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EFTA01981558 | EFTA01981563
.J.P.Morgan

Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
11 My 2014

Jan Loeys

Global Economic Outlook Summary
Real GDP
%owxayear ago
2014
2015
2013

4Q13

Real GDP
%aerawfous peed. isar
1Q14
2014
3014
4014

1Q15

4Q13

Consumer prices
%wain*
2014
4014

4015

United States
Canada
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela

1.9
2.0
2.5
2.9
2.5
4.1
4.7
4.5
1.1
5.8
4.7
1.3

1.4
2.2
1.6
-1.5
1.1
2.5
5.0
3.3
2.9
4.2
3.0
-1.0

2.9
2.6
2.9
3.0
1.8
3.5
45
4.0
3.8
55
4.0
2.5

2.6
2.7
1.5
4.8
1.8
-0.4
31
4.7
0.5
6.9
6.4
2.3

-2.9
12
01
42
0.7
3.0
9.7
2,0
1.1
0.3
-1.8
41

2.5
22
1.4
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21
21
1.5
4,Q
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0.0

3.0
2.5
2.1
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1.8
4.0
4.0
2.0
3.9
6.0
6.0 t
2.5

3.0
2.7
28
-1.4
2.7
2.8
4.0
2.5
3.7
7.0
40 t
2.0

3.0
2.8
3.1
4.0
22
3.2
5.0
35
3.6
5.5
3.0 4
25

12
0.9
4.5
10.7
5.8
2.5
1.8
2.3
33
3.0
8.6
52.9

2.1
2.5 t
5.0
34.0
6.3
4.5
2.8
3,4 t
3.7
32
81
572

2.4
2.3
5.1
40.0
6.3
4.2 4
3.2
3.5 t
4.1
3.0
75
58.2

1.9
2.0 4
4.7
45.0
6.3
3.0
3.0
4.0
3.1
2.5
7.3
35.0

Asia/Pacific
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
EM Asia
China
India
EM Asia ex Chinaandia
Hong Kai
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Ssigapore
Taiwan
Thailand

4.6
1.5
2A
2.8
6.2
7.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
5.8
3.0
4.7
7.2
3.9
2.1
2.9

4.5 1
1.3 4
3.0
32
61
72
5.3
4.0
2.8
49
38
55
6.0
4.4
35
11

4.8
1.4 4
32
2.8
6.4
72
65
4.6
2.6
SI
40
5.1
6.4
SA
38
42

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0.3
32
41
6.4
7.6
42
5.1
3.6
6.0
3.6
7.6
6.1
69
7.6
0.5

