People talk about “rains in the Plains,” but a large part of the winter wheat belt is still missing out.
Good/excellent fell again to 34% — one of the lowest ratings in decades.
Below-trend yield still looks likely.
#wheat #agwx #oatt #sizovreport
Funds cut positions in major winter #wheat contracts last week. But their spring wheat long remains near record highs for recent years.
Just noise, or a more specific weather bet that later-planted spring wheat suffers more this season?
#oatt #agwx #wheat #sizovreport
Funds are selling #wheat.
But US crop conditions are moving the other way.
Drought now covers 68% of wheat area - only 1 p.p. below 2022 extremes.
That year delivered one of the smallest crops in decades.
#oatt #sizovreport #oatt #agwx
We have a serious problem.
US winter #wheat enters spring in its worst condition in years after a sharp drop in crop ratings due to drought.
#oatt #sizovreport #agwx
Interesting price action in #wheat today.
Outside markets are substantially weaker - crude and soybeans are down.
Yet funds are not rushing to sell wheat.
They were heavy sellers on the previous two Mondays.
Something to watch.
#oatt #sizovreport
Ukraine #corn exports are forecast to accelerate after a slow start caused by infrastructure attacks and harvest delays.
#oatt #blacksea #sizovreport
Bulls are trading the headline.
But does this “extension” really mean +8 MMT of US beans — on top of 12 MMT this season and 25 MMT/year for 3 years?
Big assumption.
Bessent’s meeting with a top Chinese official soon could bring clarity.
#oatt #commodities #sizovreport
Ukrainian USD bonds just hit a new all-time high: 64%.
2025 low: 45%.
Meanwhile, Polymarket shows ceasefire odds at long-term lows.
Prediction markets are cautious. Credit markets are buying diplomacy.
I tend to trust the bond market.
#oatt #blacksea #wheat #sizovreport
So that ugly wick could be telling us there are doubts about China buying 8 mmt more #soybeans.
Makes sense imo.
Some clarity from (former) farmer Bessent could help bulls.
#oatt #sizovreport #china #goldenage
Argentina could finally see some rain…
But crop ratings have already dropped — and will likely keep sliding in the short term.
#corn #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
Another high in #wheat - contrary to my expectations.
* Other ags are weaker
* Crude is slightly softer (and metals are selling off at last, silver -15% (!))
* BUT funds are still covering...
#oatt #wheat #sizovreport
The market seems excited after Trump's #E15 announcement.
Let’s see how it reacts once it realizes:
🔹 There’s very limited #ethanol capacity left
🔹 So additional #corn demand this season is likely to be marginal
#oatt #sizovreport
🇺🇸 US #corn weekly export sales hit the highest level in years 🌽
Buyers rushed in after the WASDE sell-off to secure stocks.
#oatt #sizovreport #goldenage
Importers still need to eat - despite all the endless "#wheat glut" chatter.
Saudi Arabia bought a lot of #wheat over the weekend...
#oatt #sizovreport
Argentina’s #wheat and #corn production hit a new record in 2025/26 🌾🌽
Good weather and acreage expansion helped, supported by export tax cuts under President @JMilei
#oatt #argentina #sizovreport
Russia’s January #Wheat Exports Seen Above Average — SovEcon
Free note: blog.sizov.report/russias-janu...
#oatt #sizovreport #blacksea #russia
#Cocoa commodities index rebalancing trade is going great 🙃
Instead of moving higher, the market collapsed over 15%. Feels like it was heavily front-run.
$bcom #oatt #sizovreport
Russia & Global #grain market weekly, Dec 29-Jan 12:
* #Grain Rally Stalls After WASDE
* Russian January #Wheat Exports Seen Above Average
* Winter #Wheat Regions to Face Severe Cold Risk
Request a trial: sizov.report/reports/2853...
#oatt #agwx #sizovreport
Russia targeted sea ports in Odesa region overnight, damaging #grain elevators, civilian warehouses, a barge, and vessels flying Slovakian and Palauan flags - Deputy PM Kuleba.
We’re tracking this for our clients: sizov.report?utm_campaign...
#oatt #sizovreport #wheat #blacksea
#Crude (green) and #wheat (violet) are injecting some risk premium into prices amid geopolitical tensions...
Makes sense to me.
#oatt #sizovreport
Probably a non-starter for Putin IF true:
NYT: The U.S.-European peace plan to deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine calls for a more robust Ukrainian military, the deployment of European forces inside the country and increased use of American intelligence.
#oatt #blacksea #wheat #sizovreport
Black Sea ceasefire odds bounce again… tend to agree.
One of the reasons behind recent #wheat weakness.
#oatt #sizovreport
#Wheat (green) and WTI (black) don’t seem impressed by another attack on a merchant ship in the Black Sea.
We saw a spike on Friday after the previous attack (1).
But Saturday’s attack was largely ignored (2).
Both commodities are in the red now.
#oatt #sizovreport #oott #blacksea
#Soybeans are struggling at the moment…
Is there still a chance for a rebound?
China is still buying, and the pace is surprisingly fast.
#oatt #sizovreport
The sell-off in European #natgas continues… down 13% since mid-November. 📉
Is the market pricing in a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire — or is something else at play?
#oatt #sizovreport #oott
🇺🇦 Harvest delays and wartime logistics bottlenecks have pushed Ukraine’s #corn exports to an 8-year low.
Black Sea insights and data for funds and traders: sizov.report?utm_campaign...
#oatt #blacksea #ukraine #sizovreport
Black Sea ceasefire odds keep pushing higher. hashtag#Wheat doesn't like that...
Expect a lot of noise short term.
#oatt #sizovreport
Reuters: USDA’s Rollins says China soy deal expected “within 2 weeks.”
Wonder if it's the same deal that was supposed to be signed weeks ago, as per Bessent? $11+ #soybeans want to know...
#oatt #sizovreport
