BasisPointInsight.com - Calm Policy, Stormy Skies by Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal A prolonged pause is expected through 2026-27, but the bias has shifted. What once hinted at easing now suggests the next move is more likely a hike than a cut. by Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal, BasisPointInsight.com

2/3 With inflation risks rising, growth slowing, and the rupee emerging as a near-term policy anchor, the RBI is navigating a far more complex trade-off than the headline suggests.

🔹Are markets underestimating the shift from easing bias to tightening risk?

#RBI #CentralBanking

1/6 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐁𝐈’𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐏𝐥𝐨𝐭 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐎𝐛𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐒𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭
By Phynix

Do you ever fall into those YouTube rabbit holes where someone dissects a film frame by frame and suddenly what felt straightforward becomes impossibly intricate?

#RBI #CentralBanking

BasisPointInsight.com - Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock by Gaura Sen Gupta With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs. by Gaura Sen G...

3/3 The RBI is instead signalling flexibility—holding rates, ensuring ample liquidity, and buying time as the trajectory of oil, food and external pressures becomes clearer.

Read 𝐆𝐚𝐮𝐫𝐚 𝐒𝐞𝐧 𝐆𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐚’s column for BasisPoint👇

#CentralBanking #MacroEconomics

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI MPC Dials Down Market Anxiety; Retains Policy Flexibility by Upasna Bhardwaj Even as war disruptions may have peaked, uncertainty on supply shocks and their second-round impact remains high, making any knee-jerk policy action potentially counterproductive. by Upasna Bhardwaj, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 With supply shocks still uncertain and second-round effects unclear, the RBI appears more wary of growth risks than headline inflation, even as it keeps a close watch on the rupee and external vulnerabilities.

Read 𝐔𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐧𝐚 𝐁𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐣’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#CentralBanking #MacroStability

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI Stays on Hold, but Signals Flexibility in a Shifting Risk Landscape by Aastha Gudwani A ceasefire eased the backdrop, but RBI’s message was clear: policy stays flexible, FX steps are temporary, and risks to growth and inflation remain live. by Aastha Gudwani, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 In a world of supply shocks and shifting narratives, policy is no longer about direction, but about optionality.

Read 𝐀𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐡𝐚 𝐆𝐮𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐢’s column for BasisPoint: 𝐑𝐁𝐈 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐅𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐞👇

#CentralBanking #PolicyFlexibility #MacroStability

BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Optimism Sits Uneasily with Its Own Risk Diagnosis by Dhananjay Sinha The central bank has identified how supply shocks will hit demand, yet its growth and inflation projections do not fully reflect that reality by Dhananjay Sinha, BasisPointInsight.com

1/2 RBI’s latest policy reads like a risk manual, not a growth roadmap. It clearly lays out how oil shocks and geopolitical stress can squeeze demand through the external account, financial conditions and corporate balance sheets.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #PolicySignals #CentralBanking #MacroStability

BasisPointInsight.com - Taking Stock of the Rupee in an Uncertain World by Michael Debabrata Patra As the RBI enables a calibrated real depreciation of the rupee, it is signalling readiness to deploy instruments across markets to preserve stability. by Michael Debabrata Patra, BasisPointInsight.com

15/15
Read the full piece: Taking Stock of the Rupee in an Uncertain World 👇

#Rupee #RBI #FX #Macro #EmergingMarkets #CentralBanking

BasisPointInsight.com - When the Culture Turns: Supervising the Risks That Hide in Plain Sight  by Rabi N. Mishra Culture shapes how risk is lived, not just managed. Supervisors who ignore it miss the deepest root cause of institutional failure and misconduct. by Rabi N. Mishra, BasisPointInsight.com

3/4 If misconduct and failure are often rooted in behaviour, not balance sheets, why is culture still treated as secondary in supervision? Are regulators listening closely enough to what is said in the middle and what is left unsaid at the bottom?

#ConductRisk #CentralBanking

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BasisPointInsight.com - Quo Vadis the IMF? by Michael Debabrata Patra This essay questions whether the IMF’s evolving surveillance and labelling practices now undermine exchange-rate stability instead of safeguarding it. by Michael Debabrata Patra, BasisPointInsight.com

3/5 Repeated re-labelling of the rupee’s regime risks signalling fragility where policy has aimed for orderliness. In markets driven increasingly by capital flows and positioning, such labels can act as cues rather than descriptions, shaping behaviour at the margin.

#CentralBanking #MonetaryPolicy

BasisPointInsight.com - Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy by R. Gurumurthy Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see...

2/3 If borrowing is what markets are pricing, not deficit ratios, then reducing supply may matter more than signalling restraint. A calibrated use of RBI buffers, paired with tax relief and lower borrowing, could ease financial conditions without abandoning discipline.

