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BasisPointInsight.com - West Asia Shock Tests RBI’s Growth-First Playbook by Gaura Sen Gupta A dual oil supply and price shock may lift inflation and strain growth, forcing the RBI to rely on liquidity and signalling to keep conditions supportive. by Gaura Sen Gupta, BasisPointInsight.com

1/3 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐡 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞?

The current West Asia crisis sits uncomfortably between the Russia-Ukraine spike and the Covid supply shock, raising inflation risks even as growth faces disruption.

#IndiaMacro #RBIWatch #OilShock

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BasisPointInsight.com - Can Public Spending Finally Crowd In Private Capex? by Sharmila Kantha After years of public capex leading growth, tentative signs of private investment revival emerge. But capacity use, demand trends and sector skew keep the cycle uncertain. by Sharmila Kantha, BasisPoi...

4/5 The real question is whether demand will rise enough to justify large new capacity creation. Until utilisation moves decisively above critical thresholds, public spending is likely to remain the primary engine of growth. Crowding-in is possible. But it is not automatic.

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives  by Barendra Kumar Bhoi Revised weights, softer underlying inflation and corridor liquidity dynamics suggest room for calibrated action in April, subject to incoming data. by Barendra Kumar Bhoi, BasisPointInsight.com

4/4 Read Barendra Kumar Bhoi’s column for BasisPoint: New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives 👇

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - India’s Next Growth Phase Needs Regulatory Courage by Anupam Sonal With banks strong and inflation anchored, India’s risk is not fragility but comfort. Governing success will demand pre-emptive discipline. by Anupam Sonal, BasisPointInsight.com

4/4 Governing prosperity demands anticipatory discipline, not reactive repair. India’s ascent will depend less on how fast it grows — and more on how prudently it manages success.

Read Anupam Sonal’s column for BasisPoint: India’s Next Growth Phase Needs Regulatory Courage 👇

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market? by R. Gurumurthy RBI’s TRS framework promises synthetic liquidity in corporate bonds, but without deeper cash markets, derivatives may amplify fragility, not depth. by R. Gurumurthy, BasisPointInsight.com

4/4 Derivatives amplify markets; they do not create them.

Read R. Gurumurthy’s column for BasisPoint: Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market? 👇

#FinancialPlumbing #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Bond Market-Making Needs Capital, Not Just Mandates by R. Gurumurthy India wants market makers to revive corporate bond trading. Even gilts never got meaningful liquidity from mandates. Without risk capital, market-making will remain rhetoric. by R. Gurumurthy, BasisPo...

5/6 🔹Modern market making is procyclical by design

🔹Without repo depth, hedging tools, and credible backstops, quotes will evaporate in stress

Liquidity is not a UI feature. It is a funding commitment.

#CapitalMarkets #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - We Don’t Need No Data-Centre Coddling by TK Arun Data-centre tax holidays represent oodles of government cash to favoured Indian businesses for little public benefit by TK Arun, BasisPointInsight.com

4/4 Are we prioritising real digital sovereignty, or just playing host, with little control over the data or technology that matters?

Read TK Arun’s column for BasisPoint: We Don’t Need No Data-Centre Coddling 👇

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Who Gets to Decide What Healthcare You Deserve? by R. Gurumurthy As insurers push clinical protocols and hospitals resist rigid pathways, India faces a deeper struggle over who defines medical necessity in a financialised healthcare system. by R. Gurumurthy, BasisP...

4/4 Read R Gurumurthy’s column for BasisPoint:
Who Gets to Decide What Healthcare You Deserve?

#MedicalGovernance #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - The Governance Shift in India’s Buyback Tax by Chandrika Soyantar How new rates split the monolithic shareholder block into control and portfolio shareholders, reshaping corporate governance by Chandrika Soyantar, BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 While it may introduce efficiency costs, it sets the foundation for cleaner corporate exits and aligns buyback incentives with shareholder structure.

Read Chandrika Soyantar’s column for BasisPoint: The Governance Shift in India’s Buyback Tax 👇

#CapitalMarkets #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter by Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand. by Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal, B...

3/3 Read the full analysis by Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal: Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

#PolicyTransmission #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Building Boxes in a Storm by Sharmila Chavaly A Countercyclical Manufacturing Gambit: India bets ₹100 billion on container production amid global trade flux, eyeing niche value and logistics leverage over volume dominance. by Sharmila Chavaly, Ba...

