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Posts by Duncan O’Brien

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Halting predicted vertebrate declines requires tackling multiple drivers of biodiversity loss Global vertebrate populations decline faster in the presence of multiple threats compared to single threats.

🚨Paper alert🚨
Very happy to see our paper published in @science.org #ScienceAdv.

Very greatful to have worked with such a great team @duncanobrien.bsky.social #tomJohnson @robinfreeman.bsky.social #ValentinaMarconi #LouiseMcRae @expecocons.bsky.social

👇Check the main findings below!

2 months ago 39 16 3 2
Redirecting

Would dynamic multivariate panel models fit the bill?

doi.org/10.1016/j.al...

Software: docs.ropensci.org/dynamite/

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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🚨 Two funded PhDs (one int'l, one UK) - study coral restoration & corporate sustainability with us in Lancaster! Enquiries welcome, January 30, please share widely! 🚨

🪸🐠 Coral restoration (int'l): www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

🌴📊 Corporate sustainability (UK): www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

4 months ago 12 20 0 3

🚨 Job alert 🚨 Postdoc position in ecological forecasting 📈 as part of the Horizon Europe OSCARS call. The postdoc will be based in lovely Sevilla (fantastic place to live) and will include working closely with several European forecasting projects. Apply by Dec 11! 🌎🧪 globalchangeeco.com/jobs

4 months ago 20 34 0 0
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Funded PhD open to UK-domiciled, home fee applicants of Black African, Black Caribbean or other Black or mixed Black heritage - The legacy impacts of extreme climate events on animal behaviour, physio... PhD Project - Funded PhD open to UK-domiciled, home fee applicants of Black African, Black Caribbean or other Black or mixed Black heritage - The legacy impacts of extreme climate events on animal beh...

PhD position at the University of Bristol (with me!) entitled 'The legacy impacts of extreme climate events on animal behaviour, physiology, and fitness'.

Fully funded and is available for UK-domiciled students of black heritage. Please reach out with any questions.

tinyurl.com/5n7s8yp9

6 months ago 15 25 0 0
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🧊 Did your model freeze in time? Let’s bring it back to life!
Join our hands-on workshop “Building Near-Term Iterative Forecasting Workflows” at #TIBS2026 – Aarhus, 6 Jan 2026 🌍
We’ll explore how to turn static predictions into dynamic, self-updating forecasts. @paniw.bsky.social

5 months ago 13 11 1 2

I would highly recommend this group (it’s mine...) and city!

Very happy I to chat about being a postdoc with @expecocons.bsky.social

6 months ago 1 0 0 0
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National Environmental Monitoring Conference - British Ecological Society The NEMC returns for its second year focusing on: From insight to impact: building the UK environmental monitoring community

Join a UK-wide environmental monitoring community at #NEMC2025 to help shape the future of evidence-based environmental action.

Session proposals welcome on habitat condition, plastics, forever chemicals, impacts on people & wellbeing & urban monitoring.

Find out more:🔗 tinyurl.com/5369kwhf

8 months ago 2 1 0 0
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Image of a Puffin by Sarah Kelman/BTO alongside wording over the image that reads: We're hiring. Senior Research Ecologist. Bioacoustics Support Officer. Seabird Monitoring Support Officer. www.bto.org/jobs

Image of a Puffin by Sarah Kelman/BTO alongside wording over the image that reads: We're hiring. Senior Research Ecologist. Bioacoustics Support Officer. Seabird Monitoring Support Officer. www.bto.org/jobs

Join us at BTO! Discover jobs and apply at www.bto.org/jobs

9 months ago 68 40 0 0

Interested in doing a PhD? We have a paid opportunity to join us for a Research Experience Placement - a ~2 month project with some fun data collection and analysis on Manx shearwaters. You need to be a registered undergraduate to apply. Deadline 25th June, starts in July. Get in touch, link below!

