Wow this is sad. The only way we can see systemic change in Alaska is to elect a better government. We need to get rid of people like Dunleavy. Obviously MAGA politicians aren’t going to help. We need a veto proof majority of sane people in the #akleg too.

Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.37% v PFC 7.63%
* 3-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 9.78%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.08% v PFC 13.14%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $7 (+$307mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $5), mid (⬆️ $1) & long-term (⬇️ $2) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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#AlaskaSky
#AkLeg
#Hegsrapist
And soldiers in Alaska, especially Fairbanks, have an even harder time acclimating to the long dark winters, THIS IS NOT GOOD.

Reporting From Alaska- PFD posturers, with an eye on election, propose giant deficit Six members of the finance committee earned honors as PFD Posturers this week by claiming the state can afford to spend $2.4 billion on dividends and burn through half of the Constitutional Budget Res...

PFD posturers, with an eye on election, propose giant deficit

"It is dishonest for this group to fail to mention the consequences of big dividends ... is based on something other than a compulsion to tell people what they might want to hear."

www.dermotcole.com/reportingfro...

A $3,800 PFD is INSANE. They’re drunk on war revenue. The reason the State of Alaska is broke with crumbling infrastructure unable to pay out large PFD’s responsibly is because Republicans refuse to tax oil, gas, and mining in accordance with their constitutional obligations. #akleg

Big shoutout to my intern, Karley Thrun. (the one in red!) She's a freshman at UAF studying political science, and it's been a pleasure having her on the team. The future is bright for you, Karley. Keep up the great work! #akleg

🧵 The House Finance Committee is back with the rest of the amendments on House Bill 91, the marijuana tax bill.

As a recap, the bill would cut the tax to a flat $12.50 per ounce, then transition to a sales tax in 2028.

📺: www.ktoo.org/video/gavel/...

#akleg

The Friday column: Why Governor Dunleavy’s sales tax takes much less from middle and lower-income Alaska families than Representative Galvin’s income/education tax Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why.

This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg

Call to demand Anchorage USCIS stop targeting children (in this case, the overseas-born minor child of a U.S. veteran), and that’s Alaska Department of Corrections stops coordinating with ICE! #AkLeg #Alaska #AlaskaSky #FuckICE

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

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Now up in House Finance are amendments to HB 91, the bill seeking to lower the state's marijuana tax rate and eventually replace it with a sales tax.

The first amendment would delay the implementation dates from 2027 to 2028. It would remove some tracking changes that were expensive.

#akleg

🧵 Wowza. In the House Finance Committee, they're hearing a bill trying to get the state to pay its contracts on time.

The state says one division was taking 98 days to pay.

Why?

Because, in part, the division responsible for those payments had 100% turnover last year.

#akleg

The reason we have a hard time becoming excited about #AKLNG. Even under best-case ("base") cost assumptions, price levels exceed projected (futures market) JKM levels. Materially worse at more realistic cost levels. #akleg

It’s a good day for the #akleg to fire our Acting AG.

Alaska State Public Opinion Message System: Communicate with your legislators

Please tell the #akleg not to confirm Acting AG Cox
www.akleg.gov/poms/

Reporting From Alaska- Alaska signs onto amicus brief echoing racist claims about birthright citizenship Temporary Attorney General Stephen Cox has inserted himself into the national debate over birthright citizenship, saying that babies born to people in the U.S. illegally are damaging Alaska.

Alaska signs onto amicus brief echoing with racist claims about birthright citizenship.

Acting AG Cox only likes the parts of the constitution that work for his twisted ideology. He’s not representing Alaska. The #akleg needs to get rid of him.

When is the #akleg going to kick AG Cox to the curb? This isn’t the first unconstitutional disgusting move by Acting AG Cox.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.34% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 16.96% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.73% v PFC 12.43%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $3 (+$132mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg

Every day we learn of another disgusting amicus brief that Alaskas ACTING AG Stephen J Cox does in the name of hate. He hates the 14th Amendment and doesn’t represent Alaska. Why is he still here? Why hasn’t he been sent home by the #akleg? Tell them you don’t want him confirmed:

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/75% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -5kbd (-1%) v. F'cast.

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Once again Alaska is in a horrible position when people all over a state with very poor voting access will most likely be put at risk due to Lt Gov Dahlstrom, election denier Carol Beecher, and MAGA Acting AG Cox. Who is fighting Alaskan voters from Trump’s election rigging? #akleg

House Finance is back in session this evening to work on more amendments to the state FY27 operating budget. Watch live on KTOO 360TV or at gavelalaska.org. #akleg

dear god. #akleg #alaskasky

The Friday column: Why Governor Dunleavy’s sales tax takes much less from middle and lower-income Alaska families than Representative Galvin’s income/education tax Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why.

This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg

Exports as a %ANS| Due to COVID, a material share of ANS was exported to Asian (primarily Chinese) mkts from 2Q 2020 to 1Q 2022. However, from shortly after the start of the Ukraine War (Apr22), most has gone to the USWC, w/ only sporadic dels (CY26 YTD: 0%) to Asia. #akleg