Maxwell's daemon, the Turing machine, and Jaynes' robot A review of Jaynes' posthumous book "Probability Theory--The Logic of Science." I use scientific and personality elements gathered from other papers by Jaynes to help throw light on the origins of Jay...

Tommaso Toffoli
Maxwell's daemon, the Turing machine, and Jaynes' robot
2004

#bookreview #logic #science #probability #probabilitytheory #bayesian #inference #reasoning #maxent #philosophy #updateyourpriors

Enhanced Bayesian Spline Regression Approach for Modelling Trends in Infections Caused by Pathogens Commonly Transmitted Through Food This study presents an enhanced Bayesian model that addresses key challenges by treating year as a continuous variable, incorporating an interaction between year and site, and applying splines to more...

This study shows an advanced #Bayesian model that accounts for site-specific trends & applies splines to capture non-linear trends, offering a more precise & flexible framework for #LongitudinalAnalysis that strengthens inference & illuminates #TemporalDynamics.

#OpenAccess: tinyurl.com/2b7nfqna

A puzzle of proportions: Two popular Bayesian tests can yield dramatically different conclusions Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains, it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of ...

#statstab #514 A puzzle of proportions

Thoughts: "Two popular Bayesian tests can yield dramatically different conclusions"
Model specification is important.

#bayesian #bayes #bayesfactor #nulleffects #proportions

doi.org/10.1002/sim....

Bayesian Causal Inference at Scale Thomas Pinder discusses Bayesian causal inference and Gaussian processes. Explore synthetic control and diff-in-diff for industry

New Episode Alert!
🎙️ Scaling #BayesianCausalInference with Thomas Pinder, Netflix & creator of GPJax

Essential listening for anyone working at the frontier of Bayes, Experimentation & Causal Inference 📈
🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/154-...

#Bayesian #JAX #MachineLearning #CausalInference #GPJax

ABC - Always Be Coding

#Bayesian #Anthropology

Original post on hachyderm.io

"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan […]

Original post on webpronews.com

The Universe Doesn’t Care About Our Spreadsheets: Why the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Is Stuck in a Statistical Fog A new book applies Bayesian statistics to the search for extraterr...

#SpaceRevolution #Astrobiology #Bayesian #statistics #Drake […]

[Original post on webpronews.com]

Is it "Data Science" if the most critical step—the generative model—relies on intuition and domain feel? Or are we just high-tech artists painting with numbers? 🖌️

What do you think? Is the "Art" of modeling being overlooked?

#DataScience #Bioinformatics #Bayesian #Modeling #CompBio [5/5]

Effective sample size | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

#statstab #509 Effective sample size

Thoughts: ESS often reported for bayesian models, but is it really understood?

#brms #rstats #r #bayesian #ess #diagnostics

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/27/e...

Enterprise hits and misses - Bayesian uncertainty makes for better AI, tokenomics gets demystified, and Meta's AI Avocado isn't ripe yet This week - Oracle earnings punch back on the SaaS-is-dead narrative, but Adobe's CEO departure shows that market upheaval isn't to trifle with. Can Bayesian AI change industries like healthcare? Meta...

Enterprise hits and misses - #Bayesian uncertainty makes for better #AI, tokenomics gets demystified, and #Meta's AI Avocado isn't ripe yet diginomica.com/enterprise-h... by @jon.diginomica.com. #EnSW

We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics

Objective Bayesian Analysis | Online Seminar | Statistical Horizons This online Distinguished Speaker course by James Berger, Ph.D., examines the conflict between Objective Bayesian Analysis and Classical Statistics.

On April 14, Distinguished Speaker James Berger explores the history of objective #Bayesian and classical statistics, the p-value controversy, and multiplicity in “Objective Bayesian Analysis: History and Interfaces with Classical Statistics.”

Measurement as Signal Propagation on Communication Bundles The goal of this note is to describe a general framework for modeling measurement across a range of contexts. Applications include both physical systems and distributed inference paradigms.

#inference #bayesian #bundle #physics #topology #communication #mathematics

Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Models

Stefania Scheurer, Philipp Reiser, Tim Brünnette et al.

