A new chapter in my free online book 😀

"Some more extensions to the logit quantal response equilibrium model"

#TeachEcon #Bayes #EconSky

jamesblandecon.github.io/StructuralBa...

Confounded dose-response effects of treatment adherence: fitting Bayesian instrumental variable models using brms Something that never ceases to amaze (depress) me, is how extremely common it is to see causal claims in RCTs, that are not part of the randomization. For…

#statstab #515 Confounded dose-response effects of treatment adherence: fitting Bayesian instrumental variable models using brms

Thoughts: A nice tutorial on how to think about confounding, Simulating data, and making inferences

#brms #bayes #IV #guide

rpsychologist.com/adherence-an...

A puzzle of proportions: Two popular Bayesian tests can yield dramatically different conclusions Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains, it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of ...

#statstab #514 A puzzle of proportions

Thoughts: "Two popular Bayesian tests can yield dramatically different conclusions"
Model specification is important.

#bayesian #bayes #bayesfactor #nulleffects #proportions

doi.org/10.1002/sim....

Explore every hitter's EB/PA, posteriors, projections, and more:

dtw-str.streamlit.app/Hitter_Profile

Data for models: MLB Statcast

#MLB #Statcast #Bayes

I’m in a Markov chain rabbit hole. Send help. #bayes

Today I learned that there is such a thing as a Bayesian bicep curl. No apparent relation to anything #Bayes or #statistics. Missed opportunity to create Bayesian glute bridges; after all, the whole point is to update your posterior.

Bayesian Ensembling: Insights from Online Optimization and Empirical Bayes

Daniel Waxman, Fernando Llorente, Petar Djuric

Action editor: Roman Garnett

https://openreview.net/forum?id=CCvVzmfBOn

#ensembles #ensemble #bayes

Dr. Frank Harrell and Dr. C. Michael Gibson talk about the FDA’s new draft guidance on using Bayesian methods in clinical trials—and it could be a game changer. – Clinical Trial Results

Thrilled to be interviewed by imminent cardiologist and clinical trials Mike Gibson yesterday about the new draft Bayesian guidance at FDA: clinicaltrialresults.org/dr-frank-har... #Statistics #StatsSky #bayes #pharma

Any good resources for visualising the posterior interval of, e.g., a propensity for treatment model? If you get 10k draws per patient and have thousands of patients, it could be useful to show individual prediction intervals in a clean format. Pinging @andrew.heiss.phd
#rstats #bayes #statsky

#Bayes #stats @mc-stan.org folks,
is this a great idea? Or a terrible idea?

@philippmusfeld.bsky.social , @joschadutli.bsky.social, @koberauer.bsky.social and I wrote up the result of three years of in lab discussions on setting priors in GLMs.

Hope some of you find the proposed workflow and our recommendations helpful!

#bayes #glm #brms #rstats

Think more #rationally with #BayesRule

In his explanation of #Bayes' theorem, #cognitive #psychologist #StevenPinker highlights how this type of #reasoning can help us determine the degree of #belief we assign to a #claim based on available #evidence.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vHK...

🖤💙 How nice! The International Labour Organization provided the recording of my yesterday's seminar on my new forecasting system for labour market outcomes and my R package bpvars I developed for them! 🤍

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef3e...

#forecast #labourmarkets #Bayes #VAR #rstats #bpvars #econsky

Original post on hachyderm.io

My friend Jay Wren recommended a book yesterday at lunch:

"Thinking, Fast and Slow"
by Daniel Kahneman

www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Danie...

A recommendation from Jay is an insta-buy. I got it as an audio-book (because of my commute).

It is not **at all** what I was […]

Teaching LLMs to reason like Bayesians No description available.

Teaching LLMs to reason like Bayesians In a breakthrough for generative AI, researchers are training large language models (LLMs) to adopt Bayesian reasoning techniques, enhancing their ability to make informed inferences and... @cosmicmeta.ai #Bayes

https://u2m.io/lqXm3dvl

Bonus points if people have recs for how to fit #Bayes to this dummy data in a way that doesn't take eons to compile and sample, so you can check priors and finalise analysis before passing it the real stuff.

GitHub - VisruthSK/stanflow: R Package for a Mildly Opinionated Stan Bayesian Workflow R Package for a Mildly Opinionated Stan Bayesian Workflow - VisruthSK/stanflow

First release of stanflow! v0.1.0 was a few days later than I'd like, but its up now.

Stanflow is a metapackage a la tidyverse for a Stan Bayesian workflow--see the README for more details/features!

Feedback/issues/PRs are always appreciated.

#rstats #bayes

I know that I've only been a practicing statistician for 5 decades, but I have yet to come across an example where a frequentist analysis was a better choice than a Bayesian one. #Statistics #StatsSky #Bayes

I'm convinced understanding Geometric #Algebra requires unlearning almost *everything* from years of Linear Algebra exposure.

My brain is actively rejecting GA - especially in applications.

This transition in thinking frameworks is worse that when I gave up Frequentism for the church of #bayes.

The FDA Commissioner advocating for Bayesian design and analysis is a thrill to see. www.fda.gov/news-events/... #StatsSky #Statistics #bayes #clinicaltrial #pharma #rct @fda.gov

FDA drugs and biologics guidance for Bayesian clinical trials is something I've been dreaming of for decades. I am thrilled that this draft has been released!! #Statistics #StatsSky #fda #clinicaltrial #bayes

🎉 Now also published in @pubs.acs.org #Photonics ⏩ pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/... #MINFLUX #microscopy #Bayes

Clinical trials don’t fail because patients fail.
They fail when designs stop learning.

Episode 148 of Learning Bayesian Statistics explores adaptive & platform trials and why "wait for the final analysis" isn’t neutral in ALS or pandemics.

🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/148-...

#newEpisode #bayes

#straythoughts #bayes #Bayesian

If a thing can be destroyed by Bayesian algorithms, it should be destroyed by Bayesian algorithms.

The free open source programming language #Stan helps me to make sense of data and to quantify uncertainty. The next annual Stan conference (in Uppsala, Sweden) is now open for registration and abstract submissions. #bayes bayes.club/@mcmc_stan/1...

Keynote 1: @emtiyaz.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy about his personal breakthroughs at #EurIPS
#Bayes #sustainableAI #ML

#DTS
Buses can beat cars in Yangzhou when trips hit 15-30 min—Naive Bayes says upgrade fleets.🚌🔍
Details: www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/dts...
#naivebayes #bayes #vehicledesign

#r #bayes Q: is there a way to easy plot a contrast density using just the {easystats} package library? I just want a simple stats_halfeye() plot from estimate_contrasts() 🤷‍♂️

Here is the recording of my talk

PyData Berlin 2025: Introduction to Stochastic Variational Inference with NumPyro

Notebook: juanitorduz.github.io/intro_svi/

youtu.be/wG0no-mUMf0?...

#pydata #berlin #bayes

#statstab #465 How to embrace variation and accept
uncertainty in linguistic and
psycholinguistic data analysis

Thoughts: An accessible paper on communicating your results with nuance.

#bayes #bayesian #uncertainty #error #bias #guide #tutorial

sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/resea...