10 months ago 2 1 1 0
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Data Analyst - Ecological Modelling | 02 April, 2025 | Jobs and careers with West of England Combined Authority Jobs and careers with West of England Combined Authority - The West of England Mayoral Combined Authority (MCA) is seeking to appoint on a fixed term basis (until September 2026) a data analyst/scient...

🚨 We're hiring!🚨

Looking for someone interested in modelling biodiversity trends to work on the interface between academia and policy.

careersearch.westofengland-ca.gov.uk/jobs/job/Dat...

1 year ago 2 7 1 0
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EcologicalNetworksDynamics.jl: A Julia package to simulate the temporal dynamics of complex ecological networks Species interactions play a crucial role in shaping biodiversity, species coexistence, population dynamics, community stability and ecosystem functioning. Our understanding of the role of the dive...

Get simulating! #Biodiversity / #foodweb dynamics with #julialang. Classic bioenergetic model, consolidation of lots of add-ons & super fast.

Very happy to share this, a result of amazing collaborators and a rich history of model development.

besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

1 year ago 30 12 1 0

@theseabirdgroup.bsky.social

1 year ago 1 0 0 0
Poster of PhD advert about role gulls play in spreading disease and antimicrobial resistance. More info: https://www.findaphd.com/phds/project/what-role-do-gulls-play-in-spreading-disease-and-anti-microbial-resistance-nerc-gw4-dtp-phd-studentship-for-september-2025-entry-ref-5431/?p178297

Poster of PhD advert about role gulls play in spreading disease and antimicrobial resistance. More info: https://www.findaphd.com/phds/project/what-role-do-gulls-play-in-spreading-disease-and-anti-microbial-resistance-nerc-gw4-dtp-phd-studentship-for-september-2025-entry-ref-5431/?p178297

Exciting PhD opportunity with @neeltjeboogert.bsky.social , @padpadpadpad.bsky.social (Exeter) and myself (Bristol) on gulls, their microbiomes, and role in transmitting disease.

Details below - deadline 13 January!

1 year ago 46 47 2 0
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Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference for Multivariate Longitudinal Data Easy-to-use and efficient interface for Bayesian inference of complex panel (time series) data using dynamic multivariate panel models by Helske and Tikka (2024) <doi:10.1016/j.alcr.2024.100617>. The ...

Would dynamite (docs.ropensci.org/dynamite/) help with this or is it too far removed from the SEM framework?

1 year ago 0 0 1 0
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Stage introducing the time lag session

Stage introducing the time lag session

Looking forward to what is (in my opinion) the most under appreciated component in ecosystem management/conservation - time lags #BES2024

1 year ago 3 0 0 0

Heading up to #BES2024 today in Liverpool. Hopefully see lots of you there, and if you are going to be around why not drop in and see some of the group's talks (on #resilience, #seabirds, and #rewilding)

@britishecolsoc.bsky.social

1 year ago 8 1 2 0

I highlighted this in the paper for ordered beta regression, but I think many don't know this:

you can estimate ordbetareg *just fine* without obs at the bounds (0 or 1).

Maybe your current sample doesn't have 0/1s... but future samples could! Ordbetareg works fine for *any* bounded data.

#rstats

1 year ago 3 1 0 0

Feature 1 would be my new feature preference. Very excited to hear that it’s (potentially) coming.

1 year ago 1 0 0 0
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Planktonic functional diversity changes in synchrony with lake ecosystem state Using species-level plankton trait and abundance data from five highly monitored lakes, we determined the timing of functional diversity change relative to ecosystem state/functioning. Simple cross-c....

Completely agree, and it’s likely the challenge of empirically estimating them. I’ve had a few ideas on how to do so (doi.org/10.1111/gcb....), but think many methods are inappropriate for most ecological time series.

Do you have any opinions about the best approaches for identifying time lags?

1 year ago 1 1 1 0
Mixture Modeling

<Trying to decide between two data generating processes>

¿Porqué no los dos?

<celebration>

It’s time for mixture models.

HTML: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
PDF: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...

1 year ago 5 4 2 1