The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global Versus Local Temperature* Abstract. This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting na

#QJE May 2026, #1, “The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global Versus Local Temperature,” by Bilal (@adrienbilal.bsky.social) and Känzig (@dkaenzig.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Figure shows impact responses of HICP components per COICOP classification to carbon policy shock, normalized to increase HICP energy by 1%. Shown is the point estimate with 90% confidence bands. Carbon pricing is widely regarded as an effective tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, yet it often faces strong public resistance. This column combines macroeconomic evidence with detailed household data to examine the distributional economic effects of carbon pricing in Europe. The authors find that the economic costs of carbon policy-induced energy price increases are economically meaningful and highly uneven across households, with young and low-income households bearing the largest burden. Importantly, these effects are driven primarily by declines in labour income rather than by higher consumer prices. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for distributional impacts when designing climate policy.

S Bigio, @dkaenzig.bsky.social, P Sánchez, & @conorwalsh.bsky.social show the economic costs of carbon policy-induced energy price increases are economically meaningful & highly uneven across households, w/ young and low-income households bearing the largest burden.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Thanks Andreas!

Super excited to see this out! It’s been quite a ride. Many thanks to the editors and referees—the paper improved enormously through the review process. And huge thanks to @adrienbilal.bsky.social for being the best co-author one could hope for!

GitHub - echolab-stanford/heat: R package heat: Harmonized Environmental Exposure Aggregation Tools R package heat: Harmonized Environmental Exposure Aggregation Tools - echolab-stanford/heat

Excited to share a new R package: 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 🌡️

`heat` makes it easier to work with climate or other gridded data in applied research, providing a comprehensive + optimized set of tools to compute environmental exposures for admin boundaries or points from gridded/point data.

github.com/echolab-stan...

Max has a great portfolio and lots of interesting stuff in the pipeline.

For instance, he has this very cool paper on the economic and political effects of carbon pricing in Europe: drive.google.com/file/d/1NvVV...

My co-author 𝗠𝗮𝘅 𝗞𝗼𝗻𝗿𝗮𝗱𝘁 is on the academic job market! Max is a fantastic empirical macroeconomist working on the interrelations between the economy, financial markets and climate change. If you are hiring in macro or macro-finance, take a close look at him!

👋I'm on the #EconJobMarket!

❓My JMP, together with @dkaenzig.bsky.social, Lixing Wang and Donghai Zhang studies how green innovation varies over the business cycle.

💡We find that green innovation is countercyclical, while non-green innovation is procyclical.

🔗https://tinyurl.com/4b45h979

🧵👇

The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...

Very useful discussion on the perils of using micro/cross-sectional parameter estimates in inferring the aggregate effects of policies/shocks. This is pervasive in Economics, yet the two effects can even have the opposite signs. (Example in next post.) voxdev.org/topic/method...

Thanks to @equitablegrowth.bsky.social for the generous support! Excited to study how global supply chain shocks affect markets and the broader economy. #EGgrantee #EconSky

Equitable Growth awards funding to early career scholars studying the effects of economic inequality Equitable Growth has awarded funding to seven early career scholars seeking to better understand the effects of economic inequality in the United States.

🚨Meet the 2025 Early Career #EGgrantee(s)!
Seven scholars will get funding to study economic inequality. Projects range in topic, from the housing crisis to child care to supply chain resilience. Stay tuned this week to learn about each grantee and their research.
equitablegrowth.org/equitable-gr...

Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires (Forthcoming Article) - Wage rigidity is an important explanation for unemployment fluctuations. In benchmark models wages for new hires are key, but there is limited evidence on this margin. We use w...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires" by Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

War jeden Cent Wert!:-)

I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on.

Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts.

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Showing empirically that green innovation is countercyclical and explaining it with a model where backloaded profits make green research and development less sensitive to downturns, from Diego R. Känzig, @maxkonradt.bsky.social, Lixing Wang, and Donghai Zhang https://www.nber.org/papers/w34041

I will be presenting some new work on climate policy uncertainty, joint with my amazing co-authors Costas Gavriilidis, Ramya Raghavan and Jim Stock

Very much looking forward to today's workshop on Macro Public Finance at the @nber.org SI. Honored to be among a fantastic group of speakers and discussants. If you are in Cambridge, drop by! www.nber.org/conferences/...

SI 2025 Workshop on Methods and Applications for Dynamic Equilibrium Models

More info on the session and slides can be found here: www.nber.org/conferences/...

If you are in Cambridge, don't miss out on this session including fascinating papers by @mickeygb.bsky.social
and @benmoll.bsky.social

We also study how important these shocks were in the recent inflationary episode, the role of monetary policy in the transmission of these shocks, as well as the sectoral impacts.

This has also substantial effects on the U.S. economy

Using this as an instrument in a semi-structural model of global shipping markets, we document pervasive macroeconomic effects:

We quantify the market impact of these disruptions by measuring how shipping rates change in a narrow window around the events. In this way, we obtain some plausibly exogenous variation in shipping rates

We perform a detailed narrative account of disruptive events at these choke points, including collisions, groundings or extreme weather events. I am sure you remember Ever Given, but there are many more:

Our idea: Global trade is heavily reliant on maritime trade, which in turn relies on a few key choke points: the Panama and the Suez canal

Shipping costs are a key barometer for supply chain pressures. However, they are influenced by both demand and supply. How can we isolate the effects of an exogenous supply chain disruption?

Very excited to present some new work on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain disruptions at the @nber.org SI, joint with my brilliant student Ramya Raghavan!

Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on X: "SED-ing in København, looking forward to the session on inflation this Friday, sharing it with an amazing group of economists. Presenting our paper with Diego @drkaenzig on Profits, Inflation, and AD (and "Greed?"). Sometimes misunderstood, hopefully increasingly less so :) https://t.co/w1hS1uB5Tt" / X SED-ing in København, looking forward to the session on inflation this Friday, sharing it with an amazing group of economists. Presenting our paper with Diego @drkaenzig on Profits, Inflation, and AD (and "Greed?"). Sometimes misunderstood, hopefully increasingly less so :) https://t.co/w1hS1uB5Tt

And the one and only @florinbilbiie.bsky.social is presenting our work on profits, inflation and aggregate demand: x.com/FlorinBilbii...

I also have wonderful co-authors presenting some new joint work. @adrienbilal.bsky.social is presenting a new project on climate change and monetary policy

Really looking forward to this year's #SEDmeeting
in Copenhagen. If you are around, check out this cool session on shipping trends and disruptions, happening this Saturday from 13:30 to 15:00: