Post-Tropical Cyclone #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 (FINAL): 1500 UTC 19 April 2026: Sinlaku becomes a post-tropical cyclone over the cold waters of the west central Pacific. This is the last advisory. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/post-tropi...
Severe Tropical Storm #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21: 1200 UTC 18 April 2026: Sinlaku weakens to a tropical storm. Expected to become post-tropical on Sunday. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...
Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19: 1200 UTC 17 April 2026: Sinlaku slowly moving away from the northernmost Marianas. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...
Primary his ass
After blasting #Tinian and #Saipan with #typhoon force winds for over 48 hrs (and tropical storm force winds for longer than that), #Sinlaku (#04W) is finally moving away from the populated Northern Mariana Islands. It'll cross the northernmost (uninhabited) islands before heading out to sea.
Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17: 1200 UTC 16 April 2026: Sinlaku finally moving away from the populated Northern Mariana Islands after relentlessly lashing Tinian and #Saipan for over two days. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...
Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 15 April 2026: #Typhoon conditions continuing on Tinian and #Saipan as Sinlaku moves slowly away from the islands. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...
Given that an AWS on Saipan reported pressures as low as 915 mb (after calibration) despite weakening, I confronted my worst enemy: math. I took JTWC best track data and other info from #Sinlaku at peak intensity and calculated a MSLP of 882 mb. This is probably wrong but I could see it being right.
Guam's radar seems to have been taken down for precautionary reasons but this last image from before then is pretty striking - once again, Tinian and Saipan are right smack in the middle of the eye of #Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W). (radar image courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social)
Some crazy satellite imagery of Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W ) - although it has weakened to a Category 4 #typhoon with 125 kt winds, it is still battering Tinian and Saipan in the Northern Marianas, and the large eye (still undergoing an ERC) is directly over BOTH islands. (images from Dapiya)
Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1200 UTC 14 April 2026: Eye of extremely dangerous Sinlaku passing directly over #Tinian and #Saipan. Extreme wind warning issued for those islands. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...
The National Weather Service in Guam has issued an extreme wind warning for Tinian and Saipan for #Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W). This is the earliest such warning on record.
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 4/13/26: Outer bands of Sinlaku moving over #Guam and the CNMI. Forecast to pass between #Tinian and #Saipan at or near Cat 5 strength late Tuesday night. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...
JTWC Jan-Apr Cat5s:
Surigae 195 mph Apr 17, 2021
Hester 185 mph Jan 1, 1953
#Sinlaku 185 mph Apr 12, 2026
Maysak 175 mph Mar 31, 2015
Thelma 175 mph Apr 20, 1956
Wutip 165 mph Feb 23, 2019
Isa 165 mph Apr 20, 1997
Mitag 160 mph Mar 5, 2002
Andy 160 mph Apr 21, 1989
Ophelia 160 mph Jan 13, 1958
Oh oops, I stand corrected
#Sinlaku ( #04W)'s 18Z data point in JTWC's best track has been adjusted to an intensity of 160 kts and pressure of 890 mb. Truly insane for a storm in April; this would be lower than Surigae in 2021 that bottomed out at 895 mb.
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0000 UTC 13 April 2026: Potentially catastrophic Category 5 Sinlaku strengthens a little more while moving northwestward toward the Marianas. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...
Still no signs of an eyewall replacement cycle with #Sinlaku, which continues to have an extremely impressive satellite signature. It should eventually start weakening as it moves over slightly cooler SSTs but it sure hasn't yet. Winds are still 155 kts.
#Sinlaku ( #04W) is an impressive and terrifying tropical cyclone, with winds of 150 kts. Realistically the intensity could be closer to 160-165 kts given sky high automated and manual Dvorak and D-PRINT estimates. Extremely dangerous situation unfolding for the CNMI.
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1500 UTC 12 April 2026: Sinlaku rapidly becomes a potentially catastrophic Cat 5 super typhoon. Typhoon warnings issued for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...
#Sinlaku's rapid intensification has been absolutely mind blowing. @UWCIMSS ADT analyzes it with a raw T-number of 7.7 (about 163 kts). Although the actual intensity isn't that high, it is very likely approaching super #typhoon strength. Very dangerous situation for #Guam and the CNMI.
Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 0000 UTC 12 April 2026: Sinlaku explosively intensifying and now a Category 3 typhoon. Additional rapid intensification likely today. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...
#Vaianu (#31P) appears to have transitioned back into a fully tropical cyclone not far from New Zealand. Despite SSTs of about 22°C, it has a deep warm core and a very compact inner core of convection with a small eye feature. These things don't normally happen in that area.
#Sinlaku (#04W) was upgraded to #typhoon status at 18Z, and it appears to be poised for rapid intensification. Microwave satellite imagery from about 1930Z suggests that an inner core has formed with a very small eye feature. This is bad news for #Guam.
I don't know, I think #Vaianu ( #31P) might be a tropical cyclone again. It still has a rather compact radius of maximum winds, a deep warm core, and plenty of deep convection near its center. It's certainly borderline.
#Vaianu (ex- #31P) continues to sport subtropical characteristics despite being over 22-23°C waters N of New Zealand, with a small core of deep convection just E of the center. Post-tropical Vaianu still packs winds of 55 kts and will bring dangerous conditions to NZ this weekend.
#Cyclone #Maila (#30P) has weakened at a spectacular rate, thanks to the combo of easterly shear and southwesterly flow associated with Tropical Storm #Sinlaku in the WPAC. It probably won't last much longer but the torrential rain threat will persist in Papua New Guinea this weekend.
Severe Tropical Storm #Sinlaku (#04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 10 April 2026: Sinlaku continues to strengthen as it batters Chuuk with tropical storm conditions. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...
Tropical Depression #04W – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 9 April 2026: Tropical storm warnings and typhoon watches issued for portions of Chuuk State. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...
While being "trapped" in the Solomon Sea would likely result in #Maila being sheared apart as environmental conditions become much less favorable, it would also result in a prodigious amount of rainfall for portions of Papua New Guinea. Definitely need to monitor this. 2/2
