#Invest97L now 45mph #Tropicalstorm #Lorenzo and will stay out at sea with no land threat and to peak at 70mph or even low end C1 #Hurricane before weakening!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #al97 #97l #tropicalstormlorenzo #HurricaneLorenzo #Hurricaneseason #hurricaneseason2025
D135 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2AM EDT
#Invest97L has 70% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 2 days 80% in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #97L #Lorenzo
#97L has increased in organization today and now has a 70% chance of development in the open Atlantic. No threat to any land.
D134 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2AM EDT
New AOI now #Invest97L has 40% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 2 days 50% in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #97L #Lorenzo
D133 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
New AOI has 30% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 2 days 50% in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #invest97L #97L #Lorenzo
D134 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
New AOI has 20% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 2 days 40% in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #invest97L #97L #Lorenzo
Invest #97L has been declared in the eastern Atlantic this evening. It is not a threat to land. Next name on the list is Lorenzo.
D133 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
New AOI has 10% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 2 days 30% in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #invest97L #97L #Lorenzo
D133 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2am EDT
New AOI has 20% chance in the MDR to become a TC in 7 days and hopefully stays away from any land
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkywx #hurricaneseason #Al97 #invest97L #97L #Lorenzo
Invest #97L has developed into Tropical Storm #Erin. As noted by @pppapin.bsky.social in the Advisory 1 forecast discussion from NHC, the ocean near Erin isn't all that warm (26-27°C) but warmer waters lie ahead of the newly-minted tropical cyclone (TC).
A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that developed within the Subtropical Jet Stream over Northern Australia will likely pass over the Atlantic ~Aug 20
This will favor more opportunities for tropical development late month as a series of strong African Easterly Waves immediately follow behind #97L
The 12Z ATCF update has upgraded Invest #97L to a 40 kt tropical storm, which would be #Erin. I would expect NHC to begin advisories at 11:00am today.
There will likely be at least more opportunities for tropical development immediately behind #97L as a Kelvin, Rossby, and MJO wave simultaneously pass over Africa this week.
Also, upstream wave dispersion from #97L will only help further amplify the AEW train over Africa
TROPICS UPDATE: The tropical Disturbance tagged Invest #97L in the eastern Atlantic is on the cusp of become a tropical depression or #Erin. It's going to fight the dust for much of this week, but once it's near or north of the Caribbean, it looks likely to intensify. More at HurricaneIntel.com
Upper environment for Invest #97L is quite favorable for the next 4 to 5 days, with dual outflow channels and a potent upper level anticyclone. Given how convectively active it looks, odds are increasing for a significant hurricane before encountering increased shear from an upper trough.
Sadly, Invest #97L has resulted in six deaths on the Cabo Verde Islands.
expressodasilhas.cv/pais/2025/08...
8 AM outlook raises development chances for #97L to 90/90. Do we see a TD at 11 AM? Seems probable.
A new AOI in the NW Atlantic that will not impact anyone. Nothing for the Gulf.
D72 ATL #HurricaneSeason 8am EDT
#Invest97L in #CaboVerde has 90% chance to be TC in 2 and 7 days in the E MDR
#LeewardIslands #PuertoRico #USVI #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos #DominicanRepublic #Bermuda interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #AL97 #97L #Erin #USVIwx #PRwx
Flooding from Invest #97L caused 6 deaths in the Cabo Verde Islands.
Probably would have been a good idea to use the “PTC” designation here.
expressodasilhas.cv/pais/2025/08...
Disturbance AL97 aka Invest-97L seen with vigorous convection this morning just west of Santo Antão (yellow outline), Cape Verde #97L youtube.com/shorts/ryBdd...
Good morning! No upgrade yet for #97L. The 2 AM outlook has raised development chances yet again to 70% over 48 hours and 90% over 7 days.
D72 ATL #HurricaneSeason 2am EDT
#Invest97L in #CaboVerde has 70% chance to be TC in 48h,90% in 7 days in MDR
#LeewardIslands #PuertoRico #USVI #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos #DominicanRepublic #Bermuda interest to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #AL97 #97L #Erin #Fernand #USVIwx #PRwx
TROPICS 8/10/25: I would not be surprised to see Invest 97-L become a named storm overnight or tomorrow. It looks a lot more impressive on satellite today compared to yesterday. IR satellite of 97-L is what is shown in image 1. #tropics #97L #Erin
Where is #97L going? Hard to say, as with most long track storms. However, we have a few hints as to where it may track while in the MDR, which can give us a better idea of where it will be later. The latitude at which it turns west will be the first.
I suspect the low-level/convergent portion of a Kelvin Wave is already hitting invest #97L out over the Cabo Verde Islands, giving it an additional instability boost against marginal SSTs
Last night's ECMWF 700mb fcst for 0z this evening depicts this quite well
misva.aeris-data.fr/products/syn...
0z spaghetti plots are more clustered together compared to 18z. Still seeing the northern turn on most. #97L
D71 ATL #HurricaneSeason 8pm EDT
#Invest97L in #CaboVerde has 60% chance to be TC in 48h,90% in 7 days in MDR
#LeewardIslands #PuertoRico #USVI #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos #DominicanRepublic #Bermuda interest to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #AL97 #97L #Erin #Fernand #USVIwx #PRwx
The 8 PM outlook is out. NHC is not biting on #97L yet. Development chances have increased to 60% in the near term and remain 90% over the next 7 days.
