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Posts by Box Office Theory

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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU ($71M+ 3-Day) Help Revive STAR WARS on the Big Screen for Memorial Weekend? Can one of the most beloved characters in the 49-year history of STAR WARS shepherd an effective transition away from the generationally iconic franchise's streaming-centric era?

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU Help Revive STAR WARS on the Big Screen for Memorial Weekend?

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#TheMandalorian #Grogu #BoxOffice #StarWars

1 week ago 1 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Eyes $70M+ Sophomore Frame; PROJECT HAIL MARY Legs to Keep Extending; YOU, ME & TUSCANY Aims for $8M+ Post-Easter weekend will see robust sophomore business for the MARIO sequel as it goes unchallenged across all key demographics.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Eyes $70M+ Sophomore Frame; PROJECT HAIL MARY Legs to Keep Extending; YOU, ME & TUSCANY Aims for $8M+

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#SuperMarioGalaxyMovie #ProjectHailMary #BoxOffice

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2, MICHAEL, and MORTAL KOMBAT II Continue Pacing for a Healthy Pre-Memorial Day Window; MARIO GALAXY Flying to $180-190M+ Start As MARIO GALAXY dominates Easter weekend, spring movie season is again in a solid spot as year-over-year box office is up more than 23%.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2, MICHAEL, + MORTAL KOMBAT II Pacing for a Healthy Pre-Memorial Day Window; #MarioGalaxy Flying to $180-190M+ Start

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#TheDevilWearsPrada2 #MichaelMovie #MortalKombatII #BoxOffice

2 weeks ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Trending Toward $170-185M+ 5-Day Easter Launch; PROJECT HAIL MARY and THE DRAMA Eye Strong Holiday Takes With over half of schools around the country out for Good Friday and Easter Sunday, Universal and Illumination's sequel is (again) perfectly timed.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Trending Toward $170-185M+ 5-Day Easter Launch; PROJECT HAIL MARY and THE DRAMA Eye Strong Holiday Takes

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#SuperMarioGalaxyMovie #TheDrama #ProjectHailMary #BoxOffice

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: MORTAL KOMBAT II ($40-45M+) Looks to Land R-Rated Video Game Punch; SUPER MARIO GALAXY & MICHAEL Updates The video game movie renaissance is poised to continue with Karl Urban's Johnny Cage highlighting strong early marketing for Warner Bros. and Midway's MKII.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: MORTAL KOMBAT II ($40-45M+) Looks to Land R-Rated Video Game Punch; SUPER MARIO GALAXY & MICHAEL Updates

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#MortalKombatII #SuperMarioGalaxy #Michael #TheDevilWearsPrada2 #BoxOffice

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: PROJECT HAIL MARY Eyes $43-49M+ Second Frame and More PLF Dominance as Stellar Word of Mouth Spreads Like Astrophage Believe in the Hail Mary... to score an excellent first chase weekend at the box office with no competition and a week to go before SUPER MARIO GALAXY drops.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: PROJECT HAIL MARY Eyes $43-49M+ Second Frame and More PLF Dominance as Stellar Word of Mouth Spreads Like Astrophage

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#ProjectHailMary #BoxOffice

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2 Shines in Early Trends, Looks to $55M+ May Debut; PROJECT HAIL MARY Soars to $12M in Previews — How High Will It Go? Summer is poised to start strong with THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2 hot in early buzz and pre-sales. Meanwhile, PROJECT HAIL MARY could soar above expectations following stellar preview results.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2 Shines in Early Trends, Looks to $55M+ May Debut; PROJECT HAIL MARY Soars to $12M Previews — How High Will It Go?

