Glenfarne's Seinfeld Moment: There is no gas pipeline. - With All Due Respect? There will not be an Alaska natural gas pipeline from Glenfarne. This entire exercise has been a scene from Seinfeld.

Podcast - Andrew Halcro "With All Due Respect?"

"Glenfarne's Seinfeld Moment: There is no gas pipeline."

www.buzzsprout.com/1773395/epis...

The Friday column: The PFD debate We wade into the PFD debate that took place this week in House Finance by calculating the impact on middle-, lower-, AND upper-income families of using PFD cuts to close the state's budget gap

This Week's Column| We wade into the PFD debate that took place this week in House Finance by calculating the impact on middle-, lower-, AND upper-income families of using PFD cuts to close the state’s budget gap. #akleg

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $105, ahead of both Brent (+$.84) and Brent/WTI avg ($5.16). #akleg

This should be a huge red flag warning for Alaska ‼️ #akleg

this is such an inflammatory bill and shit response.

I haven't really said much on this lately, but a big reason I'm processing every meeting is because #akleg sucks and oversight about as much as SOA does at providing consistent facts and figures.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.37% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.08% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $7 (+$307mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg

Join us today! #akleg

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 76% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 8% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $81. #akleg

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#akleg

HB101 is a bill that passed #akleg House unanimously & now is stuck in Sen Judiciary. It would criminalize older adults having sex w/ 16 & 17-year-olds & would make it easier for victims this age to get safety & justice. Keeley makes a cogent argument for it in her article & ours will be out soon.

Wow this is sad. The only way we can see systemic change in Alaska is to elect a better government. We need to get rid of people like Dunleavy. Obviously MAGA politicians aren’t going to help. We need a veto proof majority of sane people in the #akleg too.

Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.37% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.08% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $7 (+$307mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $5), mid (⬆️ $1) & long-term (⬇️ $2) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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#AlaskaSky
#AkLeg
#Hegsrapist
And soldiers in Alaska, especially Fairbanks, have an even harder time acclimating to the long dark winters, THIS IS NOT GOOD.

Reporting From Alaska- PFD posturers, with an eye on election, propose giant deficit Six members of the finance committee earned honors as PFD Posturers this week by claiming the state can afford to spend $2.4 billion on dividends and burn through half of the Constitutional Budget Res...

PFD posturers, with an eye on election, propose giant deficit

"It is dishonest for this group to fail to mention the consequences of big dividends ... is based on something other than a compulsion to tell people what they might want to hear."

www.dermotcole.com/reportingfro...

A $3,800 PFD is INSANE. They’re drunk on war revenue. The reason the State of Alaska is broke with crumbling infrastructure unable to pay out large PFD’s responsibly is because Republicans refuse to tax oil, gas, and mining in accordance with their constitutional obligations. #akleg

Big shoutout to my intern, Karley Thrun. (the one in red!) She's a freshman at UAF studying political science, and it's been a pleasure having her on the team. The future is bright for you, Karley. Keep up the great work! #akleg

🧵 The House Finance Committee is back with the rest of the amendments on House Bill 91, the marijuana tax bill.

As a recap, the bill would cut the tax to a flat $12.50 per ounce, then transition to a sales tax in 2028.

📺: www.ktoo.org/video/gavel/...

#akleg

The Friday column: Why Governor Dunleavy’s sales tax takes much less from middle and lower-income Alaska families than Representative Galvin’s income/education tax Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why.

This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg

Call to demand Anchorage USCIS stop targeting children (in this case, the overseas-born minor child of a U.S. veteran), and that’s Alaska Department of Corrections stops coordinating with ICE! #AkLeg #Alaska #AlaskaSky #FuckICE

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

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Now up in House Finance are amendments to HB 91, the bill seeking to lower the state's marijuana tax rate and eventually replace it with a sales tax.

The first amendment would delay the implementation dates from 2027 to 2028. It would remove some tracking changes that were expensive.

#akleg

🧵 Wowza. In the House Finance Committee, they're hearing a bill trying to get the state to pay its contracts on time.

The state says one division was taking 98 days to pay.

Why?

Because, in part, the division responsible for those payments had 100% turnover last year.

#akleg

The reason we have a hard time becoming excited about #AKLNG. Even under best-case ("base") cost assumptions, price levels exceed projected (futures market) JKM levels. Materially worse at more realistic cost levels. #akleg

It’s a good day for the #akleg to fire our Acting AG.

Alaska State Public Opinion Message System: Communicate with your legislators

Please tell the #akleg not to confirm Acting AG Cox
www.akleg.gov/poms/