5.3
6.7
45
4.0
48
5.9
5.0
2.3
0.8
4.1
3.8
3.3
4.9
2.3
1.9
42

22 4
41 4
LI
OA
Id t
12
6_,Q t
4A t
11
5.,Q
21 t
Ill
LA
91
3.5

5.3 t
3.0 t
3.1
1.9
6.5
7.6
5.5
4.7
4.2
5.0
4.7
5.5
5.7
4.9
4.0
4.0

50
2.0
4.3
4.7
6.3 4
7.4
5.0 4
4.6
42
45
4.0
5.5
5.7
6.6
4.2
4.0

4.8
2.0
2.9
4.8
62
7.1
6.0 4
4.4
20
5.3
4.0
50
65
49
3.8
42

32
IA
2.7
1.6
40
2.9
10.6
3.3
4.3
54
IA
30
3.5
2.0
0.6
1.7

3.3
38
2.9
18
3.1
1.9
8.6
32
3.6
62
1.6

EFTA01981558 | EFTA01981563 .J.P.Morgan Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 11 My 2014 Jan Loeys Global Economic Outlook Summary Real GDP %owxayear ago 2014 2015 2013 4Q13 Real GDP %aerawfous peed. isar 1Q14 2014 3014 4014 1Q15 4Q13 Consumer prices %wain* 2014 4014 4015 United States Canada Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay Venezuela 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.5 4.1 4.7 4.5 1.1 5.8 4.7 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.6 -1.5 1.1 2.5 5.0 3.3 2.9 4.2 3.0 -1.0 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.0 1.8 3.5 45 4.0 3.8 55 4.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.5 4.8 1.8 -0.4 31 4.7 0.5 6.9 6.4 2.3 -2.9 12 01 42 0.7 3.0 9.7 2,0 1.1 0.3 -1.8 41 2.5 22 1.4 S4: Q,2 21 21 1.5 4,Q I§ A4 t 0.0 3.0 2.5 2.1 .4.6 1.8 4.0 4.0 2.0 3.9 6.0 6.0 t 2.5 3.0 2.7 28 -1.4 2.7 2.8 4.0 2.5 3.7 7.0 40 t 2.0 3.0 2.8 3.1 4.0 22 3.2 5.0 35 3.6 5.5 3.0 4 25 12 0.9 4.5 10.7 5.8 2.5 1.8 2.3 33 3.0 8.6 52.9 2.1 2.5 t 5.0 34.0 6.3 4.5 2.8 3,4 t 3.7 32 81 572 2.4 2.3 5.1 40.0 6.3 4.2 4 3.2 3.5 t 4.1 3.0 75 58.2 1.9 2.0 4 4.7 45.0 6.3 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.1 2.5 7.3 35.0 Asia/Pacific Japan Australia New Zealand EM Asia China India EM Asia ex Chinaandia Hong Kai Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Ssigapore Taiwan Thailand 4.6 1.5 2A 2.8 6.2 7.7 4.7 4.0 2.9 5.8 3.0 4.7 7.2 3.9 2.1 2.9 4.5 1 1.3 4 3.0 32 61 72 5.3 4.0 2.8 49 38 55 6.0 4.4 35 11 4.8 1.4 4 32 2.8 6.4 72 65 4.6 2.6 SI 40 5.1 6.4 SA 38 42 IS 0.3 32 41 6.4 7.6 42 5.1 3.6 6.0 3.6 7.6 6.1 69 7.6 0.5 5.3 6.7 45 4.0 48 5.9 5.0 2.3 0.8 4.1 3.8 3.3 4.9 2.3 1.9 42 22 4 41 4 LI OA Id t 12 6_,Q t 4A t 11 5.,Q 21 t Ill LA 91 3.5 5.3 t 3.0 t 3.1 1.9 6.5 7.6 5.5 4.7 4.2 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.7 4.9 4.0 4.0 50 2.0 4.3 4.7 6.3 4 7.4 5.0 4 4.6 42 45 4.0 5.5 5.7 6.6 4.2 4.0 4.8 2.0 2.9 4.8 62 7.1 6.0 4 4.4 20 5.3 4.0 50 65 49 3.8 42 32 IA 2.7 1.6 40 2.9 10.6 3.3 4.3 54 IA 30 3.5 2.0 0.6 1.7 3.3 38 2.9 18 3.1 1.9 8.6 32 3.6 62 1.6

t
3.3
4.0
3.0
12
2.6

29
3.1
2.0
1.6
2.9
1.1
8.6
3.0
3.4
4.6
2.3
3.5
3.6
2.3
1.6
2.9

33
2.5
2.6
2.0
3.7
3.1
7.0
3.5
3.5
4.6
2.9
5.2
3.8
2.3
1.9
3.8

Western Europe
Euro area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Norway
Sweden
United Kingdom
EMEA EM
Czech Reputio
Hungary
Israel
Pdand
Romania
Russia
South Ahica
Turkey
Global
Developed markets
Emerging markets
Souroe J P Morgan

0.1
-0.4
05
0.4
4.8
-12
2.0
1.6
1.7
20
-0.9
1.1
3.4
IS
35
1.3
1.9
4.0
2.4
12
4.6

1.4 4
19 4
2.0 4
OA 4
0.0 4
1.3 t
1.9
2.2
3.0
1.8
2.8
30
3.3
32
3.2
0.5
18
3.0
2.5 4
1.5 4
4.3

22
2.0
2.3
1.7 4
1.3 1
22 t
2.3
25
30
2.7
2.8
25
3.8
32
3S
18
32
4.1
3.3
2.4
49

1.6 t
12 t
1.5
0.7
0.5
0.7
2.0
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2.6
32
6A
2.7
32
2.8
5.6 t
28
39
3.5
2.9
1.9
4.7

12 T
0.8 t
3.3
01
-0.5
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1.9
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3.3
0.6
32
45
2.7
45
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1.0 4
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91 4
4.1 t