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#ProjectHailMary #DevilWearsPrada2 #SuperMarioGalaxyMovie #BoxOffice

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Andy Weir’s PROJECT HAIL MARY (~$60-70M+) Tracking for a Breakout Launch, Eyes Potential Amazon MGM Record and Career-Best Debuts for Gosling, Lord, & Miller Amazon MGM's most ambitious theatrical release yet could reap the rewards of crowd-pleasing buzz and an audience hunger for 2026's first "must see on the big screen" tentpole.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #ProjectHailMary ($60-70M+) Tracking for a Breakout Launch, Eyes Potential Amazon MGM Record and Career-Best Debuts for Gosling, Lord, & Miller

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#ProjectHailMary #AndyWeir #RyanGosling #BoxOffice #ReadyOrNot2

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Can MICHAEL ($52-65M+) Set the Stage for a Late Spring Smash?; PROJECT HAIL MARY ($50-60M+) and SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Check-Ins After years of speculation and expected controversy, Lionsgate and Antoine Fuqua's MICHAEL could ignite pre-summer box office as an eagerly anticipated biopic.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Can MICHAEL ($52-65M+) Set the Stage for a Late Spring Smash?; PROJECT HAIL MARY ($50-60M+) + SUPER MARIO GALAXY Check-Ins

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#MichaelMovie #MichaelJackson #ProjectHailMary #SuperMarioGalaxyMovie #BoxOffice

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Disney & Pixar’s HOPPERS ($25-27M+) to Out-Bounce the Field Again, REMINDERS OF HIM ($8M+) Courts Book Fans, and A24’s UNDERTONE ($7-8M+) Eyes Sleeper Potential With year-to-date box office up 12% from 2025 so far, HOPPERS aims to keep the momentum going in what should be a strong first hold for the original animated hit.

With year-to-date box office up 12% from 2025 so far, HOPPERS aims to keep the momentum going in what should be a strong first hold for the original animated hit.

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#Hoppers #Disney #Pixar #RemindersOfHim #Undertone

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: PROJECT HAIL MARY Trends Up; Early Outlook for LEE CRONIN’S THE MUMMY; Disney & Pixar’s HOPPERS Starts Strong in Previews Following GOAT, is original animation finally recovering with HOPPERS? Plus, PROJECT HAIL MARY expectations soar, and LEE CRONIN'S THE MUMMY hopes to provide a horror hit before summer.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: PROJECT HAIL MARY Trends Up; Early Outlook for LEE CRONIN’S THE MUMMY; Disney & Pixar’s HOPPERS Starts Strong in Previews

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#ProjectHailMary #TheMummy #Hoppers #TheBride #BoxOffice

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Pixar’s HOPPERS ($40M+) Eyes an Early Spring Breakout for Disney; Will THE BRIDE! Draw Adult Moviegoers? Has the death of original animation in theaters been greatly overexaggerated? Disney and Pixar hope to regain some of the medium's former box office glory this weekend.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: Pixar’s HOPPERS ($40M+) Eyes an Early Spring Breakout for Disney; Will THE BRIDE! Draw Adult Moviegoers?

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#Hoppers #Disney #Pixar #TheBride #WarnerBros #BoxOffice

1 month ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #Scream7 Posts Series Best $7.8M Previews; Notable #ProjectHailMary and #TheBride Updates; Early Outlooks for #YouMeTuscany

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#BoxOffice

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Paramount and Kevin Williamson’s SCREAM 7 Target Potential Franchise-Best $45-50M+ Debut for the Ghostface Legacy Sequel With the return of fan favorite characters and writer/director Kevin Williamson, Paramount's sequel offers up the first horror tentpole event of 2026.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: Paramount and Kevin Williamson’s SCREAM 7 Target Potential Franchise-Best $45-50M+ Debut for the Ghostface Legacy Sequel

boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

#BoxOffice #Scream7 #Paramount #Ghostface #NeveCampbell #KevinWilliamson

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Universal and Illumination’s THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Likely to Claim 2026’s First $100M+ Domestic Launch Universal and Illumination enjoyed a historic Easter weekend performance three years ago with an incredibly beloved, made-for-everyone animated adaptation. They're about to do it again.