Action editor: Manuel Haussmann

https://openreview.net/forum?id=aVSoQXbfy1

#surrogate #bayesian #mcmc

From uncertainty to insight. EcoTwin shows how Bayesian networks can support both probabilistic and causal analysis in marine systems.

ecotwinproject.eu/post/bayesia...

#EcoTwin #Bayesian #OceanPolicy #EBFM #HorizonEurope

#MissKitty #BayesianBitch her newest #hashtag! 😹😹😹
She is getting her #Bayesian on‼️
It's actually how I think. I live in ambiguity. Is there anything else? 😹😹😹👊🏻🔦🎤💃🏻
Bayesian methodology is a statistical approach that uses Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as

New research proposes debugging #Bayesian inference while it runs, not after. A methodology for live MCMC diagnostics: R-hat, ESS, and trace plots updating in real time instead of post-hoc.

Join our webinar on Mar 25, 11 AM ET.
👉 dub.link/Bwr7kT3

#PyMC #MCMC #DataScience

Bayesian statistics is not named after Joan Baez.

#mathematics #statistics #bayesian #joanbaez

Enhanced Bayesian Spline Regression Approach for Modelling Trends in Infections Caused by Pathogens Commonly Transmitted Through Food This study presents an enhanced Bayesian model that addresses key challenges by treating year as a continuous variable, incorporating an interaction between year and site, and applying splines to more...

This study introduces an enhanced #Bayesian FoodNet model effectively reducing biases, accounting for site-specific trends, & capturing uncertainty & by publishing a pipeline for implementation, FoodNet data become accessible for #PublicHealth.

#OpenAccess: zoonoses-journal.org/index.php/20...

In #G3journal, Cappa et al. explored genomic relationship patterns among complex traits related to productivity, defense, and climate adaptability in interior lodgepole pine using #Bayesian networks and structural equation models. buff.ly/74P0mNo

Original post on fediscience.org

Interested in how to study #SocialTransmission in a #Bayesian framework? Here is a paper for you in #MethodsInEcologyAndEvolution @MethodsEcolEvol:

#STbayes: An #R package for creating, fitting and understanding Bayesian models of social transmission […]

Hellooooooo my dear Bayesians! We just open-sourced an #AgentSkill that teaches coding agents to do #Bayesian stats properly.
No more skipped diagnostics, no more point estimates without uncertainty, no more "trace plots look fine".
Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Kimi, Gemini CLI, and more

I am tuning a simulated servo in MuJoCo by fitting it to data collected from the real thing (D=5). I tried Bayesian Optimization via Python's bayesopt (and bayes-optim) and it completely failed! On the other hand, SciPy's differential evolution worked great!

#Bayesian #Optimization #robotics #scipy

Episode 152 is out 🎙️
Host @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow.

Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value.

🔗 lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc
#Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization

Determination of Uncertainty Model of a Particle-Reflection-Distribution
www.mdpi.com/2673-9984/12...

By Roland Preuss and Udo von Toussaint
From the 43rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering

#PlasmaPhysics #Bayesian

Very fun thread! #Bayesian #statsky

Original post on social.itu.dk

I have spent some time cleaning up my home-grown #Bayesian inference library for public consumption. Enjoy:
https://codeberg.org/wasowski/probula

The story goes that I needed a pure Scala3 replacement for #Figaro, that I can use for teaching purposes. The status is:
- can handle regression […]

There book cover and title “Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World” by Tom Chivers is reviewed by a user named Brian with five stars with the following comment: There's a stereotype of computer users: Mac users are creative and cool, while PC users are businesslike and unimaginative. Less well-known is that the world of statistics has an equivalent division. Bayesians are the Mac users of the stats world, where frequentists are the PC people. This book sets out to show why Bayesians are not just cool, but also mostly right.

Interesting review of the book “Everything is Predictable“

#Bayesian

Couldn't hold myself, had to fit a #Bayesian cumulative ordinal model to this interesting data:

Canadian intensivists and nephrologists don't seem to disagree much!

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

#statstab #486 Testing Bayesian Informative Hypotheses in Five Steps With JASP and R {bain}

Thoughts: The BAIN module let's you go beyond "effect vs no effect" by specifying contrasts (hyp) & obtaining fractional BFs.

#bain #jasp #bayesfactor #bayesian #rstats #r

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