3/3 Read ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐โs column for BasisPoint: ๐๐3 ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ ๐
๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐
#SupplyChains #IndustrialPolicy
2/3 But will policy easing be enough? Geopolitics, supply-chain dependence, and limited evidence of technology transfer still raise the larger question: can India attract Chinese-linked manufacturing FDI without importing strategic vulnerability?
#Geoeconomics #ChinaIndia
1/3 Indiaโs easing of Press Note 3 may improve the approval pathway for minority Chinese-linked investments, especially where Chinese shareholding is below 10%. On paper, it supports ease of doing business and could reopen conversations around manufacturing capital.
#FDI #IndiaManufacturing
4/4 And as banks grow larger and more interconnected, can market confidence remain insulated from governance ambiguity?
Read Anupam Sonalโs column for BasisPoint: ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐ค ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐
#FinancialRegulation #FinancialStability
3/4 Governance is no longer a procedural layer. It is becoming a frontline supervisory variable.
If early stress now shows up first in board dynamics rather than balance sheets, how should supervisors respond? Should oversight move beyond formal structures to how boards actually function?
#RBI
2/4 Leadership churn at systemically important institutions is less about proven misconduct and more about what it signals on information flow, oversight quality, and the balance between boards and executive management.
#BankSupervision
1/4 In large banks, risk rarely begins with capital ratios. It often begins in the boardroom.
#Banking #GovernanceRisk
4/4 And when the burden falls disproportionately on lower-income households, does this remain a macro issue or become a political one?
Read ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ค๐ก๐๐ซโs column for BasisPoint โ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งโ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ค: ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐, ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐
#MacroEconomics
3/4 If all three drivers are moving together, how much policy room is left? Can inflation still be treated as transitory when supply shocks persist?
#OilPrices #CurrencyRisk
2/4 This is not a series of isolated pressures but a compounding shock that feeds through fuel, food and fertilisers into a broader inflation cycle.
#FoodInflation
1/4 ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ 3๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ?
Crude, crops and currency are aligning into a single inflation story. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil towards $110, farm output faces heat and monsoon risks, and the rupeeโs weakness is amplifying imported costs.
#Inflation #CommodityPrices
4/4 How long can valuations assume mean reversion? And what happens when the adjustment is not abrupt, but a slow, persistent repricing?
Read Dhananjay Sinhaโs column for BasisPoint: Markets Are Mispricing a Structural Geopolitical Regime Shift ๐
#Geoeconomics
3/4 If oil is no longer a spike but a regime, and geopolitics a driver rather than a disruption, are markets mispricing the baseline?
#GlobalMacro #AssetPricing
2/4 Energy, defence spending, and trade fragmentation are resetting the global macro framework, embedding higher inflation, tighter fiscal space, and structurally elevated risk premia.
#RegimeShift
1/4 Markets are still trading the Strait of Hormuz like a headline risk, reacting to escalation and easing with familiar reflexes. But this is not a cyclical shock.
#Geopolitics #MarketMispricing
๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ?
An โacceptedโ weaker rupee + tax drag = lower dollar returns.
Arvind Chari argues this is deterring global flows at a time India should be attracting them.
Policy choice matters.
#Rupee #India #Macro
3/3 If industrial policy is no longer an exception but a pattern, what does that say about past prescriptions? Was the resistance ideological rather than empirical? And what should emerging economies take away from this late recantation?
Read TK Arunโs column for BasisPoint๐
#MacroEconomics
2/3 After decades of cautioning against state-led industrial policy, its recent work acknowledges that targeted intervention has historically shaped growth, innovation, and scaleโfrom East Asia to the United States.
#PublicSpending #EconomicPolicy
1/3 ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐คโ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐ ๐๐จ๐ ๐ฆ๐
The World Bank appears to be rethinking one of its longest-held positions.
#FiscalPolicy #GlobalEconomy #PolicyShift
5/5 The piece raises a more pointed question.
Whether external surveillance, especially when backwards-looking and interpretative, should be allowed to define the narrative around a countryโs currency.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญโ๐ฌ ๐
๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฏ๐.๐
#GlobalMacro #CapitalFlows #RBI
4/5 The deeper tension lies in the IMFโs own stance. Intervention is recognised as legitimate within its framework, yet its application in emerging markets continues to attract scrutiny. That inconsistency complicates policy signalling at a time when central banks need flexibility, not hierarchy.
3/5 Repeated re-labelling of the rupeeโs regime risks signalling fragility where policy has aimed for orderliness. In markets driven increasingly by capital flows and positioning, such labels can act as cues rather than descriptions, shaping behaviour at the margin.
#CentralBanking #MonetaryPolicy
2/5 At the heart of the piece lies a pointed question: whether the shift towards retrospective โde factoโ classification of exchange rate regimes is beginning to undermine the very objective the IMF was designed to protect, exchange-rate stability.
For India, the implications are not academic.
#IMF
1/5 ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
In Part V of his ongoing FX series for BasisPoint Insight, ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ turns a critical lens on the IMFโs evolving approach to exchange-rate oversight.
#BasisPointInsight #FXMarkets #ExchangeRatePolicy #Rupee #CurrencyMarkets
3/3 Because this is no longer just about the rupee. It is about where India chooses to take the pain.
Read ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ๐ก๐ข ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ญ๐โs column for BasisPoint: ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐โ๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ก๐จ๐๐ค๐
#ExchangeRate #MacroRisk #Inflation
2/3 So what should the RBI do?
Lean against volatility or preserve reserves? Allow gradual adjustment or risk overshooting? And most importantly, how much of this shock should the currency absorb versus the balance sheet?
#FXMarkets #OilShock
1/3 In a tariff-driven world, rupee depreciation cushioned competitiveness. In an oil shock, it does the opposite. Every tick lower now raises import costs, widens the current account deficit, and feeds inflation. The same tool that once stabilised is beginning to transmit stress.
#IndianRupee
3/3 And all of this is unfolding against a backdrop of a conflict that was supposed to be brief, but isnโt.
๐
๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ, ๐๐ก๐๐๐ค ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐
#Inflation #Crude
2/3 Markets, meanwhile, seem to be absorbing everything. Oil moves, capital flows shift, and yet the system holds, with optimism doing more work than policy. Then there are deeper mismatches between perception and structure, between headline growth and uneven realities on the ground.
#Growth
1/3 ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐
Revised GDP and CPI suggest weโve been looking at a slightly distorted picture. Even crop estimates and inflation risks may not be telling the full story.
#MiddleEast #Iran