#FiscalPolicy #CentralBanking

BasisPointInsight.com - A Proposal for Strengthening the RBI’s Market Operations by Michael Debabrata Patra To keep the rupee stable in a volatile world, the RBI may need $1 trillion in reserves and smarter deployment of global dollar liquidity tools. by Michael Debabrata Patra, BasisPointInsight.com

3/7 Among the key suggestions in the article:

🔹𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 $1 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 to cover short-term external obligations and potential portfolio outflows.

#CentralBanking

Historical Photos The Federal Reserve System was created on December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law. The system is composed of a central, independent governmental agency...

Join us in honoring the contributions of Chairman Greenspan to the Federal Reserve System and the nation's economic stability. (3/3)
#FedHistory #Greenspan100 #CentralBanking

www.flickr.com/photos/feder...

Should Central Banks Hold Bitcoin Reserves? Kenneth Rogoff considers the bullish and bearish case for cryptocurrencies as a potential store of value.

Should central banks embrace Bitcoin as a reserve asset despite its volatility? Let's discuss the future of currency! #CentralBanking

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-case-for-...

From Lehman’s collapse to the 2013 taper tantrum, former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao recounts how India’s central bank managed crisis, currency pressure and market panic.

A first-hand account on Market Makers with Manoj Rane.

Watch Part 1 of the interview now 👇

#CentralBanking #CrisisManagement

RobinReach

WARNING: The Central Bank Trap Is Now Permanent. Gear up to navigate what this means for savers and investors. Watch now and chart your next move. 🚨🧭
https://youtu.be/uvqcusdphkI?si=u_s_e8Zo8iaQhd1r
#CentralBanking #Economy #Markets #Finance

📍 FED ANNOUNCES NO CHANGE TO INTEREST RATES
The Federal Reserve just held the line — no rate move today.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicStability #MarketSentiment #CPI #Payrolls #Equities #RiskAssets #CentralBanking #CryptoMarket

BasisPointInsight.com - Gold Fantasies vs. Financial Reality: The Reserve Narrative That Doesn’t Add Up by R. Gurumurthy Claims of gold reclaiming a 1970s-style dominance in global reserves ignore today’s monetary reality, supply constraints, and the operational limits that keep hard currencies at the system’s core. by ...

Social media is buzzing with claims that gold will “mean revert” to 60–70% of global reserves, just like the 1970s, as the dollar supposedly fades.

Sounds compelling. The math doesn’t agree.

Read R Gurumurthy’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#Gold #CentralBanking #GlobalMacro

BasisPointInsight.com - The Turkey Illusion by V Thiagarajan The illusion of rupee stability in 2024 hid rising risks, as intervention suppressed price signals until volatility returned with force by V Thiagarajan, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 Read V Thiagarajan’s column for BasisPoint: The Turkey Illusion

#Rupee #FXMarkets #CentralBanking #Volatility #IndiaMacro

BasisPointInsight.com - Regulation for a No-Pause Financial System in a Fast-Moving Economy by Anupam Sonal India’s financial system cannot be governed by rear-view regulation. The RBI must move from rule-making to system design, balancing stability, innovation and trust. by Anupam Sonal, BasisPointInsight....

2/3 Recent moves toward outcomes-based regulation, forward-looking risk frameworks and calibrated liberalisation suggest a deeper redesign is underway.

#FinancialRegulation #CentralBanking #RiskGovernance

I would welcome feedback and conversations with scholars and practitioners working on CBDCs, payment infrastructures, and monetary/financial statecraft.

#CBDC #DigitalPayments #MonetaryStatecraft #FinancialInfrastructure #CentralBanking #SmallStates #PoliticalEconomy

BasisPointInsight.com - Stablecoins, CBDCs, and the RBI’s Selective Logic by R. Gurumurthy In a world where money is becoming a networked technology, caution without engagement may itself become a source of vulnerability. by R. Gurumurthy, BasisPointInsight.com

2/3 But in a world where money is becoming programmable, networked, and borderless, outright rejection may prove riskier than conditional engagement.

#MonetarySovereignty #CentralBanking #FinancialGovernance #RBI #SystemicRisk

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BasisPointInsight.com - Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction by R. Gurumurthy Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins. b...

1/2 Sanjay Malhotra’s first year at the RBI has been a study in bold experimentation—front-loaded rate cuts, freer regulatory levers, and a governance philosophy that urges boards to think and act for themselves. But it has also exposed the friction between autonomy and oversight.

#CentralBanking

Rewriting the Federal Reserve’s Mandate: From Failed Dual Goals to Human Flourishing Why the Fed’s “Dual Mandate” No Longer Serves the People

Rewriting the Federal Reserve’s Mandate: From Failed Dual Goals to Human Flourishing medium.com/@duke.t.jame... #EconSky #Economy #Money #Banking #Finance #FederalReserve #CentralBanking