4/4 Read Sharmila Chavaly’s analysis: Building Boxes in a Storm

#Manufacturing #GlobalTrade #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Time to Take a SIP of Deposits by Prakash Balakrishnan & Ganga Narayan Rath As household savings shift to equities, Indian banks face a silent funding squeeze. Reimagining deposits through SIP-style CDs could restore stability. by Prakash Balakrishnan & Ganga Narayan Rath, Ba...

3/3 It's not just about fixing liquidity gaps; it's about preserving choice, stability, and diversity in India’s banking ecosystem.

Read why now is the moment to act — before the funding stress becomes systemic. 👇

#HouseholdSavings #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s First Step Timely, But Guardrails Needed to Prevent Gaming of Fraud by Srinath Sridharan Small-value digital frauds are individually minor, but collectively corrosive to larger public trust. The RBI’s proposed compensation framework is timely, but it must be designed to deter fraud, not b...

2/2 Read Srinath Sridharan’s column for BasisPoint:
RBI’s First Step Timely, But Guardrails Needed to Prevent Gaming of Fraud

@ssmumbai.bsky.social

#MPC #RBIPolicy #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus by Shailendra Jhingan RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage. by Shailendra Jhingan, BasisPointInsight.com

5/5 In this piece for BasisPoint Insight, Shailendra Jhingan examines why transmission remains constrained, how liquidity operations are shaping market outcomes, and what policy levers may need reconsideration as credit demand rises and deposit growth lags.

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort by Dhananjay Sinha Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete. by Dhananjay Sinha, BasisPointInsight.com

Read Dhananjay Sinha's column for BasisPoint:
RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort 👇

#PolicyCredibility #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Tiger Global and the Conception of Economic Freedom in India by Meghna Bal At its core, the case exposes the State’s failure to balance two competing freedoms: the freedom of the State to tax, and the freedom of an investor to structure its investments in reliance on the rul...

2/2 Read Meghna Bal’s column for BasisPoint: Tiger Global and the Conception of Economic Freedom in India 👇

#EconomicFreedom #RuleOfLaw #TaxCertainty #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - A Quiet Budget Signal That Could Wake India’s Corporate Bond Market by Karan Mehrishi A low-key Budget proposal on total return swaps could transform India’s corporate bond market if regulators align infrastructure, liquidity and risk appetite in time. by Karan Mehrishi, BasisPointInsi...

A low-key Budget proposal on total return swaps could transform India’s corporate bond market if regulators align infrastructure, liquidity and risk appetite in time.

Read Karan Mehrishi’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#Budget2026 #CorporateBonds #DebtMarkets #MarketInfrastructure #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce by Madhavi Arora Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint. by Madhavi Arora, BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 Read Emkay Global Financial Services Chief Economist Madhavi Arora’s column for BasisPoint:
Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce 👇

#MonetaryPolicy #Liquidity #PolicyTransmission #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing by K. Srinivasa Rao RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore by K. Srinivasa Rao, BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 With growth resilient, inflation contained, and liquidity abundant, further easing could backfire—hurting margins, pressuring the rupee, and weakening credit intermediation.

Kembai Srinivasa Rao writes for BasisPoint: RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing 👇

#MonetaryPolicy #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum by Gaura Sen Gupta RBI’s record liquidity infusion in 2025-26 has failed to ease conditions as dollar sales, cash leakage and fiscal hoarding drain surplus. by Gaura Sen Gupta, BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 Why has the RBI’s massive liquidity infusion failed to ease financial conditions—and what does it take to fix it?

Read IDFC First Bank Chief Economist Gaura Sen Gupta’s column for BasisPoint: Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum

#MonetaryPolicy #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Grandfathered, Then Burned: Why the Government Must Lead the Tiger Appeal by TK Arun India promised tax certainty through grandfathering. The Supreme Court's Tiger Global verdict undermines that. It’s the government that must restore credibility. by TK Arun, BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 This isn't just about one fund, it’s about credibility. Investors need clarity, not second-guessing. It’s up to the government to set it right.

