Gradually, then suddenly… US #wheat crop conditions continue to deteriorate amid drought.
In Kansas - the top grower - the share of good/excellent wheat dropped again to 40% (-9 p.p YoY).
Conditions are likely to worsen further as rains are forecast to miss key western and central areas.
#oatt
Reuters - President Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an agriculture event at the White House next week as his administration moves to finalize new biofuel blending quotas.
#oatt #soybeans
Interesting price action in #wheat today.
Outside markets are substantially weaker - crude and soybeans are down.
Yet funds are not rushing to sell wheat.
They were heavy sellers on the previous two Mondays.
Something to watch.
#oatt #sizovreport
Over the past two decades global food prices have spiked several times due to macro or supply shocks.
Which scenario are we entering now — something similar to 2021–22?
#oatt #oott #foodsecurity #Iran
2002-2008 #commodities supercycle:
#crude +619%
#corn +257%
#soybeans +266%
#wheat +279%
broad commodities index (CRB) +218%
#oatt #oott
Russia’s #wheat price edge vs EU has largely disappeared.
SovEcon cuts 2025/26 exports to 45.4 mln t, lifts 2026/27 to 41.7 mln t. Russian offers now align with CVB, as the ruble firms.
Yet Feb shipments hit 3.3 mln t.
USDA unchanged.
Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-cuts...
#oatt
Trump’s State of the Union didn’t impress crude - or ags - bulls.
Usual threats toward Iran, but “I prefer diplomacy.”
No mention of deals with #China.
Are you tired of winning, bulls?
#oatt #oott
#Soybeans (candles) and WTI:
Ukraine #corn exports are forecast to accelerate after a slow start caused by infrastructure attacks and harvest delays.
#oatt #blacksea #sizovreport
SovEcon Raises Russian 2026 #Wheat Production Forecast; Risks for Winter Crops Remain
Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-rais...
#oatt #blacksea #agwx
Bulls are trading the headline.
But does this “extension” really mean +8 MMT of US beans — on top of 12 MMT this season and 25 MMT/year for 3 years?
Big assumption.
Bessent’s meeting with a top Chinese official soon could bring clarity.
#oatt #commodities #sizovreport
Ukrainian USD bonds just hit a new all-time high: 64%.
2025 low: 45%.
Meanwhile, Polymarket shows ceasefire odds at long-term lows.
Prediction markets are cautious. Credit markets are buying diplomacy.
I tend to trust the bond market.
#oatt #blacksea #wheat #sizovreport
"China is reported to be considering buying more US #soybeans"....
That's a bit strange language for WASDE, no? As I recall typically they are quite conservative and "reported to be considering" shouldn't impact their estimates until it's confirmed by actual bookings/shipments
#oatt #wasde
Soyoil is higher again today on India–US deal optimism.
But when will the market realize one thing?
US soyoil is hugely price uncompetitive vs South American oil. 🤷♂️
#oatt #commodities #soybeans
So that ugly wick could be telling us there are doubts about China buying 8 mmt more #soybeans.
Makes sense imo.
Some clarity from (former) farmer Bessent could help bulls.
#oatt #sizovreport #china #goldenage
Argentina could finally see some rain…
But crop ratings have already dropped — and will likely keep sliding in the short term.
#corn #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
Elevator up, elevator down... another -3% day for $BCOM.
Not great for ags. #Soybeans are holding up relatively well — for now.
#oatt #commodities
Another high in #wheat - contrary to my expectations.
* Other ags are weaker
* Crude is slightly softer (and metals are selling off at last, silver -15% (!))
* BUT funds are still covering...
#oatt #wheat #sizovreport
Grains are reversing lower on the back of a metals sell-off
CBOT #wheat (green) vs #gold (orange)
#oatt
The market seems excited after Trump's #E15 announcement.
Let’s see how it reacts once it realizes:
🔹 There’s very limited #ethanol capacity left
🔹 So additional #corn demand this season is likely to be marginal
#oatt #sizovreport
Trump to speak at Iowa rally today 🇺🇸
His mid-2025 speech triggered a sell-off in #soybeans/ag — no China deal, despite persistent rumors.
This time, E15 is in focus. Ethanol matters in Iowa.
#corn #oatt
#Wheat & #Corn Higher WoW amid Weather Risks, Broad Commodities Strength and Impressive US Exports
#oatt
🇺🇸 US #corn weekly export sales hit the highest level in years 🌽
Buyers rushed in after the WASDE sell-off to secure stocks.
#oatt #sizovreport #goldenage
#Soybeans took out yesterday high already...testing 200DMA again. The chart looks friendly.
Interesting to see US beans rallying - and potentially pricing themselves out - right after China booked ~12 MMT announced by the White House while the market should be asking: what’s next?
#oatt
SovEcon: Domestic Russian #Wheat Prices Fall to an 18-Month Low
Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-dome...
#oatt
Importers still need to eat - despite all the endless "#wheat glut" chatter.
Saudi Arabia bought a lot of #wheat over the weekend...
#oatt #sizovreport
EU readies €93bn tariffs in retaliation for Trump’s Greenland threat
Europe could also threaten to restrict US companies’ market access in run-up to crunch talks at Davos
www.ft.com/content/b287...
#oatt
Argentina’s #wheat and #corn production hit a new record in 2025/26 🌾🌽
Good weather and acreage expansion helped, supported by export tax cuts under President @JMilei
#oatt #argentina #sizovreport
Russia’s January #Wheat Exports Seen Above Average — SovEcon
Free note: blog.sizov.report/russias-janu...
#oatt #sizovreport #blacksea #russia