Universal & Illumination's THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Likely to Claim 2026’s First $100M+ Domestic Launch

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#Mario #SuperMario #SuperMarioBros #SuperMarioGalaxyMovie #BoxOffice

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: GOAT Eyes Probable Top Spot After Breakout Debut, But Is I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 Being Underestimated? Following a wild holiday weekend that threw multiple wrenches into projections, a slow release period returns as GOAT's second frame hopes to fend off I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: GOAT Eyes Probable Top Spot After Breakout Debut, But Is I CAN ONLY IMAGINE 2 Being Underestimated?

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#GOAT #ICanOnlyImagine2 #WutheringHeights #BoxOffice

2 months ago 1 1 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SCREAM 7's Early Pre-Sales Slash Franchise Records; WUTHERING HEIGHTS Still on Target for Valentine’s Day Breakout SCREAM 7 is hot in early ticket trends, sending forecasts northward. PROJECT HAIL MARY early access shows go on sale, while WUTHERING HEIGHTS starts strong on Thursday.

#Scream7 Pre-Sales Slash Franchise Records, Possible $40M+ Debut; #WutheringHeights on Target for Valentine’s Breakout ($45M+ 4-Day); #ProjectHailMary Tickets on Sale Now

#BoxOffice

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: WUTHERING HEIGHTS ($47M+ 4-Day), GOAT ($17M+), and CRIME 101 ($11.5M+) to Anchor Valentine’s and Presidents Day Double-Holiday Frame After a few slow weeks to start 2026, theaters can start depending less on holdovers and more on new movies flooding their screens this weekend.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #WutheringHeights ($47M+ 4-Day), #GOAT ($17M+), and #Crime101 ($11.5M+) to Anchor Valentine’s and Presidents Day Double-Holiday Frame

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#BoxOffice

2 months ago 2 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: PROJECT HAIL MARY ($40-45M+) Eyes Career- and Studio-Best Launch for Ryan Gosling and Amazon MGM; How Far Can the Andy Weir Adaptation Go? As WUTHERING HEIGHTS continues to take shape as 2026's first hit tentpole next week, PROJECT HAIL MARY is increasingly poised to deliver a key early spring box office breakout.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #ProjectHailMary ($40-45M+) Eyes Career- and Studio-Best Launch for #RyanGosling and #AmazonMGM How Far Can the Andy Weir Adaptation Go?

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/project-ha...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/project-hail...

#BoxOffice

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: Super Bowl LX Frame May Approach a 37-Year Low as SEND HELP and IRON LUNG Hope to Repeat Amid Counter-Programming Openers Despite several new openers and last week's over-performers offering some holdover presence, this looks to be one of the lowest grossing Super Bowl weekends in nearly four decades.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #SuperBowlLX Frame May Approach a 37-Year Low as #SendHelp and #IronLung Hope to Repeat Amid Counter-Programming Openers

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#Dracula #SoloMio #Strangers #BoxOffice

2 months ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WUTHERING HEIGHTS, GOAT, SCREAM 7 and More Driving February Optimism; SEND HELP ($15M+) and IRON LUNG ($12M+) Strong Out of the Gate Another slow January is coming to a close, but theaters and movie fans have reason to start getting excited for a variety of mid-winter and early spring titles.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #WutheringHeights, #GOAT, #Scream7 and More Driving February Optimism; #SendHelp ($15M+) and #IronLung ($12M+) Strong Out of the Gate

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#BoxOffice

2 months ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: SEND HELP ($12-15M+), IRON LUNG ($6-7M+), MELANIA ($4M+), and SHELTER ($4M+) Aim to Modestly Relieve Some Winter Doldrums Following a devastating winter storm, could Sam Raimi's buzzy dark comedy-survival-thriller help moviegoers cure some cabin fever this weekend?

