US winter #wheat ratings fell another 4 p.p. to 30%.
I doubt the weekend freeze damage is fully reflected yet. That usually takes at least a few days.
So within 1-2 weeks, ratings could slip further, potentially below the 27% low from 2023.
#wheat #CBOT #oatt #sizovreport
If you follow Cargill, Conagra or CHS or wheat/flour milling, this is interesting from Conagra (44% owner). They go into detail about the importance of trading, i.e. not milling, earnings. Damn speculators... ;-)
Big green candle in #corn. Right after retail started selling the $CORN ETF. Interesting timing.
#oatt
People talk about “rains in the Plains,” but a large part of the winter wheat belt is still missing out.
Good/excellent fell again to 34% — one of the lowest ratings in decades.
Below-trend yield still looks likely.
#wheat #agwx #oatt #sizovreport
Funds are selling #wheat.
But US crop conditions are moving the other way.
Drought now covers 68% of wheat area - only 1 p.p. below 2022 extremes.
That year delivered one of the smallest crops in decades.
#oatt #sizovreport #oatt #agwx
Funds cut positions in major winter #wheat contracts last week. But their spring wheat long remains near record highs for recent years.
Just noise, or a more specific weather bet that later-planted spring wheat suffers more this season?
#oatt #agwx #wheat #sizovreport
Funds are selling #wheat.
But US crop conditions are moving the other way.
Drought now covers 68% of wheat area - only 1 p.p. below 2022 extremes.
That year delivered one of the smallest crops in decades.
#oatt #sizovreport #oatt #agwx
Here's something for #wheat bears.
The weather setup for Black Sea winter wheat looks good, especially in #Russia. Some areas had moisture shortages, but upcoming rains are likely to offset that.
Still, the crop is moving into a critical stage, and visibility remains limited.
Tankers on fire. Oil & gas fields on fire. Russian export terminals on fire.
Crude: +0.8%
#oott
We have a serious problem.
US winter #wheat enters spring in its worst condition in years after a sharp drop in crop ratings due to drought.
#oatt #sizovreport #agwx
Gradually, then suddenly… US #wheat crop conditions continue to deteriorate amid drought.
In Kansas - the top grower - the share of good/excellent wheat dropped again to 40% (-9 p.p YoY).
Conditions are likely to worsen further as rains are forecast to miss key western and central areas.
#oatt
Bloodbath!
Sounds like a good timing
Had a similar view, sold some zl and got stopped out before the reversal…
Reuters - President Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an agriculture event at the White House next week as his administration moves to finalize new biofuel blending quotas.
#oatt #soybeans
thanks
Interesting price action in #wheat today.
Outside markets are substantially weaker - crude and soybeans are down.
Yet funds are not rushing to sell wheat.
They were heavy sellers on the previous two Mondays.
Something to watch.
#oatt #sizovreport
i use those tools
probably will need to look into IB again (ugly!)
wonder if i can pull that data via api..
thanks!
appreciate it
can you recommend a good service for monitoring ag options iv?
smth to watch options flows, spikes in iv / oi, etc - would be nice as well
(i dont like what my broker has..)
Over the past two decades global food prices have spiked several times due to macro or supply shocks.
Which scenario are we entering now — something similar to 2021–22?
#oatt #oott #foodsecurity #Iran
“Russia stopped grain shipments to Iran.”
Days later: “Shipments resumed.”
The reality: noise!
Iran’s import program is largely done and the new crop is approaching.
Russian wheat shipments already dropped to ~60K tons in Jan, from a peak 880K/month.
Details here: sizov.report/reports/2886...
The #wheat / crude ratio is at its lowest level in years. Typically, this doesn’t last long.
If you believe in an ag rally, wheat could be one of the best bets - and potentially one of the strongest performers across commodities from here.
“Russia stopped grain shipments to Iran.”
Days later: “Shipments resumed.”
The reality: noise!
Iran’s import program is largely done and the new crop is approaching.
Russian wheat shipments already dropped to ~60K tons in Jan, from a peak 880K/month.
Details here: sizov.report/reports/2886...
true
2002-2008 #commodities supercycle:
#crude +619%
#corn +257%
#soybeans +266%
#wheat +279%
broad commodities index (CRB) +218%
#oatt #oott
Russia may be the biggest beneficiary of the Middle East war: oil, fertilizer, and #grains. Not a bad basket in times like these.
#commodities
—-
TRADERS SELLING RUSSIAN URALS AT PREMIUM OF $4-$5/BBL TO BRENT FOR INDIA DELIVERY, UP FROM STEEP DISCOUNTS PRIOR TO IRAN CONFLICT, SOURCES SAY - RTRS
corporate greed!
Funds have effectively erased their 2022–26 #wheat short.
+51K contracts last week — the 4th largest weekly purchase on record (largest since Jan 2018).
Net positioning has shifted to long.
Yet gross shorts remain above 200K contracts.
Russia’s #wheat price edge vs EU has largely disappeared.
SovEcon cuts 2025/26 exports to 45.4 mln t, lifts 2026/27 to 41.7 mln t. Russian offers now align with CVB, as the ruble firms.
Yet Feb shipments hit 3.3 mln t.
USDA unchanged.
Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-cuts...
#oatt
