, #OntologieDerSchwingung,
#CRTI, #PID🖖

Bernd von Mallinckrodt D @vonmallinck... • jetzt Was wie #stabileRealität erscheint, ... ist oft nur eine Perspektive... die zeigt, dass Struktur, Wahrnehmung und Projektion auseinanderfallen können, zwischen sichtbarer Dynamik und verborgener Zustandsgeometrie. Eine neue Perspektive? #Mallinckrodt-Zyklus, #OntologieDerSchwingung, #CRTI, #PID🖖

Was wie #stabileRealität erscheint,
ist oft nur eine Perspektive.

Nicht die sichtbare Dynamik täuscht …

sondern die Projektion, die ihre Struktur verbirgt.

Das ist kein Wahrnehmungsfehler.

Es ist Systemarchitektur.

#CRTI #PID #ComplexSystems 🖖

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#ComplexSystems #MachineLearning #Neuroscience #InformationTheory #CRTI 🖖

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A gentle reminder - the seminar is scheduled for upcoming monday evening at 19:30 IST. #ComplexSystems #webinarinvite #Zoomcodes #ComplexNetworks #IITMadras #NYU #PIK #ITCP #Turbulence #BoundaryLayer #NumericalMethods #ComputionalFluidDynamics #Bifurcation #NonlinearDynamics #FluidMechanics

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#complexsystems community: Any books on game theory for kids you’d recommend?

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We’re letting big corporations gamble with our lives. Act now, or the food could run out | George Monbiot The fragility of the global food system fills me with dread – and the war with Iran has exposed just how close to collapse it is, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... #globalfoodsupply #foodsupplyrisks #Complexsystems #massstarvation #justintimesupply #supplychains

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#ArtificialLife #AgenticAI #ComplexSystems #AISafety #AISecurity #Emergence #TrustworthyAI #CallForContributions 🦀

Co-organized with Reiji Suzuki, @kl4sp.bsky.social, Michael Riegler, Kazuya Horibe, Keita Nashimoto

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CRTI Empirical Validation Pipeline: A Pre-Registered, Falsification-First Test on the Peter Lake Regime-Shift Dataset This document presents a fully specified, pre-registered empirical validation pipeline for testing the CRTI (Compression–Response/Resonance Thermodynamic Index) framework on a canonical ecological reg...

Systems don’t just collapse …

they can be tested before they do.

This pre-registered pipeline defines a falsification-first empirical test of the #CRTI framework on the Peter Lake regime shift dataset. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #EarlyWarning #DynamicalSystems #ComplexSystems
🖖

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Bistability and Basin Classification in Competitive Adaptive Systems: A Structural Framework and Scalar Index for Regime-Shift Analysis This paper introduces a structural class of two-dimensional competitive adaptive systems (CRTI-class systems) defined by competitive coupling, self-limitation, and a compact invariant domain. Using Po...

Systems rarely collapse out of nowhere …

they cross invisible boundaries first.

This paper shows why those boundaries must exist in competitive adaptive systems and how a simple index T = R/\Phi can locally signal proximity. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarning #DynamicalSystems 🖖

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A conceptual infographic illustrating the reduction of multi-dimensional complexity to a one-dimensional scalar. On the left, a colorful, intricate network labeled "THE RICH, MULTIDIMENSIONAL DATA LATTICE (Rⁿ)" with nodes representing "CO₂ SEQUESTRATION," "CREATIVE OUTPUT," "COMMUNITY TRUST," "BIODIVERSITY COEFFICIENT," and "FAMILY WELLBEING," and an arrow pointing to "n-dimensionality complexity, tensors." This complex network enters a cylindrical filter, labeled with various mathematical formulas like (∇•v) = and ∂/∂t ∇[A][x] = [b], showing a conversion function f: Rⁿ -> R¹. On the right, a single grey horizontal line labeled "THE ECONOMIC SCALAR (R¹)" with a pointer and a grey text box that reads "Value: 42." At the bottom, a text box states: "REDUCING NON-LINEAR COMPLEXITY TO A SCALAR IS MASSIVE MATHEMATICAL INFORMATION LOSS" and "FROM Rⁿ TO R¹: THE COLLAPSE OF STATE SPACE."

@nntaleb.bsky.social @veritasium.bsky.social
@jasonhickel.bsky.social
@billmckibben.bsky.social
@sfiscience.bsky.social
@yaneerbaryam.bsky.social
@johncarlosbaez.bsky.social
@hossenfelder.bsky.social
@katecrawford.bsky.social

A conceptual infographic illustrating the reduction of multi-dimensional complexity to a one-dimensional scalar. On the left, a colorful, intricate network labeled "THE RICH, MULTIDIMENSIONAL DATA LATTICE (Rⁿ)" with nodes representing "CO₂ SEQUESTRATION," "CREATIVE OUTPUT," "COMMUNITY TRUST," "BIODIVERSITY COEFFICIENT," and "FAMILY WELLBEING," and an arrow pointing to "n-dimensionality complexity, tensors." This complex network enters a cylindrical filter, labeled with various mathematical formulas like (∇•v) = and ∂/∂t ∇[A][x] = [b], showing a conversion function f: Rⁿ -> R¹. On the right, a single grey horizontal line labeled "THE ECONOMIC SCALAR (R¹)" with a pointer and a grey text box that reads "Value: 42." At the bottom, a text box states: "REDUCING NON-LINEAR COMPLEXITY TO A SCALAR IS MASSIVE MATHEMATICAL INFORMATION LOSS" and "FROM Rⁿ TO R¹: THE COLLAPSE OF STATE SPACE." @nntaleb.bsky.social @veritasium.bsky.social @jasonhickel.bsky.social @billmckibben.bsky.social @sfiscience.bsky.social @yaneerbaryam.bsky.social @johncarlosbaez.bsky.social @hossenfelder.bsky.social @katecrawford.bsky.social

Pricing is mathematically a projection from ℝⁿ → ℝ¹.