Box Office Weekend Forecast: SEND HELP ($12-15M+), IRON LUNG ($6-7M+), MELANIA ($4M+), and SHELTER ($4M+) Aim to Modestly Relieve Some Winter Doldrums

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#SendHelp #IronLung #Melania #BoxOffice

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Nate Bargatze’s THE BREADWINNER ($15M+) Could Be an Early 2026 Sleeper Hit; Colleen Hoover’s REMINDERS OF HIM Early Outlook and More Updates Nate Bargatze has dominated the comedy and entertainment worlds in recent years with a far-from-overnight success story. How could his leap to the big screen perform?

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Nate Bargatze's #TheBreadwinner ($15-19M+) Could Be a Sleeper Hit; Colleen Hoover’s #RemindersOfHim Early Outlook and More Updates

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#NateBargatze #BoxOffice

2 months ago 0 1 1 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: MERCY ($8-10M+) Should Dethrone AVATAR; Fathom’s LORD OF THE RINGS Anniversary Continues; NFL and Winter Weather May Be Problematic A new #1 film may actually come to fruition for the first time in over a month, but American football playoffs and a significant winter storm could hold back much of the domestic market.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #Mercy ($8-10M+) Should Dethrone #Avatar ; Fathom’s #LordOfTheRings Anniversary Continues; NFL and Winter Weather May Be Problematic

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#BoxOffice

2 months ago 1 1 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE BRIDE! and HOPPERS ($15-18M+ Each); 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE Trending for $15M 4-Day Start Early outlooks for the first of March's new release crop, plus updated expectations for this weekend's 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE.

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE BRIDE! and HOPPERS ($15-18M+ Each); 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE Trending for $15M 4-Day Start

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#TheBride #Hoppers #28YearsLater #TheBoneTemple #BoxOffice

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE ($20M+ 4-Day) to Dethrone AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH's 5th Frame ($17-19M+), LORD OF THE RINGS Anniversary to Stand Out for MLK Frame This MLK frame will the deliver the box office's first new #1 film since mid-December, while holdovers and a special Lord of the Rings event will serve as positive narratives.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #28YearsLater #TheBoneTemple ($20M+ 4-Day) to Dethrone #Avatar's 5th Frame ($17-19M+), #LordOfTheRings Anniversary to Stand Out for MLK Frame

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#BoxOffice

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WUTHERING HEIGHTS ($50M+) and SCREAM 7 ($28-32M+) to Anchor February and Another Slow Winter Calendar Can WUTHERING HEIGHTS echo some of the previous decade's blockbuster romantic hits for Valentine's? Will SCREAM 7 overcome external discourse and the absence of young stars?

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #WutheringHeights ($50M+) and #Scream7 ($28-32M+) to Anchor February and Another Slow Winter Calendar

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-t...

#BoxOffice #JacobElordi #MargotRobbie #CharliXCX

3 months ago 1 1 0 0
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH to Rule 4th Straight Weekend; GREENLAND 2 and PRIMATE Counter for Post-New Year’s Business Against NFL Playoffs 2026's post-holiday slate may lack major tentpoles in the near future, but (for now) the box office calendar is at least poised for a net-gain compared to the same window last year.

Box Office Weekend Forecast: #AvatarFireAndAsh to Rule 4th Straight Weekend; #Greenland2 and #Primate Counter for Post-New Year’s Business Against NFL Playoffs

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-w...

#BoxOffice

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
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Box Office 4-Day Weekend Forecast: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH to Lead as MARTY SUPREME, ANACONDA, and SONG SUNG BLUE Bow on Crowded Christmas Frame

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-fo...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/box-office-4...

#AvatarFireAndAsh #MartySupreme #Anaconda #BoxOffice

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME and Christmas Week Updates; First Outlooks for SEND HELP and January Release Check-Ins As 2025 winds down, brace for shifting forecasts in the type of crowded market that hasn't appeared during the holiday window for a few years.

6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME and Christmas Week Updates; First Outlooks for SEND HELP and January Release Check-Ins

Newsletter: boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box...

Website: boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-o...

#Anaconda #MartySupreme #SendHelp #BoxOffice

3 months ago 0 0 0 0