1.8 4
1.5 4
2.0 4
1.0 4
1.0 4
2.0
1.9
25
3.0 t
2.4
2.0
2.0
3.6
3.0
2.0
2.3
4.5
1.2
3.3
23
4.8

2.2
2.0
25
1.5
1.5
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2.1
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2.3
2.3
2.5
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35
2.8 t
2.0
3.8
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3.4
26
4.8

22
20
2.5 t
2.0
1.5
20
2.3
25
30 4
2.9
42
30
32
35
3.6 4
20
2.9
4.1
3.4
2.5 1
49

10
0.8
1.3
0.8
0.7
02
2.3
01
2.1
51
1.1
03
1.9
0.7
1.8
6.4
5.4
75
2.3
12
4.3

OS
06
09
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02
18
41
1.6
5.6 4
0.2 4
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1.0
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1.0 1
74
6.5
9.1
2.6
1.9
4.0

0.9
0.8
1.1
0.7
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0.0
1.6
0.2
1.6
5.1
1.6 4
0.6 4
1.3
As
2.3 1
6.1
6.5 1'
81
26
1.9
3.8

1.3
1.1
17
1.1
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0.0
2.2
15
2.1
4.2
1.5
2.9 t
1.9
1.8 4
2.6 1
4.4
5.8 t
6.3
2.6
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IA
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2g

g

6

EFTA_R1_00470165

EFTA01981563

t 3.3 4.0 3.0 12 2.6 29 3.1 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.1 8.6 3.0 3.4 4.6 2.3 3.5 3.6 2.3 1.6 2.9 33 2.5 2.6 2.0 3.7 3.1 7.0 3.5 3.5 4.6 2.9 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.9 3.8 Western Europe Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Norway Sweden United Kingdom EMEA EM Czech Reputio Hungary Israel Pdand Romania Russia South Ahica Turkey Global Developed markets Emerging markets Souroe J P Morgan 0.1 -0.4 05 0.4 4.8 -12 2.0 1.6 1.7 20 -0.9 1.1 3.4 IS 35 1.3 1.9 4.0 2.4 12 4.6 1.4 4 19 4 2.0 4 OA 4 0.0 4 1.3 t 1.9 2.2 3.0 1.8 2.8 30 3.3 32 3.2 0.5 18 3.0 2.5 4 1.5 4 4.3 22 2.0 2.3 1.7 4 1.3 1 22 t 2.3 25 30 2.7 2.8 25 3.8 32 3S 18 32 4.1 3.3 2.4 49 1.6 t 12 t 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 2.0 6.5 2.6 32 6A 2.7 32 2.8 5.6 t 28 39 3.5 2.9 1.9 4.7 12 T 0.8 t 3.3 01 -0.5 IS 1.9 -0.3 3.3 0.6 32 45 2.7 45 0.7 t -3.4 -0.6 7.0 IA 4 1.0 4 Qa 4 LI 4 09 4 21 t 2.0 Z3 12 02 jj) 21 3.2 21 Ig j5 Q9 AA 19 4 91 4 4.1 t 1.8 4 1.5 4 2.0 4 1.0 4 1.0 4 2.0 1.9 25 3.0 t 2.4 2.0 2.0 3.6 3.0 2.0 2.3 4.5 1.2 3.3 23 4.8 2.2 2.0 25 1.5 1.5 20 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 45 35 2.8 t 2.0 3.8 OS 3.4 26 4.8 22 20 2.5 t 2.0 1.5 20 2.3 25 30 4 2.9 42 30 32 35 3.6 4 20 2.9 4.1 3.4 2.5 1 49 10 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 02 2.3 01 2.1 51 1.1 03 1.9 0.7 1.8 6.4 5.4 75 2.3 12 4.3 OS 06 09 OS OA 02 18 41 1.6 5.6 4 0.2 4 -OA 4 1.0 -01 1.0 1 74 6.5 9.1 2.6 1.9 4.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 05 0.0 1.6 0.2 1.6 5.1 1.6 4 0.6 4 1.3 As 2.3 1 6.1 6.5 1' 81 26 1.9 3.8 1.3 1.1 17 1.1 09 0.0 2.2 15 2.1 4.2 1.5 2.9 t 1.9 1.8 4 2.6 1 4.4 5.8 t 6.3 2.6 18 4.0 IA OS 2g g 6 EFTA_R1_00470165 EFTA01981563

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