Imagine describing physics using only velocity.

You’d miss almost everything. No model would work using this approach.

#Math #ComplexSystems #EconSky

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Sign Up | LinkedIn 500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.

"Optimizing classroom assignments to minimize epidemiological risk: the sibling rewiring problem"

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

@UBUinvestiga @adingor @Comsotec @insisoc @josemgalan6 @virginia_ahedo
@nchsantos @Silvidf_10

#Optimization #DataScience #ComplexSystems #Education #Epidemiology

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Understanding complex systems competencies required in engineering graduates - Engineering Professors Council Core competencies required to effectively engage with complex systems.

Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit knowledge article outlines the core competencies required for engineering students to effectively engage with complex systems.

#ComplexSystems #ComplexSystemsToolkit #SystemsThinking #Engineering #Engineer #Education #HigherEducation #Teaching

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What makes this study especially timely is that it asks a question that is becoming central for AI: what happens when we stop looking at a single intelligent agent in isolation and start looking at many of them interacting as a collective?

#ComplexSystems #AI

2/

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Looking forward to working on #AdaptiveManagement at the #ComplexSystems Summer School at @sfiscience.bsky.social ! Re-reading @melaniemitchell.bsky.social and spending the next couple of months trying to become minimally fluent in the mathematical and computational side of the science.

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Congratulations to Noam Abadi on defending her PhD at the University of Groningen

Her thesis, “Maximum caliber networks: Theoretical tools for complex systems,”

Congrats to the new doctor and supervisors!

🔗 www.rug.nl/about-ug/lat...

#PhDDefense #ComplexSystems

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BeyondTheEdge - Graphs are maximally expressive for higher order interactions
BeyondTheEdge - Graphs are maximally expressive for higher order interactions YouTube video by BeyondTheEdgeMSCA

In the latest Beyond the Edge seminar, Tiago P. Peixoto presented recent work entitled “Graphs are maximally expressive for higher-order interactions” (with Leto Peel, Thilo Gross, and Manlio De Domenico).

Watch it here:
youtu.be/2Czu8Bf9qWw?...

#NetworkScience #ComplexSystems

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Dynamical Indicators Provide Six to Ten Years of Additional Early Warning of Fisheries Collapse Beyond Classical Reference Points This study examines whether structural-dynamical indicators provide earlier detection of fisheries collapse than classical reference-point metrics such as fishing pressure (F/F_MSY) and spawning stock...

Dynamical indicators (autocorrelation, biomass trajectory) detect fisheries collapse 6–10 years earlier than classical reference points …

while AUC is already saturated. contribution isn’t better classification, it’s earlier detection.

doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #earlywarning #complexsystems 🖖

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Chaos is not the absence of structure.

It’s structure not yet understood.

Emergence isn’t random.
It happens when a system finds a stable basin.

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#AI #ComplexSystems #Emergence

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People talk about “introspection.”
I’d rather measure trajectory drift.

New short preprint + deterministic demo: systems can look valid step to step while losing coherence over time.

Paper: zenodo.org/records/1907...
Demo: github.com/putmanmodel/...

#AI #ComplexSystems #TemporalDynamics

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This month, CTCS (IIT Madras) & @pik-potsdam.bsky.social present a webinar
📢: The asymptotic state of decaying turbulence
🎙️: Prof. K. R. Sreenivasan, @nyu.edu
📅: March 30 |⏰19:30 IST | 16:00 CEST | 10:00 EDT
🔗: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
#phd #ComplexSystems #Turbulence #NonlinearDynamics #NYU

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Takeaway:

Small changes in how students are assigned can:
✔️ Reduce epidemic risk
✔️ Keep solutions fair
✔️ Be practical for real schools

👉 Network science can inform better educational policies

#ComplexSystems #Epidemiology #AI

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Complex Systems Toolkit: Engineering complex systems glossary - Engineering Professors Council Definitions of key terms.

Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit knowledge article “Engineering complex systems glossary” contains definitions of key terms relevant to Engineered Complex Systems.

epc.ac.uk/toolkit/comp...

#ComplexSystems #SystemsThinking #Engineering #Engineer #Education #HigherEducation #Teaching #HigherEd

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ALIFE 2026 Call for Papers The deadline for paper submissions for the ALife 2026 conference is March 30, 2026, 11:59 p.m. UTC-12:00 (Anywhere on Earth).

ALIFE 2026 | Call for Papers

Submission deadline: March 30

#ALIFE2026 #Conference #ALife #ComplexSystems #Modeling #Simulation #Lifelike ./20

www.complexitycat.org/posts/ALIFE-...

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