Read TK Arun’s column for BasisPoint — Grandfathered, Then Burned: Why the Government Must Lead the Tiger Appeal

#PolicyCredibility #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing by D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals. by D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta, Basis...

3/3 Until the overnight rate is anchored, the yield curve will resist RBI’s signals.

Read D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta’s column for BasisPoint: RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing 👇

#RBI #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - When Monetary Space is Spent Too Early by R. Gurumurthy Markets are reacting less to fiscal arithmetic and more to a policy sequence that has left limited monetary room just as pressures build. by R. Gurumurthy, BasisPointInsight.com

4/4 India is not facing a crisis. Yet markets price coherence as much as intent. Higher yields, currency sensitivity, and fragile confidence are converging at a point when conventional policy ammunition is already partly spent.

Read R Gurumurthy’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Incremental Ambition in an Age Demanding Structural Reset by Arvind Mayaram Budget shows discipline and selective ambition, but sidesteps pricing reform, social protection and the federal reset India needs for resilience. by Arvind Mayaram, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 In an era of permanent volatility, managing arithmetic is no longer enough, what we need is economic statecraft.

Read former Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram’s column for BasisPoint: Incremental Ambition in an Age Demanding Structural Reset 👇

@arvindmayaram.bsky.social

#IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Budget for Industry: Control and Command by Sharmila Kantha From microwave parts to shoe uppers, the Budget signals selective interventionism—favouring item-level tweaks over broad industrial reform. by Sharmila Kantha, BasisPointInsight.com

From microwave parts to shoe uppers, the Budget signals selective interventionism—favouring item-level tweaks over broad industrial reform.

Read Sharmila Kantha’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#Budget2026 #IndustrialPolicy #Manufacturing #PolicyExecution #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Does the Market Reaction Mean the Budget Was a Big Disappointment? by Chokkalingam G Despite a sharp post-Budget market fall, the government stayed fiscally prudent, raised capex targets, and stuck to deficit goals—signals markets may soon reassess. by Chokkalingam G , BasisPointInsig...

Major equity indices fell nearly 2% post Budget presentation on Sunday. The equity market would soon, however, realise fair deliveries of the Budget.

Read Chokkalingam G’s analysis for BasisPoint 👇

#Budget2026 #MarketSentiment #FiscalPrudence #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Self-Interest, Sentiment, and the Fine Print  by Vijay Chauhan STT hike stole headlines, but Budget 2026’s real story lies in quiet reforms, capital focus, and a deeper push for trust-based execution and implementation tracking. by Vijay Chauhan , BasisPointInsig...

2/2 The real test? Implementation. With tools like the Output-Outcome Framework and tracking of past announcements, this Budget shows intent to close the gap between promise and delivery.

Read Vijay Chauhan’s analysis for BasisPoint 👇

#FiscalGovernance #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - A Fiscally Prudent and Reform-Oriented Budget by N R Bhanumurthy A fiscally cautious Union Budget stays the reform course, prioritising capital spending and stability while laying foundations for medium-term growth. by N R Bhanumurthy , BasisPointInsight.com

2/2 Read N R Bhanumurthy’s column for BasisPoint:
A Fiscally Prudent and Reform-Oriented Budget 👇

#FiscalPrudence #CapitalExpenditure #EconomicReforms #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - India’s Deficit Promise Was Kept by Cutting Where It Hurts by Rajesh Mahapatra The Centre met its deficit promise not through revenue strength, but by cutting transfers and development spend, shifting stress to states. by Rajesh Mahapatra, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 Meeting deficit targets is an important milestone. Ensuring that fiscal discipline strengthens, rather than constrains, medium-term growth capacity is the more enduring test.

Read Rajesh Mahapatra’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#FiscalDeficit #StateFinances #PublicFinance #IndiaMacro

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BasisPointInsight.com - Fiscal Federalism, Transfers, and the Case for an Independent Anchor by Arvind Mayaram With discretionary transfers growing and predictability eroding, India’s fiscal federal system needs an independent anchor to restore trust and stability. by Arvind Mayaram, BasisPointInsight.com

3/3 Read former Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram’s column for BasisPoint: Fiscal Federalism, Transfers, and the Case for an Independent Anchor

@arvindmayaram.bsky.social

#PublicFinance #IndiaMacro

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