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Posts by Pierre-Simon Laplace

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πŸŽ™οΈ New episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics!

EP 155 with @alex-andorra.bsky.social & Andreas Munk, why Bayesian inference still hasn't broken into everyday use. The barrier isn't the math, it's the mental shift

πŸ”— lnkd.in/gchb6bqj

#Bayesian #ProbablisticProgramming

1 week ago 2 1 0 1
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⚽ Last week, I was thrilled and honored to present our #SoccerFactorModel to Field of Play 2026 in Manchester! πŸŽ™οΈ

It was an absolute blast meeting all these brilliant people, and I can't thank enough the FoP team, especially Dominic Jordan and John Carney for their trust and invitation!

🧡 Thread πŸ‘‡

2 weeks ago 3 1 1 0

New episode is out, my dear Bayesians! All about #CausalInference, #Experimentation at scale, and #GaussianProcesses -- definitely a fun one!

3 weeks ago 3 1 0 0
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Bayesian Causal Inference at Scale Thomas Pinder discusses Bayesian causal inference and Gaussian processes. Explore synthetic control and diff-in-diff for industry

New Episode Alert!
πŸŽ™οΈ Scaling #BayesianCausalInference with Thomas Pinder, Netflix & creator of GPJax

Essential listening for anyone working at the frontier of Bayes, Experimentation & Causal Inference πŸ“ˆ
πŸ”— learnbayesstats.com/episode/154-...

#Bayesian #JAX #MachineLearning #CausalInference #GPJax

3 weeks ago 5 1 0 1

New episode is out 🍾

1 month ago 1 1 0 0

The show now has a blog section 🍾
Check out @alex-andorra.bsky.social 's first post!

1 month ago 2 1 0 0

Just published my first open-source #AgentSkill!
It's called bayesian-workflow, and helps you do #BayesianAnaylsis the right way -- well, at least I hope...
Check it out here: github.com/Learning-Bay...

1 month ago 9 2 0 1

Thanks @avehtari.bsky.social ! We just added arviz.diagnose under the hood, thanks to @aloctavodia.bsky.social , to run comprehensive diagnostic checks for MCMC sampling automatically 😏
More to come!!

1 month ago 2 0 0 0

Fundraising = Belief Updating? πŸ§ πŸ“‰

New episode is out! I'm talking with Cherian Koshy about the Neuroscience of Philanthropy.

We discuss:
βœ… Why generosity is hardwired
βœ… Solving the Generosity Gap
βœ… Cognitive friction
βœ… Ethical AI

Check it out: πŸ”— learnbayesstats.com/episode/neur...

1 month ago 3 0 0 1
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GitHub - Learning-Bayesian-Statistics/baygent-skills: A set of skills to call your agent Bayes. Thomas Bayes. A set of skills to call your agent Bayes. Thomas Bayes. - Learning-Bayesian-Statistics/baygent-skills

Install it: github.com/Learning-Bayesian-Statistics/baygent-skills
Part of a bigger project I call baygent-skills -- "a set of skills to call your agent Bayes. Thomas Bayes".
More skills coming soon! Issues and PRs welcome πŸ™
PyMCheers πŸ––

1 month ago 2 0 0 0

Enforces a 9-step workflow: prior elicitation, predictive checks, calibration (LOO-PIT, not vibes), diagnostics, and reporting adapted for non-technical audiences. All the stuff agents skip when left to their own devices.
Lean, opinionated, adapted from the cutting-edge science you hear on the show!

1 month ago 1 0 2 0

Hellooooooo my dear Bayesians! We just open-sourced an #AgentSkill that teaches coding agents to do #Bayesian stats properly.
No more skipped diagnostics, no more point estimates without uncertainty, no more "trace plots look fine".
Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Kimi, Gemini CLI, and more

1 month ago 7 0 1 1
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Episode 152 is out πŸŽ™οΈ
Host @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow.

Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value.

πŸ”— lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc
#Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization

1 month ago 5 1 0 1
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πŸŽ™οΈ New episode out now - Episode 151: Diffusion Models in Python, a Live Demo

In this episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Jonas Arruda to explore how diffusion models can be used for simulation-based inference (SBI) in practice with a live Python demo and more ...

🎧 lnkd.in/gMyAfrW5

2 months ago 3 0 0 0
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Bayesian neural networks need one thing to matter: good uncertainty. Scaling them has always been the hard part

In this episode, host @alex-andorra.bsky.social with Emmanuel Sommer, Jakob Robnik, & David RΓΌgamer explain what’s changing, faster sampling, better dynamics & more ..

🎧 lnkd.in/g2W5cZQZ

2 months ago 4 1 0 0
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Work in tech is changing fast, and not always in obvious ways.

@alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Alana Karen about how AI, hiring, and management are reshaping careers behind the scenes, AI automating early work, hiring favoring familiarity … and more.

🎧 lnkd.in/gcRJVT-s

#FutureOfWork

3 months ago 2 0 0 0
Your All-in-One Creator Storefront Make money from your content. Sell products, host sessions, and grow your business β€” all from a single link.

My #AdvancedRegressionModeling course, written with the brilliant Ravin Kumar and @tomicapretto.bsky.social, is now available through my Topmate profile!
So do give it a try and let me know what you think in the comments πŸ‘‡
See you soon in the Intuitive Bayes' Discourse πŸ––
topmate.io/alex_andorra...

3 months ago 4 2 0 0
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Clinical trials don’t fail because patients fail.
They fail when designs stop learning.

Episode 148 of Learning Bayesian Statistics explores adaptive & platform trials and why "wait for the final analysis" isn’t neutral in ALS or pandemics.

πŸ”— learnbayesstats.com/episode/148-...

#newEpisode #bayes

3 months ago 5 0 0 1
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Fast Bayesian inference is great… until you’re babysitting convergence.

@alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Martin Ingram to explore DADVI a more predictable, less noisy approach to variational inference that makes trade-offs explicit instead of mysterious

🎧 lnkd.in/gAX2iaHz

#bayesianinference

4 months ago 3 0 0 1
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πŸŽ™οΈ How do you tackle extreme physics experiments? Ethan Smith shares insights with @alex-andorra.bsky.social

βœ… Bayesian inference for sparse, noisy data
βœ… Priors guide well-established physical models
βœ… Scaling Bayesian workflows across teams

🎧 lnkd.in/geA2kQm6

#Bayesian #LearningBayesianStats

4 months ago 5 2 0 0
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πŸŽ™οΈ What does it take to grow in tech? Jordan Thibodeau shares lessons from years inside top tech cultures with @alex-andorra.bsky.social

βœ… Bayesian thinking as a practical advantage

βœ… AI amplifies skill, not replaces it

βœ… Networking & sharing knowledge matter

🎧 lnkd.in/ghk6D6nH

#bayes #career

5 months ago 4 1 0 1

Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)

5 months ago 55 51 2 2
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Bayesian deep learning helps ML models understand their uncertainty

In this episode @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Maurizio Filippone about Gaussian Processes, scalable inference, MCMC, and Bayesian deep learning at scale

🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/144-...

#BayesianStats #AI #ML #Bayes

5 months ago 6 1 0 1
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🍽️ Can better nutrition science come from better statistics?

In the latest episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Christoph Bamberg about using a Bayesian mindset to make psychology & nutrition research more transparent and actionable

🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/143-...

#bayes #nutrition

6 months ago 5 1 0 0

How to run #BART and #TreeModels fast in #Python -- new episode is out, with @gstechschulte.bsky.social !

6 months ago 2 1 1 0
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πŸ€”How do you keep Bayesian rigor when the data’s too big to behave?

@gstechschulte.bsky.social joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social on Learning Bayesian Statistics to talk BART and how they’re bridging classic stats with modern, large-scale systems.

🎧 Listen here: learnbayesstats.com/episode/142-...

6 months ago 4 0 0 1
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πŸ§ͺ Causal inference is about understanding why things happen, not just what

@alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Sam Witty about ChiRho & how probabilistic programming is reshaping interventions, counterfactuals, and the future of causal reasoning

🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/141-...

#newepisode

7 months ago 6 0 0 1
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🏈 NFL meets Bayesian stats!

In this episode @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Ron Yurko on

πŸ‘‰ Writing your own models
πŸ‘‰ Building a sports analytics portfolio
πŸ‘‰ Pitfalls of modelling expectations
πŸ‘‰ Using tracking data for player insights
πŸ‘‰ Causal thinking in football data

🎧 lnkd.in/gWz4v2JG

7 months ago 4 3 0 1
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What if your optimization algorithm could explain its uncertainty as clearly as its results?” πŸ€”

In this episodeπŸŽ™οΈ @alex-andorra.bsky.social dives into Bayesian optimization, BoTorch, and why uncertainty matters with Maximilian Balandat

🎧 Listen here: lnkd.in/gg6fcfFU

#bayesian #pytorch #podcast

7 months ago 4 0 0 1
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Your deep learning model might be confidently wrong β€” and in medicine or epidemiology, that’s dangerous.

In this episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with MΓ©lodie Monod, FranΓ§ois-Xavier & Yingzhen Li about making neural nets more reliable, Bayesian LLMs & more

🎧 lnkd.in/gcaRQXcb

#bayes #llm

8 months ago 6 2 0 1