The call for papers for the Annual MMF conference (8-10 September 2025, University of Reading) is now open.
Submissions in monetary economics, macroeconomics and financial economics are more than welcome!
More details at www.mmf.ac.uk/conference/2...
Looking for other economists on Bluesky? If they have added their Bluesky handle to their RePEc profile, they are listed here, including by field, country and more:
ideas.repec.org/i/ebluesky.h...
#RePEc #EconSky
🚀 My latest working paper discusses three key themes highlighted in the Bernanke Review alongside a formal evaluation of the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts📈
👉 arxiv.org/pdf/2501.07386
#Forecasting #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #BankofEngland #BernankeReview
📢My latest publication, "Testing for Equal Predictive Accuracy with Strong Dependence", explores the limits of the Diebold-Mariano test in the presence of autocorrelation in the loss differential.
👉ttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.11.003
#Forecasting #Econometrics #Research
4/ My two cents:
1️⃣ #EconomicForecasting is challenging.
2️⃣ Forecast evaluation is crucial for identifying areas for improvement.
3️⃣ Model-consistent forecasts of the policy path are preferable to inconsistent assumptions based on market expectations.
3/ Gertjan Vlieghe (Millenium):
1️⃣ Recent forecast errors stemmed from large shocks, not model failures.
2️⃣ Clear central bank communication is vital for #MonetaryPolicy.
3️⃣Scenarios must be carefully selected and paired with suitable conditioning policy paths.
2/ Petra Geraats (Cambridge):
1️⃣ BoE should publish a Forecast Evaluation Report (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Fan charts effectively convey uncertainty.
3️⃣ Market expectations of the policy path are inconsistent with alternative scenarios.
1/ Charlie Bean (LSE):
1️⃣ BoE should adopt a formal and open forecast evaluation process (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Market expectations are the best conditioning assumption for policy paths.
3️⃣ Keep fan charts—they complement scenario analysis, not replace it.
Charlie Bean presenting
Fascinating session at the Bank of England Watchers' Conference 2024 yesterday on reactions to the #BernankeReview chaired by @chrisgiles.bsky.social
Key takeaways from Charlie Bean (LSE), Petra Geraats (Cambridge), and Gertjan Vlieghe (Millenium):
#CentralBanking #BernankeReview
🧵
Join us for the 12th Bundesbank term structure workshop, November 10, covering great research on macro-finance, the yield curve and inflation markets. @lcoroneo.bsky.social
Online registration: www.bundesbank.de/de/bundesban...